March 23, 2019--Rats: Hope Springs Eternal

Let's hope Alexander Pope has it right because if Hope cooperates with the House Judiciary Committee, considering what she likely knows, a pack of frenzied rats will be pushing others out of the way as they race to the gangplank of the sinking SS Trump.

I am referring to Hope Hicks. Trump's most devoted aide. Whatever her title, at the White House she was Communications Director, her real job was to be Trump's unquestioning, totally loyal, always available, willing to do anything right-hand "girl."

Only 29 when she left him, in effect she grew up in his offices, brought there by daughter Ivanka for whom she also worked. Over time she became Trump's favorite "daughter." Many say he trusted her even more than biological Ivanka.

Ivanka knew what would work for Daddy, what he required. She, after all, before venturing forth, played pretty much the same role. She also knew he liked his women glamorous, with full faces of makeup, and well plastic-surgeried. (Melania, Stormy Daniels, Karen McDougal, and of course Ivanka herself.)

When working for the Trump Organization, Hope was situated right outside his open office door and would show up in a instant when he would bellow, "Get in here." They had a similar set up and arrangement in the Oval Office.

Now the Democratic leadership of the House Judiciary Committee is interested in seeing everything she has--personal and work diaries and note books, emails, texts, and phone logs as it investigates possible obstruction of justice and conspiracy.  

The committee is also interested in any materials she may have that pertain to Michael Flynn, any evidence that Trump paid hush money to former girlfriends, potential notes and documents about the firing of James Comey, and any information she may have about the infamous June, 2016 meting with the Russians at Trump Tower. Again, where she was prominently ensconced. 

Rather than resist the committee's request for documents, which, by claiming executive privilege she could do and thereby slow down the investigative process, Hope herself has apparently agreed to willingly turn over whatever she has directly to the Nadler Committee. She isn't having her attorneys nor the White House counsel serve as obstructionist intermediaries. At least this is how it looks at the moment.

These are ominous signs for Trump because if she flips or even just voluntarily turns over what she has, a smoking gun could easily turn up. 

It is clear she does not want to spend years in an orange jumpsuit. 

As often is the case when conspiracies are investigated it is the "little people" who contribute most to exposing and bringing them down. The Michael Cohens, the Hope Hicks, the John Deans, and soon Trump's personal accountant, Allen Weisselberg.

August 7, 2018--Under the Bus or Taking a Bullet?

Donald Trump in a Sunday morning tweet appeared to throw his son, Donald Jr., under the bus. 

He pled him guilty to committing a federal crime that forbids a candidate for the presidency or his agents to accept any form of material help from a foreign citizen or government. This includes both direct donations of money or in-kind assistance that has monetary value. 

Asking Russian agents to help gather "dirt" about Hillary Clinton ("an opponent") surely qualifies. 

The pertinent section of the federal code (52 U.S. Code 30121) reads as follows--


(a)Prohibition It shall be unlawful for—

(1)a foreign national, directly or indirectly, to make—

(A)

a contribution or donation of money or other thing of value, or to make an express or implied promise to make a contribution or donation, in connection with a Federal, State, or local election;

(B)

a contribution or donation to a committee of a political party; or

(C)

an expenditure, independent expenditure, or disbursement for an electioneering communication (within the meaning of section 30104(f)(3) of this title); or

(2)

a person to solicit, accept, or receive a contribution or donation described in subparagraph (A) or (B) of paragraph (1) from a foreign national.

Sunday morning Trump tweeted--

Fake News reporting, a complete fabrication, that I am concerned about the meeting my wonderful son, Donald, had in Trump Tower. This was a meeting to get information on an opponent, totally legal and done all the time in politics - and it went nowhere. I did not know about it. 

8:35 AM - Aug 5, 2018

This would appear to be Trump throwing his progeny under the bus to save his own skin when he denied he knew about his son's meeting in Trump Tower. If there is anyone to blame, this tweet appears to say, it is his "wonderful son."

One thing Trump gets right--gathering dirt, or engaging in "oppostion research" (oppo) in a political campaign is done all the time and is not per se illegal. On the other hand, seeking assistance in this by foreign agents is seriously against federal law.

This, however, is not going to be the end of the story. First, some possible context--

It is not a coincidence that all sorts of information is just now leaking, flooding out of Robert Mueller's thus-far leakproof investigation.

This is because he is following the Justice Department 60-day rule--not to report publicly less than 60 days before Election Day about an investigation that might include candidates for office. FBI director James Comey violated this unofficial rule just weeks before the 2016 presidential election when he reported out about allegations that Hillary Clinton used a private server for her official work as Secretary of State.

If Mueller is to observe the 60-day rule, if he has indictments to announce before November, he has to get that done by Labor Day. Thus, he is likely right now, as part of the discovery process, telling people he has been investigating that he is about to indict them. This doubtlessly includes Trump Jr. If the young Donald has been thus informed you know he shared that news with his father.

Among other consequential matters affecting Trump's state of mind--the Manafort trial, the Michael Cohen tapes, the subpoenaing of Trump's accountant (Allen Weisselberg)--the impending indictment of Donald Jr. has father Trump in a panic. As I mentioned yesterday this unraveling has drawn Hope Hicks back into the mix. And has Trump flailing about in a tweet storm. Including Sunday's in which for the first time he admitted there was collusion. After months of denial, even though collusion occurred, according to Fox News's and Trump's and his people's twisted logic, it is not a crime. 

As my grandmother used to say, "We'll see."

In spite of Trump reflexively dumping all of this on his son, if there are three or four people in the world he cares about (and this may be stretching the limits of his caring) it is his boys, Ivanka, and again Hope Hicks. 

If true, expect at least one of two things--

First, he will begin to churn out a bushel of presidential pardons. For  all his children as well as for Michael Cohen, Paul Manafort, his accountant, and of course Hope.

If and when he does this there will be the expected outcry from all Democrats, a few Republicans, and Fox. Whether this will turn out to be more than a week of stories will depend on how it is absorbed by his base--35 percent of the adult public. Will they let him get away with this "murder" as they would if he shot someone on Fifth Avenue?

For the most part I think they would. The pardons will be spun as the actions of a loving father who acts to protect his children from the "enemies of the people" and rogue players such as Mueller, who are leading the biggest "witch hunt" in American history. Forget Salem for the moment and the abuses of Joseph McCarthy.

Then there is the Watergate alternative--Trump seems sincerely to want to meet one-on-one with Mueller and to tell him his version of the story. This won't work and I suspect even Trump with his colossal ego is aware of this. More than anyone else (except for Putin) he knows Mueller has the goods on him. Mueller may have already told Trump's attorneys he is about to be cited as a target of his investigation and soon may be designated an unindicted co-conspirator.

Why then does Trump appear to be so insistent on meeting with Mueller? 

Perhaps, with Hope Hicks counseling and soothing him, he will agree to make the biggest deal of his life--taking a page from Richard Nixon, he would agree to resign the presidency in exchange for Mueller pulling the plug on the rest of the investigation.

Or a third version--Trump and Mueller agree to both options: a host of pardons plus a deal that includes resignation.

In this admittedly unlikely scenario, instead of others taking a bullet for Trump he takes one to protect the very few people he cares about. 

And then he takes a victory lap, relishing in the cheers of his people as he declares his mission as president accomplished.

August 6, 2018--All the President's Women

Rona can be skeptical. Even on occasion a little cynical. And so when it was widely reported that First Lady Melania Trump appeared to be showing signs of independent thought, when First Daughter Ivanka in public spoke critical words about her Daddy, and then when it was reported that Hope Hicks on Saturday was seen sneaking onto Air Force One to join Trump on a flight to a rally in Ohio, Rona was quick to conclude that all female family and special friends, all hands were urgently summoned on deck as recent polls show Trump's support among college-educated women approaching zero percent. He can't win reelection with only middle-age, to quote Trump, "low-IQ" white guys on board.

First the First Daughter--

Ivanka went a version of rogue last week. This was previewed by her and husband Jared showing up again at their senior-advisor White House jobs. They had been AWOL for months while things were unraveling as if to stay as far away as possible from it and the widening stain. Perhaps concluding they had nothing to lose before they themselves were scooped up in the same net.

And though Ivanka refused to answer probing questions during her interview last week with AXIOS, she did concede that the separation of young children from their parents at the Texas-Mexico border was "a low point" in the Trump presidency and that she is"vehemently opposed" to family separation. 

Then there was Melania-- 

After porn star Stormy Daniels and Playboy model Karen McDougal hit the headlines with their claims that Trump paid them off so they wouldn't reveal their trysting, as if she were hearing this for the first time, the First Lady absented herself for a number of weeks (including to the hospital), made a couple of solo visits to the border, and while there--contravening Trump's policies--she showed some empathy for the plight of migrants.

Then, when she resumed traveling with Trump and appeared with him at the NATO and EU meetings and after that the visit to England and the Helsinki summit with Putin, on the flight home, the president caught her sneaking a look at CNN. He went ballastic, demanding that on AFOne, Fox News was to be on all TVs all the time. Melania demurred saying loud enough for many to hear that she'll watch what she wants, thank you very much.

And then, after Trump railed against LeBron James, when Melania said she'd be open to visiting with him at the school he is funding in Ohio for at-risk kids, Twitter and switchboards lit up across the country, suggesting that James is more untouchable than the Pope, who, during the campaign Trump got away with trashing. Sniping at James, though, calling him "low IQ" (Trump's favorite epithet for black people) may be a red line that Trump crossed at great risk as LeBron is very popular among Trump's base of dead-enders.

Finally, Hope Hicks--

This one I don't get. If they are fooling around, Air Force One is not the best place for that. But perhaps because the Mueller probe is closing in fast (there's the Manafort trial underway, new threatening information about the collusion meeting in Trump Tower (Trump finally admitting yesterday it was about getting dirt on "an opponent"), Michael Cohn leaking one of his tapes, and the deposing of Trump's H&R Block accountant, the president is unraveling. The various rallies at which he recently appeared exposed a seemingly desperate man fighting for his life. Holding Hope's hand and being assured by her how wonderful he is and how unfair everyone is being to him could be a version of just what the doctor ordered. That is, if Trump had a real doctor.

So, in spite of Rona thinking this is a carefully choreographed piece of political manipulation designed to show Trump's compassion for children in order to offset the hemorrhaging of support for Trump among women, I am inclined to see it as every woman for herself.

For them it's about life after Trump. Five minutes after he leaves the White House Melania, understandably, will be looking to cash in her prenup and be rid of him. Can you imagine what even one day with him must be like for her?

Ivanka had or has an independent life in New York City among the wealthy, progressive, youthful elite. She needs to beat a path back to them if she wants to resume life as she knew it. But don't expect this to work. She could by now be toxic.

Hope? I suspect she will be the last one to walk away. There is something between them that is even stronger than family. If you're inclined, she's the one to feel sorry for.

With Hope Hicks

March 12, 2018--Distractions

We needed some laughs without Donald Trump being the source of them and so we turned to TV. 

Not CNN, MSNBC, or Fox. We needed a break from that.

Of course, though late last week the North Korean business was being played out in screaming headlines and Breaking News was constantly interrupting normal broadcasting--with Breaking News the new normal--Fox & Friends, that idiotic morning show, dredged up a few new things about O.J. Simpson to yack about to distract their viewers. The "gloves don't fit" and whatnot.

We almost never watch entertainment programming on network TV--I confess I had not seen a full episode of Seinfeld until about six months ago and now am addicted to it, though not unhappily, I still have been unable to find a way to like Friends--not wanting more shows to become compulsive about--we try to read and talk to each other when seeking distraction from news of the day, news of the hour, or news of the last five minutes.

At lunch with a friend last week, sensing our agitation about all things Trump, he asked if we had ever watched Episodes.

"Episodes of what?" I asked.

"The TV series. Episodes the TV series, which ran for five seasons on Showtime."

Never even having heard of it should give you some idea of how out of touch we are. Much of that out-of-touchness, I should confess, intentional.

When he said it was created by the co-creator of Friends, I stopped listening and tried to turn the conversation back to why Hope Hicks was quitting her White House job. "That's like a sitcom," I said.

But desperate, the other night, having run out of things to talk about, Rona said, "Why don't we give in and take a look at that show Lee mentioned. He has a life so any TV show he mentions might actually be fun."

And so we did. By Sunday evening we had watched all five seasons, about 40 half-hour episodes.

We love them and are already feeling blue that soon we will miss the extra-vivid characters and hilarious situations and will have nothing to do but return to talking about Trump and Kim Jong-un.

Oh, I forgot to mention, Episodes is about . . . 

And it stars Matt LeBlanc from Fr . . .

March 2, 2018--Rona Predicts

I like making predictions, Rona hates to. I like uncertainty, she likes things to be based more on facts. And so this morning when she said she had a prediction, I shut up to hear what was on her mind.

Hope Hicks.

We had been reading the WaPo story about why "Hope Hicks Resigning Matters."

She is the Trump whisperer, the only one, perhaps including daughter Ivanka, who can talk sense to him and thus her loss is a big deal to Trump and maybe even America.

At least that's the thrust of the Washington Post story.

"My prediction," Rona said, "is that she has no intention of leaving. She's upset that Trump is angry with her, maybe even yelled at her for confessing to a congressional committee that, for his benefit, she sometimes tells "white lies."

"Humm," I said.

"It's more like a lovers' quarrel. You have a disagreement, you have a fight, and one or the other packs a bag and threatens to leave."

"Sounds a little familiar," I said.

"It's more a threat than a plan. So expect to see her remaining in the White House, sulking and pouting, until he makes it up to her. A traditional guy Trump's age might think that flowers or chocolates would do the trick, but I suspect Hope will want something more. What that might be I wouldn't begin to know, but a box of Godivas for a 29-year-old who barely eats so she can remain model thin won't get the job done. You can predict what might work," Rona said, "But I'm predicting she's not going anywhere. Notice, she didn't resign. She said she plans to resign. That's very different." 

And then added, "Mark it down. You heard it here first."

March 1, 2018--President Pence

Yesterday I began to worry about what kind of president Mike Pence will be.

Among other things what will it be like having a genuine religious fanatic in the Oval Office after the current narcissist-in-chief resigns. 

I worried that Pence may do more harm by actually being effective, with "effective" measured by what he will be able to get done by strokes of the executive-order pen as well as through legislation--enough members of Congress will be so relieved that Trump and his enablers packed up and left that they gleefully will vote to pass bills to allow prayer in schools as well as arm the teachers leading those prayers.

I know, I really do, that contemplating this is premature and overblown--I don't want to jinx it--but after eternally-loyal Hope Hicks up and quit, beaten-down Jeff Sessions hit back after Trump savaged him again on Twitter, calling it "disgraceful" that Sessions did not do enough to investigate Obama's alleged illegal surveillance of the Trump campaign and transition, feeling safe to do so because he sensed that Trump has been substantially diminished, I'm imagining Pence in charge because, in addition to the above, Jared Kushner is a politically deadman walking, and, above all else, Robert Mueller allowed the news to leak out yesterday that Trump is now officially a target of his widespread investigation--that he may be indictable for colluding with the Russians and leading the obvious obstruction of justice--for these reasons and more, time is running out for Trump, running out faster than senior staff of the White House are running out on the incredibly shrinking presidency (Kellyanne Conway is the latest from the inner circle apparently about to leave), for these reasons and more this is why I've begun to think about what a Pence presidency will look like.

To move the process along here's what I think Trump should do. My two-cents--

Surprise everyone by holding true to all the things he put on the table yesterday before congressional leaders regarding what to do to implement gun controls. Follow Dick Sports' and Walmart's example by raising to 21 the age required to buy all types of guns from 22 pistols to semi-automatic weapons; require "hard" background checks for all gun purchases, including those through gun shows; provide money to enable schools to become "hard targets"; consider limiting the sale of military-style rifles, especially to the mentally disturbed; and forget the crazy idea to arm teachers.

Work hard at this during his remaining time in office and not by tomorrow abandon the agenda to the NRA.

Then, return to the deal that a bipartisan congressional group agreed to last month that peeked Trump's interest for 48 hours before he jettisoned it and the DACA youth it was intended to legalize. It was a potential piece of legislation that had a good chance of being enacted into law. Many Republicans as well as most Democrats want to dispose of this politically toxic issue so take advantage of that. 

By doing this Trump would leave behind something of an actual legacy. Not just the obverse of everything Obama stood for and accomplished. 

Thus fortified by history, before things with Mueller get worse for Trump, as they now rapidly will, Trump should declare victory and join Omarosa, Kellyanne, Hope, and Ivanka wherever they settle. 

If Gerald Ford who succeeded Richard Nixon after he resigned the presidency claimed when he assumed the presidency that as a result "Our long national nightmare is over," Trump justly would be able to say his long nightmare is over.

Then we know what happened to Ford after he pardoned Nixon--in 1976 he lost the presidential election to Jimmy Carter. If this is a harbinger that would mean we'd have to endure President Pence for just a couple of years.

But we will be able to quote what Gerald Ford also said on the day he assumed the presidency--"Our constitution works."

February 27, 2018--Trump Unfettered

As much as I am enjoying following along as special counsel Robert Mueller makes Donald Trump and those close to him who not only colluded with the Russians but obstructed justice, as much as I like to see them squirm while their world continues to implode and they are forced to face justice--I like schadenfreude as much as the next fellow--I am beginning to worry about some of the unintended consequences of, one-by-one, Trump's people being indicted or copping pleas.

I do look forward to seeing the Trump boys' comeuppance, Hope Hicks being exposed for the enabler she is, as eager as I am to see Ivanka brought down for taking commercial advantage of her First Daughter status, as much as Jared Kushner likely deserves to be exposed and prosecuted for financial shenanigans, and of course above all how I crave the outing and perhaps impeachment or prosecution of the Godfather of the Trump Crime Family, while impatient for all of this, I am beginning to worry what Trump will be like when he finds himself essentially alone in the White House with Hope and Jared and especially Ivanka gone, as one way or the other they all likely will be.

No matter what Mueller finds, even if the Democrats in November take over the House of Representatives and impeach Trump (40/60), he will not be convicted by the Senate, and since he delusionally is not a quitter (his whole being depends upon viewing himself as winning at everything), he will not take a Nixon and resign and we will be faced with two-and-a-half more years of Trump as president with the nuclear codes not far from his night table. 

As fundamentally corrupt and perhaps as felonious as they are, Hope, Jared, and Ivanka may be the only ones who have the access and capacity to have a chance to moderate him, such as moderating Trump can ever be.

With them gone, do we want to see a White House with weaselly Stephen Miller even more empowered, former UN Ambassador John Bolton brought in as head of the National Security Council, and Steve Bannon re-ensconced, this time as Secretary of State?

Whatever small measure of sanity and constraint John Kelly, Rex Tillerson, H.R. McMaster, and James Mattis provide, with the three children exiled, and the hawks more in charge, what would the next two years of Trump's presidency look like? 

War with North Korea? We have a preview of that right now as Trump didn't even give our ally South Korea the courtesy of an additional day or two to close the Olympics before imposing a form of naval blockade on North Korea, virtually an act of war as blockades are.

One more round of indictments of those closest to Trump and . . . 

The one proven thing for presidents to do when cornered, as Trump surely will be, is to start or intensify a war. John Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson, and Richard Nixon did that in Vietnam, Reagan invaded Grenada, and George HW and George W did the same in Iraq. As a result HW's approval ratings shot up to 90 percent as did his son's.

To make matters even more psychosomatically complicated, it appears that First Lady Melania is weighing in on the Ivanka-Kushner-versus-John Kelly blood feud. She is taking Kelly's side in a deeply Freudian struggle that ultimately is about the jealousy she doubtlessly feels as Trump so clearly prefers the daughter to the spouse.

While Trump leers at and talks smuttily about Ivanka and gets exposed for cavorting with pornstars and Playmates, Melania seethes and then draws upon her Eastern European DNA to come up with an appropriate form of revenge, that among other things includes getting rid of the competition.

Some of this may be over-speculation, but is it wise to deny that this scenario is plausible and if true imperils us?

I would prefer to wake up one morning to find that the Trumps, grifters that they are, overnight moved out of the White House. But since that is inconceivable, I am thinking it's prudent to hope the three kids figure out a way to hang in. At least through November. Maybe even until 2020.

February 12, 2018--Our Best Hope

What else is new. Over breakfast Saturday Rona and I were again talking about Donald Trump. This was in the midst of the Rob Porter fiasco. 

The fiasco was not about his two battered ex-wives (that was tragic) but about the way chief of staff Kelly handled, no, ignored the situation and tried to cover up the fact that Porter was denied a security clearance because the FBI found he was a spousal abuser. 

Additionally distressing, no one on the Trump team, including its supreme leader, did anything about it until it became publicly known and the White House was reluctantly forced to fire him. 

Reluctantly, not because Porter did such a good job, which was to manage the paper flow to Trump. Considering the fact that Trump does't read, that suggests Porter's was less than a full time job, which--gossip--meant he had the time to fool around with Trump uber-insider Hope Hicks. 

Trump and his Praetorian Guard handled his firing very gently--praising Porter highly as he was marched out the White House door because Trump and his inner circle feared he might show up on Robert Mueller's witness list and they didn't want to do anything further to incite him. 

Oh the stories Porter could tell Mueller from his vantage point right outside the Oval Office.

"You remember" Rona said, "the first person we knew who said he was not only putting out a Trump lawn sign but predicted that Trump would secure the nomination and also win the election?"

"I do remember that. It was up in Maine, it was Joe, and most amazing, he got it right even though Trump had just announced he was running and everyone, everyone, apparently including even Trump and his family, thought he had no chance. People were sure he was running half-seriously to build his brand. In other words, to make more money.

"We thought Joe was crazy."

"But he turned out to be right. Do you also remember what he said when we asked him why he was supporting Trump?"

"I do," Rona said, "It was because he felt Trump knew how to get things done. As a successful builder and businessman he had skills that would translate well in the White House. He'd be CEO-in-chief. And that's what we needed after eight years of Obama, where, Joe claimed, very little that was needed got done.

"I asked him to give us an example of Trump getting things done that qualified him to become president much less a successful one."

"He talked about the iceskating rink in Central Park. How the city couldn't make it work--the ice for years wouldn't freeze solid and though over six years they spent $3.0 million dollars of taxpayer money they couldn't fix it. After two years of agitating Trump finally got the mayor to agree to let him try, charging the city only for the cost of materials. In four months, 25 percent under budget, it was working fine and is now called the Trump Iceskating Rink."

"We were surprised that Joe knew so much about it. But he told us that not only did he but so also did a lot of others and that they would become his voters and defenders."

"Obviously Joe was right about the nomination and election but he was dead wrong about Trump being able to 'hire' only the best people or 'get things done.'"

"It turns out Trump's better at making messes than accomplishing things. Take Rob Porter as the most recent example."

"Can you imagine," Rona said, "How much worse it would be if Trump was actually competent and able to get things done? I hate to think what that would look like. At the moment, ineptitude is our best hope."

"One thing Trump accomplished."

"What's that?"

"After all the messes Joe's no longer willing to talk about politics or Trump."