March 16, 2019--Rat's Non-Denial-Denial

For the second week in a row Matt Whitaker muscled his way to the top of the gangplank, desperate to abandon the listing SS Trump and in the process hoping to save his own tokhes.

Last Saturday I reported there was much competition among a number of rats but that Whitaker won. He comes in first again this week because he realized that if he doesn't try to clean up the lies he told under oath to the House Judiciary Committee he could find himself in a jumpsuit up the proverbial river.

In spite of his promise to "jump on a grenade" for Trump, for which he was rewarded by being named acting attorney general after poor Jeff Sessions was fired (on Election Day, no less), when he realized the extent of his exposure, including possible disbarment, he disappeared for a couple of weeks to wander in the wilderness to think things over, only to resurface on Wednesday when he agreed to meet with Judiciary Committee chair, Jerry Nadler, ranking member, Georgia Republican congressman, Doug Collins, and a few staff members to go over some of the untruths he told when testifying about Trump's allegedly leaning on him to pull the plug on the Southern District of New York prosecutor who was hot on the Michael Cohen Trail. 

Trump knew that if Cohen continued to flip he might pose a mortal threat to the president. 

The U.S. attorney the president wanted to run the Cohen investigation is a Trump loyalist. In spite of this he is also an ethical jurist and thus recused himself. Trump wanted him un-recused and pressured the acting attorney general to make that happen.

The acting AG subsequently lied under oath to the Nadler committee when he denied he had ever spoken to Trump about this preposterous idea. There is no such thing, even in Trump World, as un-recusals. 

But that lie and a related possible perjury charge hung over Whitaker and thus he sought a follow-up meeting with Nadler on Wednesday.

When they met this time Whitaker offered a classic non-denial-denial, saying he wouldn't deny nor admit that he spoke with Trump about rigging the investigation in Manhattan. 

The next logical step, under relentless pressure, will likely be for Whitaker to tell more of the whole truth. And so, when he comes fully clean, expect him again to be named rat of the week. 

March 6, 2019--Jack: T-PAC

It's that time of year when conservatives gather for the annual CPAC conference. 

The highlight this time was the appearance Sunday afternoon of Donald Trump who spoke for nearly two-and-a-half hours! Fidel-Castro, Mussolini-length, and surely a CPAC record for the longest expletive-larded speech ever. 

Trump had a lot on his mind. Most of it from agita. 

Just a few days earlier, while Michael Cohen was testifying before the House Oversight Committee, he was on Air Force One heading back to Washington from the collapsed summit with Kim Jong-un. At about the same time the New York Times was reporting that he personally countermanded his senior intelligence advisers and granted his son-in-law top secret security clearance.

And so he seized the opportunity to get many grievances off his chest and the audience loved every minute of it. They were as one. So much so that they stood and cheered for more than a disgraceful minute when he proclaimed John McCain dead. Tearfully, it will be a moment they will share with their Republican grandchildren.

Slumped and weary-looking as if he were bearing the weight of the world on his shoulders, Trump entered stage right where a lonely American flag stood, forlorn and limp on its pole. As if just happening to notice the flag, slowly he approached it, bending to embrace it. He coddled and rocked it in his arms as if he was comforting a loved one. With a sad smile, moving his lips dramatically so all could read them, he said, "My baby."

While streaming his remarks a day or two later to see if my eyes had deceived me on Sunday, the phone rang, and, as if he knew what I was up to, I was not surprised that it was Jack.


"I was watching your favorite show," he said, without even a greeting. "'Morning Joe.' All they could talk about was that speech. To tell you the truth I agreed with Joe and his guests that the slur about John McCain was way off base. Especially coming from someone who managed to dodge the draft."

"That was the lowest of many low points," I said.

Jack said, "But off that performance, if you guys are not careful you could be looking at six more years of our president." He chuckled at the prospect.

"Enlighten me."

"One of Joe Scarborough's quests, someone from the Washington Post, called Trump insane. He said if you had an old grandfather that crazy you'd lock him up in the attic. Another guest accused Trump of being 'unhinged.'"

"That was Eugene Robinson," I muttered.

"And then Mike Barnicle chimed is to say that the only thing missing was for Trump to show up wearing paper slippers."

"He's a regular," I said.

"I actually thought that was pretty funny. But he and the others totally missed the bigger point."

"Which is?"

"Look, who am I to tell you guys what to do, but if you want to win in 2020 you need to get your act together. Not only have you given Trump a perfect person to run against . . ."

"Spare me. It's a long time before we have a candidate. Now it's just a couple of dozen hopefuls looking to gain traction. It's premature to talk about running against Trump. We first have to sort things out."

"I mean,"Jack said, "We used to have Nancy Pelosi to run against--which I admit didn't work out so well in 2018--but now we have that girl from the Bronx. I can never remember her name . . ."

"Alexander Ocasio-Cortez."

"You have initials for her, right?"

"Some people refer to her as AOC. What's your problem with her?"

"Actually it's the opposite of a problem. She's a gift that keeps on giving. Isn't she the one who wants to ban hamburgers to reduce global warming?"

"Not really, but your guys are accusing her of that."

"She's perfect to run against. She's a socialist and her ego is so large that she can't get enough air time on TV. I know she turns a lot of your people on but she's too far out for the people I assume you are hoping will vote your way. If she's the new face of the Democrat Party, Trump will be a shoe in."

"Before we declare him the winner let's see what Mueller and the House committees come up with."

"You need to remember that the more dirt that came up about Clinton the more popular he became. And he won a second term. But OAC is not your major problem. The fact that after maybe the worst month of his presidency, Trump, like Clinton is seeing his favorables going up. Just this week by three points. To 46 percent or so."

"What then is our major problem?"

"You're doing it again."

"What again?"

"Just like last time around when you thought Trump was just a joke. You couldn't imagine him beating Hillary. And guess what--he did. Mainly because she and the rest of you wouldn't take Trump seriously and looked down your noses at him and his supporters. And now you're doing a version of the same thing. Again take CPAC. Rather than trying to figure them out and especially Trump' appeal to them--they listened and cheered for him for two-and-a-half hours--you're busy making fun of him. How his speech was incoherent and that he's crazy. Things like that. By doing this you're motivating his people to stay loyal to him and are turning off a lot of people who are on the fence about him."

"I don't disagree with that," I conceded. "All during the last presidential campaign I thought Hillary and the liberal media were missing what was happening in the middle of the country and therefore we made a huge mistake by not showing respect for people who live and vote there. Rather, we too frequently mocked and disparaged Trump and those who turned out to be his voters."

Jack said, "And your reaction to CPAC shows me you're doing the same thing all over again. Which, for me is just fine. But to win you need to recognize that Trump, when it comes to politics and marketing himself, is crazy like a fox. He's totally brilliant at that. I know you think he's dumb and maybe about things you care about he is. But about appealing to his base and a lot of independents he's a version of a political genius. 

"If you want to win, first, you need to not nominate one of your crazies who Trump will mock 24/7. But you also need to get more comfortable with at least a segment of his followers. To see them as fellow Americans who have some legitimate issues, including some you share. Like worrying about how their children and grandchildren will fare as the economy changes and how the demographics of America are becoming more diverse than even some of your people are comfortable with. Don't fool yourself into believing all your liberal friends are so happy about these changes. 

"So you need to find a way to talk about this that's not bigoted and condemning. You need to have and show more understanding of the views and fears of people who you disagree with. You have to stop pointing fingers of contempt at them. Again, I'm talking about just some of Trump's people. From your perspective most are, to quote Hillary who was right about this, irredeemable. One of your problems is that you assume everyone is or should be as tolerant as you try to be. Well, you know what, in this regard you and your friends are far from perfect. You need to take a hard look at what's really in your heart." 

I finally said, "I've been attempting to make that argument for years. Liberals are more tolerant, every poll shows that, but there are a lot of closeted progressives who aren't happy about all the changes you mentioned. But in regard to immigrants and people of color Trump and the CPAC crowd are way out of line. There's no way to paper over that"

"I'll tell you what was really going on with the CPACers."

"I'm all ears."

"They were marking the end of the traditional Republican Party. It's now Trump's party. They could call themselves T-PAC. And his speech, if you can call it that, was like an inaugural address or a comedian's stand-up spritz to celebrate the victory of this new party. That explains the John McCain crack. They saw his death as if it signaled the end of the old Republican Party. A party that they saw him as representing. But again what they did was disgraceful. No two ways about that. 

"But here's the bottom line," Jack continued, "Trump and many of his people are really anarchists. You should call them out for that just as they accuse all of you of being socialists. But you should make a distinction between that part of T-PAC and the others who aren't so radical. As I've been saying, you need to find a way to reach out to and appeal to some of them. You also need to recognize that a large part of Trump's appeal is that he's entertaining. Which politically is not a bad thing. We are an entertainment-obsessed nation and you should look for someone to run against him who average people can enjoy listening to."

"I agree with that."

"Otherwise you're cooked."

March 1, 2019--Diplomatic Ju Jitsu

One thing about which we are certain--Trump has an insatiable need for adulation.

He is indiscriminate about where it comes from or what it is about. He doesn't much care as long as he can bask in the spotlight and feel the love.

He must, then, by some measures, be feeling quite satisfied by the reaction to his "failed" summit in Hanoi with Kim Yong-un.

Conservatives are praising him for not taking the deal the North Koreans put on the table--they would dismantle one or two nuclear weapons plants in exchange for Trump agreeing to declare the end the Korean War and removing the sanctions that are crippling the North Korean economy.

Trump rejected the offer. Conservatives such as Ann Coulter (who is on the record as saying she doesn't care if Kim nukes Seattle) can't get enough of macho leaders who stand up to blustering strongmen, especially, oxymoronically, weak strongman.

And then moderates and liberals alike such as foreign policy experts such as Richard Haas and David Ignatius are also offering begrudging praise for Trump's refusing to give up too much (like the withdrawal of U.S. troops from South Korea) in exchange for too little (the elimination of one or two nuclear facilities). 

Since the collapse of the talks, they have been praising him publicly for holding his fire and behaving as a responsible chief executive. Most, prior to Thursday, thought, distracted by Michael Cohen's testimony before Congress, that Trump would commit to almost anything to assure a bold headline. Even if he agreed to a bad deal.

Here's what I've been thinking--

Though Trump and his team are being criticized for not doing enough prep work to help assure positive outcomes, I am feeling that they may have done just enough for them to get the result they most desired--an obviously flawed deal that would allow Trump to "walk," as he put it, and thereby be viewed as either tough or moderate enough to reap the positive responses he in fact received from diplomats, world leaders, and (most important to him) the media and opinion makers.

Rather then seeing him as stumbling ineffectively he is now, about Korea if not Michael Cohen, receiving the praise he most craves.

Or maybe he just stumbled onto some fools luck.

January 21, 2019--BuzzardFeed

Late on Friday did you, like me, feel the air rushing into the balloon and then just as quickly flowing out?

I'm referring to the reaction to the BuzzFeed report that claimed President Trump explicitly instructed his fixer, Michael Cohen, to lie to Congress when he testified before them. 

If true (remember these two little words), this would have Trump pinned in the crosshairs of having committed at least two felonies--witness tampering (technically, suborning perjury) and conspiring to cover up evidence of a crime. Both almost automatically impeachable offenses. 

And so, the responsible media, numerous Democrats in Congress, and almost everyone I know immediately cheered that it was time to stop fooling around with investigations and such and get to the main event--impeachment--as there was now more than ample evidence that Trump was, yes, a crook.

Then a funny thing happened.

The Mueller investigation's spokesperson took the very unusual step of calling aspects of the BuzzFeed report into question. He usually says nothing about everything. So let me quote this--

BuzzFeed’s description of specific statements to the Special Counsel’s Office, and characterization of documents and testimony obtained by this office, regarding Michael Cohen’s Congressional testimony are not accurate.

Trump and his people were gleeful while I and most everyone I know moped. We had thought it was about to be all over and now Trump is taking a victory lap. The head of the witch hunt, he claimed, had just slipped him a get-out-of-jail card.

Not so fast.

Nothing of much consequence happened except a glimpse at the political leanings of most in the media and how beneficial this mess is to Trump as he struggles to save his skin--"You see, witch hunt, fake news, corrupt judiciary. It's all about Democrats trying to overturn the results of the last presidential election."

But I digress. Back to Mueller's spokesman. He did not say that Cohen hadn't lied and he didn't say that Trump is in the clear. Mueller also isn't saying that his office hasn't gathered powerful evidence about Trump and collusion with the Russians. Rather, it is and only is that BuzzFeed's characterization of documents and testimony obtained by the Mueller office are not fully accurate.

This means that Cohen may have lied to Congress (in fact, he already pled guilty to that) and might have documents that he shared that provide corroboration. Which, if true (if true), would be of great consequence.

But friends, there is not yet a smoking gun. We need to be patient, calm down. Grinding is the nature of investigations of this kind.

One further thing--

With Dems in control of the House and investigations about to pop up expect much more leaking as congressional staff learn more about what is to be learned. This is not entirely a bad thing even though much of what is leaked will be discredited. 

The reason it is a good thing, however, is that the more the public gets to know about what went on inside the Trump organization and campaign the less likely it will be that the new Attorney General, Robert Barr, if inclined (and I don't think he will be), will choose not to release the Mueller report as a good portion of it will in this informal way already have been made public and any attempts to obscure it will fail. The politics on the ground will not allow that.

November 27, 2018--South of the Border

Silly me, all along I thought Trump would wag the dog when Robert Mueller's findings were about to be published by bombing nuclear installations in North Korea or Iran. To distract from the main Mueller takeaway--the indictments of half the Trump family--he would start a war either place and watch his approval ratings soar. 

Don't they always when a president shows muscle? Like Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon did in the early days in Vietnam, Ronald Reagan did in Grenada, as George H. W. Bush did in Panama and Iraq, as Bill Clinton did in Bosnia, and George W. Bush did in Afghanistan and again in Iraq. Approval numbers in all instances went off the charts. 

But then (is there a lesson here?) in almost all cases the numbers came crashing back to earth. In fact so low for LBJ and Nixon that for this and other reasons they both wound up having to resign the presidency. (Lesson here as well?)

But now I think Trump's first (note that--first) wag situation will not be with Iran or North Korea but along the 1,900 mile border with Mexico.

With our border patrol people already using teargas and rubber bullets à la Israel to contain asylum seekers and Trump authorizing the use of "lethal force" if they or the military he has deployed to the area have rocks thrown at them, the visuals are already so intoxicating to the cable-news-addicted president that how can he be expected to resist a wider, more telegenic little war? And of course not have to worry that these fleeing Guatemalans might lob nukes on San Francisco or Trump Tower in New York City.

While all this excitement is going on who will care about the beans spilt by former campaign manager Paul Manafort or former fixer Michael Cohen? Who will notice that Trump pardons Don Junior, son-in-law Jared, and Ivanka? Who will pay attention to the legal spatting about the constitutionality of subpoenaing or indicting a sitting president?

After running this riff by Rona, she said, "A little snarky, don't you think?"

"Maybe a little," I said, "But this is serious."

"And for something this serious you think snark is the right tone? Thousands in the caravans are suffering and back in their home countries there are millions more being preyed upon by violent gangs, collapsed economies, and governmental corruption."

"So what are we supposed to do? Open our borders and let anyone in who wants to work and live here? I agree the situation is serious but what are we realistically supposed to think much less do? I get the demagoguery and the rhetoric, how Trump is playing with these people's lives for his own political purposes. To feed his base of terrified haters. If you were president what would you do?"

"It is very complicated," Rona said, "Look at what happened to poor Hillary the other day. When she said in an interview in The Guardian that 'Europe needs to get a handle on migration because that is what lit the flame' of nationalism in England, Western Europe, and with Trump the U.S. too. She got beat up, most claimed, for not getting off the stage and letting the next generation of Democrats move into the spotlight. But I think she was castigated because she told the truth. The truth that American liberals don't want to deal with because they fear it will alienate some members of their own base--those who want more open borders and a permissive approach to immigration."

"What we need," I said, "Is a whole new immigration policy. It needs to be humanitarian and efficient but also has to place limits on who we can admit to the country and need for our economy. That's the hard part."

"We can and should talk more about this because I can't figure out what I would like to see. But in the meantime I agree with you about Trump. You can safely bet your last two dollars that he's hoping for some significant violence along the border to justify a more and more aggressive response by our security forces. Sort of like how Lyndon Johnson jumped on a supposed incident in the Gulf of Tonkin off North Vietnam to justify a major ramping up of our commitment to defeat the Vietcong. My guess is that Trump is looking for his Gulf of Tonkin opportunity to take the focus off Mueller."

"In the meantime," I said, "Back to the snark."

November 20, 2018--Jack's Take

"I know, you think I've been ignoring you"--that had occurred to me--"Well, I have been. Since Election Day." Jack was on the line. 

"How," Jack said. "did Obama put it after the 2010 midterms? That he and the Democrats took a 'shellacking'? Well, that just happened to us. Republicans in general and Trump and his people specifically. As he put it, it was as if he was on the ballot. Which is true. He made the election all about him and try as he might to spin what happened as a big win it was a disaster."

"I agree with this but frankly I'm surprised you are feeling this way. You prided yourself for having been the first person in town to put out Trump lawn signs. And the first person I know who very early on--when he seemed like a joke--to have predicted that not only would Trump win the nomination but also that he would win the election."

"Well let me then be the first Trump person you know to predict that if he runs for reelection (and that is not a certainty) he will lose. Except for two things."

"What pray tell are those?"

"Number one, if you guys nominate Bernie or, number two, you nominate Warren. Two losers. Even a weakened Trump would easily beat either one of them. They're going to win Pennsylvania or Ohio or Michigan or Florida or Wisconsin? States that the ultimate winner needs to carry? Get real. This is not going to happen with a candidate who will be almost 80 in 2020, who's from Brooklyn originally and now from Vermont, a socialist no less? Or a Harvard professor who's from Massachusetts? From my perspective it should only happen."

"I don't entirely disagree with you," I said, "The Dems this time around were really smart about who they ran for Congress. Military veterans, some in the right places who are social conservatives, a few deficit hawks, some who go to church regularly, and others who support the Second Amendment. Up in Maine one of the Democrats running for the House--and who won, Jared Golden--ran a whole bunch of commercials that included video of him on a rifle range."

"Yeah, they ran a lot of Republicans who pretended to be Democrats."

"Not true," I said, "the people I am talking about are mainly Democratic moderates and they appealed to a lot of people who in the past were called 'Reagan Democrats' because for decades they had voted the straight Democratic ticket but switched to vote for Reagan after the Democrats began to run candidates who were too elitist, too liberal, too out of touch with average people. Like Michael Dukakis."

I continued, "But what about the Mueller investigation? What happens if he issues a report that exposes all sorts of criminal activity carried out by Trump and his family?"

"That would be the best thing that could happen to us."

"What?" I was incredulous, "It's only 10:30 in the morning but have you been drinking?"

"No, and I'm taking my meds." He chuckled, sounding like the old swaggering Jack.

"I'm glad to hear that, but deal with the issue--what will happen when Mueller exposes all sorts of crimes--big ones--backed up with  emails and recordings of cell phone calls and the corroborating testimony of Michael Cohen, Paul Manafort, and a half dozen others? I fail to see how that could that be good news from your perspective."

"Look, it's obvious that all Republican in Congress and the right-wing media are terrified that if they say anything critical of Trump--forget negative--he will support people when they are up for reelection to go after them in primaries. No matter what he does a core of Republicans, maybe half of them, will stick with him and vote as he tells them to vote. Even, remember, if he kills someone on Fifth Avenue. In other words, Trump would primary anyone who says a critical thing about him. At least that's what has them shaking in their boots." He paused to hear my reaction.

"I need to run in a few minutes so could you speed this up?"

"You're back in New York, the Big Satan, for a couple of days and already you're in a rush."

"Well, I am. I happen to have a doctor's appointment."

"Nothing too serious, I hope."

"I'll let you know the next time we talk. But, please, finish your thought about Mueller."

"Simple--his report will give these quivering Republicans political cover."

"I think I see where you're heading with this."

"If Mueller provides conclusive evidence of high crimes and misdemeanors, Republicans will begin to back away from Trump, claiming their behavior--behavior they look forward to displaying since softening up their rhetoric is the only way to save themselves. They will say, 'What are we supposed to do with this mountain of evidence? Ignore it?' They have no choice but to back away from Trump while absolving themselves of blame. They might even fool enough people to win some primaries, rescuing themselves because by 'reluctantly' (put that in quotes) accepting what Mueller reports they will be able to pretend that they were reluctant Trump supporters all along. It will remove what wind is left in Trump's sails. It will be like hiding behind Mueller's skirt. This is why the ever-slippery Lindsay Graham is sounding as if he is uncoupling himself from Trump. He'll soon be on the lookout to find someone new to cuddle up to."

"I can see all of this happening. But why, from your perspective, is this good news? With your boy, Trump being brought down?"

"Here's the dirty little secret." Jack lowered his voice as if not wanting to be overheard. "Because Trump is being exposed as a loser. His whole thing has been to present himself as a winner. Remember during the campaign he kept saying, 'There will be so much winning you'll get tired of winning?'"

"I remember that."

"Well, after Election Day and the Mueller report he won't be able to get away with saying that anymore. Seeing nearly 40 Republican seats in the House flip to Democrats doesn't look like winning. Especially to Republicans in Congress who care only about their version of winning--getting reelected. Wait and see what will happen to Republican senators up for reelection in 2020 if they stay rafted up with Trump."

"But you already have him either not running in two years or if he does defeated by a Dem other than Sanders or Warren. So you have me totally confused about what you think or would like to see happen. Not what Republicans in general or members of Congress are up to. Let me put it to you directly--do you want Trump to be reelected or defeated? Or maybe just disappear?"

Half ignoring me, Jack said, "After last Tuesday there's blood in the water and everyone in Congress knows that. The Mueller report will just be the clincher. But crucial nonetheless since the Republicans can use it to justify their own independence from Trump and will not need to depend on riding his coat tales."

"But," Jack continued, still hushed, "Here's the secret--Trump will lose even to Elizabeth Warren."

"What?" It's that bad for him? I thought you said she or Bernie would lose? Now I'm totally confused."

"To tell you the truth I was trying to make myself feel better. I wasn't thinking things through. I was trying to begin to reconcile myself to a very unpleasant situation. The prospect of Warren or Sanders in the White House."

"But, remember me and my lawn signs," Jack said, "In the prediction business I have a pretty good track record. Though next time around things won't turn out so good."

"Again, what are you predicting? We're on the phone but I can feel you smiling. Like you're playing with me. And now I have to go, without enough time to be able to figure out what you're saying about your own position."

"Good luck with the doctor," he said, laughing and hanging up.

August 22, 2018--The Fall of the House of Trump

On split-screen TV, on the same day, during the same hour, with the conviction of Donald Trump's campaign manager Paul Manafort, the guilty pleas of Trump fixer Michael Cohen, who will now sing like a canary, with the reminder yesterday that former National Security Advisor and confessed felon, Michael Flynn is still spilling the beans to the Mueller investigators, and the promise of more troubles to come (like the indictment of Don Jr?), well short of two years into his presidency, before our eyes, Trump World is unraveling.

As a result we can expect to see a great deal of desperate, out of control behavior by our deflating president.

There will be firings, there will be pardons, expect an intensification of insults and threats to soft targets such as Little Rocket Man, expect distractions, including some wave-the-dog military action. Expect more unhinged rallies like the one last night in West Virginia, and of course there will be more tweet storms with Mueller and Sessions in the crosshairs as Trump also continues to savage Omarosa, Maxine Waters, Nancy Pelosi, and Hillary. 

Melania will disappear from sight (also yesterday she announced she's about to take off on a solo trip to some "s-hole" countries in Africa) as will the Kusners. Unless Jared as well finds himself under the Mueller bus.

One thing not to expect--more than a handful of critical comments from wimped-out Republicans. They helped create Trump, rode his coattails to congressional leadership, doubled their bets on him as the midterms approached, and now will trickle down to insignificance with him. 

It is too late for these "rats" (Trump's word) to abandon ship. Live by him, die by him. As Tennyson wrote, to class up this sordid tale, we are seeing "Nature red in tooth and claw."

No one in Congress is writing a profile in courage.

And don't expect anything Trump perpetrates to protect him beyond Election Day. Even if Mueller is fired, like the Pentagon Papers, his report will see the light of day and, as a result, after Democrats win control of the House in early November, investigative hearings will begin January 2nd, Trump will be impeached by the House by the fall of 2019.

Though he will not be convicted by the Senate even if Democrats retake the majority since that requires an impossible 67 votes.

But in spite of this Trump will not retain the presidency beyond 2020. Knowing he can't win reelection, after declaring "mission accomplished," expect him to opt out for "health reasons." He will do a Nixon and turn the keys to the White House over to Mike Pence. Another nightmare in waiting.

But rather than focusing on that, let's enjoy the moment and the evidence from yesterday that the "system" may be working.

Paul Manafort Mugshot

August 6, 2018--All the President's Women

Rona can be skeptical. Even on occasion a little cynical. And so when it was widely reported that First Lady Melania Trump appeared to be showing signs of independent thought, when First Daughter Ivanka in public spoke critical words about her Daddy, and then when it was reported that Hope Hicks on Saturday was seen sneaking onto Air Force One to join Trump on a flight to a rally in Ohio, Rona was quick to conclude that all female family and special friends, all hands were urgently summoned on deck as recent polls show Trump's support among college-educated women approaching zero percent. He can't win reelection with only middle-age, to quote Trump, "low-IQ" white guys on board.

First the First Daughter--

Ivanka went a version of rogue last week. This was previewed by her and husband Jared showing up again at their senior-advisor White House jobs. They had been AWOL for months while things were unraveling as if to stay as far away as possible from it and the widening stain. Perhaps concluding they had nothing to lose before they themselves were scooped up in the same net.

And though Ivanka refused to answer probing questions during her interview last week with AXIOS, she did concede that the separation of young children from their parents at the Texas-Mexico border was "a low point" in the Trump presidency and that she is"vehemently opposed" to family separation. 

Then there was Melania-- 

After porn star Stormy Daniels and Playboy model Karen McDougal hit the headlines with their claims that Trump paid them off so they wouldn't reveal their trysting, as if she were hearing this for the first time, the First Lady absented herself for a number of weeks (including to the hospital), made a couple of solo visits to the border, and while there--contravening Trump's policies--she showed some empathy for the plight of migrants.

Then, when she resumed traveling with Trump and appeared with him at the NATO and EU meetings and after that the visit to England and the Helsinki summit with Putin, on the flight home, the president caught her sneaking a look at CNN. He went ballastic, demanding that on AFOne, Fox News was to be on all TVs all the time. Melania demurred saying loud enough for many to hear that she'll watch what she wants, thank you very much.

And then, after Trump railed against LeBron James, when Melania said she'd be open to visiting with him at the school he is funding in Ohio for at-risk kids, Twitter and switchboards lit up across the country, suggesting that James is more untouchable than the Pope, who, during the campaign Trump got away with trashing. Sniping at James, though, calling him "low IQ" (Trump's favorite epithet for black people) may be a red line that Trump crossed at great risk as LeBron is very popular among Trump's base of dead-enders.

Finally, Hope Hicks--

This one I don't get. If they are fooling around, Air Force One is not the best place for that. But perhaps because the Mueller probe is closing in fast (there's the Manafort trial underway, new threatening information about the collusion meeting in Trump Tower (Trump finally admitting yesterday it was about getting dirt on "an opponent"), Michael Cohn leaking one of his tapes, and the deposing of Trump's H&R Block accountant, the president is unraveling. The various rallies at which he recently appeared exposed a seemingly desperate man fighting for his life. Holding Hope's hand and being assured by her how wonderful he is and how unfair everyone is being to him could be a version of just what the doctor ordered. That is, if Trump had a real doctor.

So, in spite of Rona thinking this is a carefully choreographed piece of political manipulation designed to show Trump's compassion for children in order to offset the hemorrhaging of support for Trump among women, I am inclined to see it as every woman for herself.

For them it's about life after Trump. Five minutes after he leaves the White House Melania, understandably, will be looking to cash in her prenup and be rid of him. Can you imagine what even one day with him must be like for her?

Ivanka had or has an independent life in New York City among the wealthy, progressive, youthful elite. She needs to beat a path back to them if she wants to resume life as she knew it. But don't expect this to work. She could by now be toxic.

Hope? I suspect she will be the last one to walk away. There is something between them that is even stronger than family. If you're inclined, she's the one to feel sorry for.

With Hope Hicks

July 31, 2018--A Fixer Scorned

To paraphrase a line from The Mourning Bride, a play by English author of the late 17th century, William Congreve, Hell hath no fury like a fixer scorned.

The fixer in this case is Michael Cohen, Donald Trump's longtime flunky and factotum who, to save his skin, seems to be singing like a canary to special counsel Robert Mueller and various DAs in New York City.

Last week we had a taste of the beans he is likely spilling since, being no fool, Cohen is able to corroborate some of their dirty dealings through dozens of tapes he made of their larcenous conversations.

The first recording to be leaked was just a morsel, an appetizer. In a two-minute tidbit we heard Trump and his personal lawyer talking about how to pay off Playboy model, Karen McDougal, with whom Trump had an 10-month-long affair. This was two weeks before the 2016 election and the last thing Trump needed was yet another, as they, forgive me, referred to these matters during Bill Clinton's randy time, a "bimbo eruption."

I am certain that Cohen's very clever lawyer and Clinton intimate, Lanny Davis, dangled this before prosecutors as part of a potential plea bargain arrangement with Mueller and the federal attorneys in the Southern District who raided Cohen's various offices and dwellings in April to get the goods on him so he in turn, to avoid spending the rest of his life in jail (Trump will not be able to pardon him from non-federal crimes he assuredly committed in New York) Davis previewed what his client would share as part of the deal--the rest of the tapes and everything else Cohen wisely squirreled away as he knew in his heart that eventually it would come to this: to save himself Trump would throw him under the bus. 

The very same Trump loyalist who proudly said on many occasions that he "would take a bullet" for the big guy.

If there was so much that could be implicating in only these two minutes what more would the dozens of other tapes reveal? One can only imagine. But one can imagine that before signing a get-out-of-jail-free card for the fixer in chief the various prosecutors will insist on hearing all the dirt Cohen has to dish. 

Get ready for a banquet of dish.

For the literary-minded, here is the larger context for the Congreve quote--

"Heav'n has no Rage like Love to Hatred turn'd, Nor Hell a Fury, like a Woman scorn'd."

This connection between love and hatred is instructive to a full understanding of the Cohen-Trump bromance.

First a little background--

Cohen grew up in Lawrence, a middle class suburb on Long Island. A place adjacent to Kennedy Airport where jumbo jets thundered over the Cohen house every minute or two, seven days a week, day and night, shaking the building's foundation. But from Lawrence high ground (there isn't much of it) on a clear day little Michael could catch a glimpse of the New York City skyline, 20 long miles away. Sort of like Gatsby peering at the green light at the end of Daisy's dock that symbolizes his hopes and dreams of breaking free from his origins. And sort of like the similar view that the adolescent Donald could strain to see from his Queens, outer-borough childhood home.

Cohen's mother was a nurse and his father a surgeon.

Cohen earned a bachelors degree from American University and, as a less then stellar student, a law degree from Thomas M. Cooley Law School, a diploma mill that came close to losing its accreditation in 2017 and 2018.  After attending a place such as Cooley, no white shoe-law firms in Manhattan were recruiting Cohen and so he had little choice but to began his law career as a personal injury attorney, as an "ambulance chaser," the bottom rung of the plaintiff food chain.

When some years later Trump laid eyes on him he saw a desperate striver, someone hungry to move on and up, but without equivalent street smarts. Someone to use and from whom he could expect unquestioning fealty. Someone if needed who would take a bullet for him.

Cohen was not difficult to reel in. He deluded himself, thinking Trump viewed him as a colleague and kindred spirit, a surrogate son, coming from similar places, having similar aspirations (to get out) but he should have known the truth about the nature of their relationship when Cohen had literally to plead with Trump to get him to come to his son's 2012 bar mitzvah.

Trump came so late, the Wall Street Journal reported, that the blessings were delayed. The future president then gave a speech in which he said he hadn't planned on attending but opted to come after Cohen "begged him to" by repeatedly badgering him, his secretary, and his children. The WSJ said the guests laughed at this, finding it believable, considering what they knew about the one-direction nature of the Trump-Cohen relationship.

And so we now have a sense of the depth and causes of scorned Cohen's feelings and how that unrequited love has turned to hate. 

Cohen thought he was a member of the Trump family but came to discover he was merely hired help.

And we can understand why Trump is again unhinged when he contemplates what Cohen has to share with prosecutors and where as a result the Mueller investigation is heading. 

Over the weekend in a tweet storm Trump (and current flunky, Rudy Giuliani) turned once again to personally excoriating the special counsel, claiming he should step aside because of his having numerous "conflicts of interest," including one I find most bizarre--that Mueller is pursuing Trump because in 2011, when Mueller was F.B.I. director, he had complaints  about membership fees at one of his golf courses. I assume overcharging as he did with Trump University.

Bottom line--Congreve got it right.

Trump National Golf Course

May 14, 2018--"Rudy" Awakening

During our first week in Maine we turned the TV on exactly one time and at that for a total of only about half an hour--last Sunday night to watch a little American Idol. We would have watched more but fell asleep after driving seven hours to get here.

So it was a rude awakening or, forgive the pun, a Rudy awakening when we finally turned it on again this past Saturday after pretty much a full week of no TV. 

It was all Rudy of Rudy Giuliani all the time because his antics as Trump's new lead attorney were splashed all over the news. None of it good. All off it tumultuous, out-of-control, or just plain crazy. 

Whoever said this has it right--he's lost a step. Though from all the messes he created or stepped into during the past two weeks working for Trump, I'd say he's lost more than that. It looks as if he's lost his entire mind.

First, when pooh-poohing Trump's other personal lawyer, Michael Cohn's paying off Stormy Daniels, Rudy said that was no big deal. It's the sort of thing he and his firm routinely do for his and their famous and wealthy clients. Shrugging, he boasted, we just write the women "a couple of checks." What's $130,000? No big deal.

It appears, though, that it is a big deal to the law firm in which Rudy is (or should is say, was) a partner. The other partners met and voted to force him to resign. We don't do that kind of thing, they said.

But he appears to continue to serve as Trump's butt-boy lawyer, slamming Stormy Daniels' attorney, Michael Avenatti, who challenged Rudy to a one-on-one debate (I'd pay to watch that), sneering, "I don't get involved with pimps."

Avenatti couldn't restrain himself from noting the obvious--in effect saying, "You pay off women for your rich and famous clients and you call me a pimp?"

Just as this was reminded me what I've been missing since cutting the cable, along came more breaking news--what White House aide Kelly Sadler cruelly said at a meeting in the West Wing about critically ill John McCain.

The meeting included a discussion about the upcoming vote to confirm or reject the nomination of Gina Haspel to head the CIA. Her appointment is controversial since as a high-level CIA staffer she presided over one or more so-called "black sites" where accused terrorists were tortured.

McCain, having been tortured in a North Vietnam prison for years, is on record as opposing her nomination and this may mean she will not be confirmed. Not willing to vote for her, Sadler said, "doesn't matter. He's dying anyway."

So here it is early Monday morning and I'm torn. 

I know Trump is about to start tweeting and Rudy is soon to crawl out of bed after dreaming about all the outrageous things he can do to stir the pot and make everyone crazy. Should I turn on Morning Joe? Should I  . . . ?

But no. I think I'll take a pass and watch the sun rise over Johns Bay.

Left to Right--Rudy and Donald Trump

April 20, 2018--Trump's End Game

Many of us have been comforted by the belief that even if Robert Mueller is fired and his report gets squelched, even if President Trump pardons 20 or more people, everyone from son-in-law Jared Kushner to Paul Manafort to Michael Flynn and especially his personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, all or most of them would still be prosecutable by state attorney generals such as New York's Eric Schneiderman for violating state law because presidential pardons pertain only to federal law.

For example, if Cohen secured a home equity loan from a New York bank, claiming it was to renovate his apartment but then used it to buy Stormy Daniel's silence, he might have committed bank fraud and thus could be pursued by Schneiderman.

Well, it may turn out, not so much.

Just two days ago the New York attorney general asked Governor Andrew Cuomo and the state legislature to pass a new law to cover a potential loophole in the current law that might not allow the state to prosecute anyone who had received a blanket federal pardon by a president. That to do so might be a technical form of double jeopardy.  

A quick analysis of how possible it would be to pass such a law suggests it could be quite unlikely. Though the New York Senate has a slim Democratic majority it is hard to believe that it is solid enough to go along with Schneiderman's request.

And so . . . 

In this circumstance, "and so . . ." is not very comforting.

Also on Wednesday, at his press conference in Florida with Japan's prime minister Abe Trump, Trump was asked if he is going to fire deputy attorney general, Ron Rosenstein, or Robert Mueller. His response, "Well, they're still here."

They are, and more germane, so is he. Trump will continue to be here, he is gambling, even as the circle of protection closes in on him.

Here's how that might work--

Of course he pardons everyone in sight who has been investigated, questioned, deposed, or indicted by Mueller's people. That could include pardoning himself  

Then he fires everyone in sight associated with the Justice Department (Rosenstein, Sessions, Mueller) and in the federal southern district in New York City where the Michael Cohen case now resides.

Then all the Trump-associated lawyers move to shut down the possibility of any state attempting to prosecute him or any of his people via state law, claiming that would constitute double jeopardy.

There of course would be a firestorm of outrage. A "constitutional crisis" (whatever that means). All but Fox News and the right-wing crazies on talk radio would seethe, investigate, and run six-inch high banner headlines decrying these step toward a tyrany. And it would be that. A big step in that direction.

Some would see this scenario to be unlikely. Trump would instantly become the most reviled president in history. His ego is such that he wouldn't willingly take on all the abuse that would be heaped upon him. He'd rather take his chances. This could include impeachment, though he wouldn't be convicted. 

Most constitutional lawyers say that sitting presidents can't be criminally indicted. Couple that with the knowledge that the two presidents who have been impeached (Nixon, though he came close, never was) were not convicted and tossed out of office by the Senate. 

Thus, in Trump's mind there is a case to be made for standing pat. For letting things play out. In fact, Bill Clinton became more popular after being impeached. Andrew Johnson is a whole other story.

Trump has already been more fully exposed (almost literally) then any other president. ("Best sex ever!") He perversely seems to thrive on being humiliated. It's the old story of not caring what's said about you as long as they spell your name correctly and keep the spotlight on you.

So, he could be thinking, ride it out. How long will members of Congress go on cable news and rail about him and what he is bringing down upon the country? More than two weeks? I doubt it.

And so there he might continue to sit. Still with Air Force One available to whisk him back and forth to Mar-a-Lago. And he'll continue to be commander in chief, having his hands on all those terrible toys.

I know this is darkly pessimistic. But if any of it is true we have to face it and deal with it.

So here then is the good news--

THIS SCENARIO IS IN OUR HANDS TO RESIST AND OVERCOME.

By voting first in November and then in 2020. 

It really isn't that difficult. We don't need to take up arms. We just need to vote and get everyone we know to do so.

If the Democrats take over the House, investigations and articles of impeachment will follow quickly. If Democrats gain control of the Senate, though there will not be enough of them even with a few courageous Republicans to convict him--that requires a two-thirds vote--but Trump will be effectively neutered. That will get us safely to 2020 when he will be eminently defeatable. As long as we don't get stupid and nominate someone sure to lose. A list of those to follow one day soon. Hint--it includes Bernie and Warren.

Then the rebuilding will begin. Don't forget, we fought a Civil War that tore the country apart. But we survived and emerged stronger than ever.

Eric Schneiderman

April 18, 2018--Poor Sean

If Sean Hannity's connection to Donald Trump's "personal lawyer" and self-acknowledged fixer, Michael Cohen, is not a big deal (as Sean claims), why then is he making such a big deal out of being outed as one of Cohen's three clients? 

He could simply have shrugged it off, saying, "Next." 

Instead, he was on TV the other night with Alan Dershowitz, who disappeared from view after serving on O.J. Simpson's Dream Team before resurfacing as a Fox News favorite and Trump flunky (All Dershowitz seems to care about these days is who he thinks will be most supportive of Israel.)

Hannity fessed up to talking to Cohen a few times but not as a lawyer, merely seeking his advice and insight about a couple of possible real estate deals. Not for the hush-treatment Cohen is famous for concocting for, among others, Stormy Daniels. Thus far, Hannity doesn't appear to require one of these. Though, stay tuned.

So, I have been wondering, what kind of deals might Hannity have sought Cohen's advice about? In the wild west world of real estate development in New York City, Cohen is hardly known as either a player or the shiniest penny.

But he does have one potential source of information, insider information about potential real estate deals--those his Don, Donald Trump is involved in.

It is thus not difficult to imagine what Hannity and Cohen might have spoken about during those encounters late in the summer of 2016, just moths before the election. Conversations they appear not to want anyone, especially prosecutors, to know about. One of these might have gone this way--

"Michael? Sean here. Got a minute?"

"For you, buddy, any time. What's happening?"

"You know how I hate the stock market and how all my investments are in real estate?"

"I know that Sean. Everyone does. You've talked about it on the air. On Fox and on the radio. I can hardly blame you. Trading stocks is like gambling in a casino."

"I just signed a contract extension with Fox and between that show and the radio I'm looking at 36 big ones next year. As in millions. So I have some spare change that I want to put somewhere. And thought . . ."

"You've come to the right place, pal. I got a couple of things that might interest you."

"I'm taking notes."

"Be sure to tear them up and swallow them when your done."

[Both laugh]

"We're not talking about this, right?" Sean said, "If anyone asks we say we were just talking about the weather."

"I already forgot you called.

[Again they both laugh]

"So what have you got for me? The deal in Dubai worked out pretty well. It included that golf course designed by Tiger."

"Well, there's another golf deal in Aberdeen, Scotland  I now you're into golf and so this could be nice. You'd own a piece and never have to wait for a tee time."

[More laughing]

"Wait, there's one more thing. You're gonna love this."

"Shoot."

"What do you think about us cutting you a piece in Trump Tower . . . Moscow?"

"Really? I thought he gave up on that one? Without Putin . . ."

"Let's just say it could be back on track."

"Who could resist that deal."

"Again, off the record. Very off the record."

"My lips are sealed."

"I just got back from . . ."

"Moscow?"

"No. That would be to chancy. This is all one-off stuff. From Prague."

"In Czechoslovakia?"

"It's now in the Czech Republic."

"And?"

"The Russians who were at the meeting were all hush, hush, wink, wink. But I got the strong feeling it'll be a go. Depending of course on what happens in November."

"I'm in," Sean said. "And I'll do all I can on the show to get out the vote."

[Lots of laughter]

"So, how's the weather out there on the island?"

March 30, 2018--Stormy Weather

The two most watched TV shows in at least a decade were aired last week--the return of Rosanne (18.2 million viewers) and the Stormy Daniels interview on 60 Minutes (22 million tuned in). 

They had one thing in common: Donald Trump. 

One thing he is good at is attracting a crowd. Sort of like watching a car wreck.

Since Rosanne Barr is an enthusiastic Trump supporter and the "Rosanne" character on the show is as well (she talks about how America has been made great again)  she received a congratulatory phone call from him. 

Stormy Daniels, in contrast, didn't even get a tweet. In fact, as I write this, it has been about a week since Trump has had something to say about anything having to do with Stormy. That in itself is remarkable since the president has never before been shy about making comments about anything that he perceives to be affecting him.

It appears remaining silent about her is one of the very few things his lawyers, actually, his one remaining lawyer, has been able to convince him to do.

Wondering about this and also, I confess, coming away feeling disappointed that the 60 Minutes interview turned out to be boring, that it wasn't salacious enough, I had been hoping that she would reveal what was on that threatening-feeling DVD disc that her lawyer, Michael Avanatti, had hyped in advance--maybe pictures--wondering, I concluded that what she and he concocted was brilliant--

They weren't thinking about what would appeal to an audience of 22 million, but to an audience of one--Donald Trump. The only audience that mattered to them.

Their entire strategy is to smoke him out. To get him on the record carelessly saying something defamatory. If they could get under his skin enough as the result of the daily media barrage Avanatti is engaged in, they might have a chance to sue him for defamation and thereby make him liable to being deposed, to force him to answer questions in open court rather than in the secrecy of an arbitration procedure where typically individuals who have signed an NDA (non-disclosure agreement) wind up.

They focused most of their jabs on Trump's lawyer, Michael Cohen, who says he paid Stormy $130,000 in hush money out of his own pocket--money he claimes he got from a personal home equity loan--without Trump's knowledge or approval. 

How believable is that? Anyone have a lawyer who doesn't want to get paid?

So Daniels, and especially Avenatti, have been making the rounds of every possible cable talk show other than those on Fox, using Trump's own scorched earth approach against Cohen and especially Trump himself.

Thus far they managed to get Cohen and his lawyers (with anything having to do with Trump's lawyers need lawyers to protect and defend them) to step in it enough to get at least one defamation suite working it's way toward federal court.

It's still a long shot that they will succeed. But if they do, as with Bill Clinton it will be sex that brings Trump down, not collusion with the Russians or obstructing justice.

Stay tuned. Literally.    

Michael Cohen

March 9, 2018--My 3,333rd Blog Posting: Suicide Is Painless

The one thing thus far missing from the Trump Show is a murder or suicide. 

In regard to that he's not keeping up with the Clintons who, according to the conspiracy-minded, as early as their first year in the White House, already had a few.

Vince Foster comes to mind.

He was a colleague of Hillary's in the Rose law firm in Little Rock and her suspected lover. He followed the Clintons to Washington and during the first six months of Bill's presidency served in the administration as deputy White House counsel.

One day, after not showing up for work, Foster was found dead in Fort Marcy Park, shot in the head. 

Many on the lunatic fringe claimed that the Clintons murdered him, though five separate investigations found that Foster, unhappy in Washington, had grown despondent and killed himself. 

For years afterward, Clinton haters did not accept that verdict, including Jerry Falwell, who, through the Arkansas Project, alleged that there were two witnesses who had incontrovertible evidence that Foster was murdered by Bill and Hillary. However, before they could testify, Falwell claimed they were killed in two separate plane crashes.

On late-night talk radio, along with a continuing drumbeat of accusation about Hillary's role in the death of our embassy workers in Benghazi, one can still hear ranting about the murder of Vince Foster.

Thus far with Trump, we hear about Playboy centerfolds and porn stars, but nothing yet about suicides or murders. 

Give them time. He's been in office only 14 months.

As things close in tighter and tighter on Trump and his inner circles, I anticipate there will be a few. 

Would one be surprised if Trump's so-called "outside" lawyer, Michael Cohen, who has created a fiasco out of attempting to obscure and silence talk about Trump's longterm extra-marital affair with porn star Stormy Daniels, took a handful of pills? 

He is clearly one of those Trump enablers who has been with him for years, cleaning up his messes, who feels as if he would take a bullet for Trump. Barring that, killing himself would serve. 

And, of course, this would have the additional benefit of Sean Hannity blaming it on Hillary. 

Then there is the strange case of Sam Nunberg, another Trump hanger-on, who until recently was also available to take a bullet for the big guy and who became a household name earlier this week among cable news devotees as he made the rounds of talk shows, muttering semi-coherently about being subpoenaed by one of Robert Mueller's grand juries. On the Ari Melber show, for example, he was so agitated that Melber and his panelists suspended normal interviewing and tried to talk him down from the ledge. 

As of this morning Nunberg says he will cooperate with Mueller, his is not off the wagon, and though he's still alive, he's on my watch list. 

And, of course, if he does do himself in, Rush Limbaugh can always blame it on Obama.

Would anyone be surprised if Paul Manafort was found dead soon after imbibing some exotic Russian potion? Either administered by the same operative who poisoned the Russian defector and his daughter earlier this week in London (he could have had an open-jaw plane ticket from Moscow to London to Washington to Moscow) or the polonium-210 could have been self-administered by Manafort who at age 68 is looking at 80 years in federal prison. That would make him even older than my 107-year-old mother if he managed to serve his entire sentence.

What with his literal million-dollar custom wardrobe, which he paid for with Ukrainian money, living the rest of his life in a 50 square foot jail in an orange jumpsuit with no belt or shoelaces is not that GQ. 

But again, if Manafort is no more, his demise can be blamed on Huma Abedin or Susan Rice or Eric Holder. 

And, finally, there is Trump himself. From the current look of him it appears as if he is eating himself to death. A few more supersized Big Macs, with his clogged arteries, who knows. 

On the other hand he'll have no one to blame but himself.