August 23, 2018--Trump Jurer

One thing many thought about as the Manafort jury's deliberations dragged into a fourth day was concern that one or more jurors were such fervent Trump supporters that no matter how overwhelming the evidence of Manafort's guilt there would be no verdict, no guilty verdict. The jury would be hung on all 18 counts. 

It turns out that this concern was well founded. It almost happened. But nonetheless, Trump's former campaign manager was found guilt on eight counts.

Unless you take an occasional surreptitious peek at Fox News to see what they are up to (I do), how they are spinning things, you would have missed what a Manafort juror of the concerning type had to say about their deliberations. Particularly how, in spite of driving to the courthouse in Alexandria every morning, wearing her Make America Great hat, conflicted as to whether or not she should hold out to the very bitter end in spite of the accumulating evidence that point to Manafort's guilt, in spite of this, she voted guilty on those eight counts. And likely would have found him guilty on the ten others but didn't "need" to as there was another Trump juror who did hold out for a not guilty verdict and thus there was a hung jury on the other counts.

The juror, Paula Duncan, interviewed on Fox said--

"Finding Mr. Manafort guilty was hard for me. I wanted him to be innocent, I really wanted him to be innocent, but he wasn't. That's the part of a juror. You have to have due diligence and deliberate and look at the evidence and come up with an informed and intelligent decision, which I did."

As scary as the prospect is of a stealth Trumpian on this and upcoming juries (there are a lot of them across America--perhaps a third of the adult population), imperfect as it is, in spite of the relentless incitement emanating from Fox and other media sources, the system such as it is can work. There is something almost sacred to many when one enters the jury room to deliberate. Paula Duncan is a living example.

Paula Duncan

August 7, 2018--Under the Bus or Taking a Bullet?

Donald Trump in a Sunday morning tweet appeared to throw his son, Donald Jr., under the bus. 

He pled him guilty to committing a federal crime that forbids a candidate for the presidency or his agents to accept any form of material help from a foreign citizen or government. This includes both direct donations of money or in-kind assistance that has monetary value. 

Asking Russian agents to help gather "dirt" about Hillary Clinton ("an opponent") surely qualifies. 

The pertinent section of the federal code (52 U.S. Code 30121) reads as follows--


(a)Prohibition It shall be unlawful for—

(1)a foreign national, directly or indirectly, to make—

(A)

a contribution or donation of money or other thing of value, or to make an express or implied promise to make a contribution or donation, in connection with a Federal, State, or local election;

(B)

a contribution or donation to a committee of a political party; or

(C)

an expenditure, independent expenditure, or disbursement for an electioneering communication (within the meaning of section 30104(f)(3) of this title); or

(2)

a person to solicit, accept, or receive a contribution or donation described in subparagraph (A) or (B) of paragraph (1) from a foreign national.

Sunday morning Trump tweeted--

Fake News reporting, a complete fabrication, that I am concerned about the meeting my wonderful son, Donald, had in Trump Tower. This was a meeting to get information on an opponent, totally legal and done all the time in politics - and it went nowhere. I did not know about it. 

8:35 AM - Aug 5, 2018

This would appear to be Trump throwing his progeny under the bus to save his own skin when he denied he knew about his son's meeting in Trump Tower. If there is anyone to blame, this tweet appears to say, it is his "wonderful son."

One thing Trump gets right--gathering dirt, or engaging in "oppostion research" (oppo) in a political campaign is done all the time and is not per se illegal. On the other hand, seeking assistance in this by foreign agents is seriously against federal law.

This, however, is not going to be the end of the story. First, some possible context--

It is not a coincidence that all sorts of information is just now leaking, flooding out of Robert Mueller's thus-far leakproof investigation.

This is because he is following the Justice Department 60-day rule--not to report publicly less than 60 days before Election Day about an investigation that might include candidates for office. FBI director James Comey violated this unofficial rule just weeks before the 2016 presidential election when he reported out about allegations that Hillary Clinton used a private server for her official work as Secretary of State.

If Mueller is to observe the 60-day rule, if he has indictments to announce before November, he has to get that done by Labor Day. Thus, he is likely right now, as part of the discovery process, telling people he has been investigating that he is about to indict them. This doubtlessly includes Trump Jr. If the young Donald has been thus informed you know he shared that news with his father.

Among other consequential matters affecting Trump's state of mind--the Manafort trial, the Michael Cohen tapes, the subpoenaing of Trump's accountant (Allen Weisselberg)--the impending indictment of Donald Jr. has father Trump in a panic. As I mentioned yesterday this unraveling has drawn Hope Hicks back into the mix. And has Trump flailing about in a tweet storm. Including Sunday's in which for the first time he admitted there was collusion. After months of denial, even though collusion occurred, according to Fox News's and Trump's and his people's twisted logic, it is not a crime. 

As my grandmother used to say, "We'll see."

In spite of Trump reflexively dumping all of this on his son, if there are three or four people in the world he cares about (and this may be stretching the limits of his caring) it is his boys, Ivanka, and again Hope Hicks. 

If true, expect at least one of two things--

First, he will begin to churn out a bushel of presidential pardons. For  all his children as well as for Michael Cohen, Paul Manafort, his accountant, and of course Hope.

If and when he does this there will be the expected outcry from all Democrats, a few Republicans, and Fox. Whether this will turn out to be more than a week of stories will depend on how it is absorbed by his base--35 percent of the adult public. Will they let him get away with this "murder" as they would if he shot someone on Fifth Avenue?

For the most part I think they would. The pardons will be spun as the actions of a loving father who acts to protect his children from the "enemies of the people" and rogue players such as Mueller, who are leading the biggest "witch hunt" in American history. Forget Salem for the moment and the abuses of Joseph McCarthy.

Then there is the Watergate alternative--Trump seems sincerely to want to meet one-on-one with Mueller and to tell him his version of the story. This won't work and I suspect even Trump with his colossal ego is aware of this. More than anyone else (except for Putin) he knows Mueller has the goods on him. Mueller may have already told Trump's attorneys he is about to be cited as a target of his investigation and soon may be designated an unindicted co-conspirator.

Why then does Trump appear to be so insistent on meeting with Mueller? 

Perhaps, with Hope Hicks counseling and soothing him, he will agree to make the biggest deal of his life--taking a page from Richard Nixon, he would agree to resign the presidency in exchange for Mueller pulling the plug on the rest of the investigation.

Or a third version--Trump and Mueller agree to both options: a host of pardons plus a deal that includes resignation.

In this admittedly unlikely scenario, instead of others taking a bullet for Trump he takes one to protect the very few people he cares about. 

And then he takes a victory lap, relishing in the cheers of his people as he declares his mission as president accomplished.

August 6, 2018--All the President's Women

Rona can be skeptical. Even on occasion a little cynical. And so when it was widely reported that First Lady Melania Trump appeared to be showing signs of independent thought, when First Daughter Ivanka in public spoke critical words about her Daddy, and then when it was reported that Hope Hicks on Saturday was seen sneaking onto Air Force One to join Trump on a flight to a rally in Ohio, Rona was quick to conclude that all female family and special friends, all hands were urgently summoned on deck as recent polls show Trump's support among college-educated women approaching zero percent. He can't win reelection with only middle-age, to quote Trump, "low-IQ" white guys on board.

First the First Daughter--

Ivanka went a version of rogue last week. This was previewed by her and husband Jared showing up again at their senior-advisor White House jobs. They had been AWOL for months while things were unraveling as if to stay as far away as possible from it and the widening stain. Perhaps concluding they had nothing to lose before they themselves were scooped up in the same net.

And though Ivanka refused to answer probing questions during her interview last week with AXIOS, she did concede that the separation of young children from their parents at the Texas-Mexico border was "a low point" in the Trump presidency and that she is"vehemently opposed" to family separation. 

Then there was Melania-- 

After porn star Stormy Daniels and Playboy model Karen McDougal hit the headlines with their claims that Trump paid them off so they wouldn't reveal their trysting, as if she were hearing this for the first time, the First Lady absented herself for a number of weeks (including to the hospital), made a couple of solo visits to the border, and while there--contravening Trump's policies--she showed some empathy for the plight of migrants.

Then, when she resumed traveling with Trump and appeared with him at the NATO and EU meetings and after that the visit to England and the Helsinki summit with Putin, on the flight home, the president caught her sneaking a look at CNN. He went ballastic, demanding that on AFOne, Fox News was to be on all TVs all the time. Melania demurred saying loud enough for many to hear that she'll watch what she wants, thank you very much.

And then, after Trump railed against LeBron James, when Melania said she'd be open to visiting with him at the school he is funding in Ohio for at-risk kids, Twitter and switchboards lit up across the country, suggesting that James is more untouchable than the Pope, who, during the campaign Trump got away with trashing. Sniping at James, though, calling him "low IQ" (Trump's favorite epithet for black people) may be a red line that Trump crossed at great risk as LeBron is very popular among Trump's base of dead-enders.

Finally, Hope Hicks--

This one I don't get. If they are fooling around, Air Force One is not the best place for that. But perhaps because the Mueller probe is closing in fast (there's the Manafort trial underway, new threatening information about the collusion meeting in Trump Tower (Trump finally admitting yesterday it was about getting dirt on "an opponent"), Michael Cohn leaking one of his tapes, and the deposing of Trump's H&R Block accountant, the president is unraveling. The various rallies at which he recently appeared exposed a seemingly desperate man fighting for his life. Holding Hope's hand and being assured by her how wonderful he is and how unfair everyone is being to him could be a version of just what the doctor ordered. That is, if Trump had a real doctor.

So, in spite of Rona thinking this is a carefully choreographed piece of political manipulation designed to show Trump's compassion for children in order to offset the hemorrhaging of support for Trump among women, I am inclined to see it as every woman for herself.

For them it's about life after Trump. Five minutes after he leaves the White House Melania, understandably, will be looking to cash in her prenup and be rid of him. Can you imagine what even one day with him must be like for her?

Ivanka had or has an independent life in New York City among the wealthy, progressive, youthful elite. She needs to beat a path back to them if she wants to resume life as she knew it. But don't expect this to work. She could by now be toxic.

Hope? I suspect she will be the last one to walk away. There is something between them that is even stronger than family. If you're inclined, she's the one to feel sorry for.

With Hope Hicks