February 23, 2018--Occupy Tallahassee

Some are prognosticating that the gun control "movement" led by survivors of last week's shootings at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, FL, will be short-lived.

The odds are that they are right. 

To sustain this effort would require children now ranging in age from 14 to 18 to devote themselves to it essentially full time while still enrolled in high school or when their time soon comes to attend college or for some, as members of the ROTC, are obligated to enter the army. If their cause were taken over by a formal organizational structure run by adults it would lose most of its visceral effectiveness. 

Half of Never Again's current appeal is not just the popularity of the issues these kids are insisting be addressed in Tallahassee and Washington but the fact that this is a children's crusade. Children who in their newly-imposed maturity and youthful wisdom are so amazingly good on TV and the Internet and thus are especially viable in our social-media age.

So, as CNN, MSNBC, and the New York Times move on, as they soon will, it is likely to run out of visible gas. In other words, it will no longer be as compelling and deeply moving a story as it currently is. This is inevitable.

But then again, I am reminded of another movement organized and carried out by young people which popped up unexpectedly, attracted a great following among the public and in the media, and then seemingly passed from view. 

Occupy Wall Street. 

Its outward manifestation, occupying Zuccottti Park not far from the Stock Market on Wall Street, lasted just 28 days from September 17 through November 15, 2011, but its basic message lives on. Occupy itself passed from the scene but its central message is still with us and continues to deeply affect our political discourse--the relentless economic inequality that plagues our society. The disparity in the ownership of America's wealth between the top 1% and the rest of us.

Zuccotti Park is back to normal, occupied again mainly by stock traders taking a smoking break and New York City's resilient pigeon population, but we still have lively debates about economic fairness. Bernie Sanders, for example, would not have been as viable as he turned out to be if it weren't for the issues Occupy Wall Street placed before us.

And it could be, hopefully will be, also true for Never Again. I am feeling that our discourse, such as it is, about firearms will be permanently altered. These kids and millions of others vote or will vote when they are old enough and those they have already inspired (count me among those) will keep their "common sense" issues before us and will compel candidates at the state and national levels to take their views into active consideration if they want to protect their public sinecures.

If as I sense that those as rigid and craven as Marco Rubio and Donald Trump are sounding different it may be that something new and welcome is happening thanks to those inspiring young people we have this week been getting to know.

November 9, 2017--GOP In Full Panic Mode

After the Democrats' showing in Virginia, where they did much better than projected and where many saw the outcome as a negative response to the Trump presidency, Republicans, less than 24 hours after the results were known, were in full panic.

As they should be.

Most alarming to them is the huge turnout, especially among suburban women who a year ago formed an important part of the Trump constituency. Without them, the GOP may see their majority ended in the Senate and challenged in the House.

All of a sudden, everything to them seems bleak and even hopeless.

Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz must already be thinking about 2020.

Lindsay Graham and Jeb Bush too?

Can we please get Herman Cain stirring?

Most Republican members of Congress can't stand Trump and see him mainly as a political meal ticket. A ticket to ride. A signing pen if they ever manage to get anything passed by both houses of Congress. 

After Tuesday, don't expect to see too many signing ceremonies in the Rose Garden.

If these weasels conclude that Trump can't deliver the goods, they will dump him in a heartbeat. Many, gleefully. 

Someone else who until 48 hours ago seemed invincible was equally a loser. 2017's version of Karl Rove--Steve Bannon. 

Bannon who has been swaggering around for the past few months, masterminding the demise of the traditional Republican Party suddenly feels diminished. He's the one who convinced poor Ed Gillespie to pander to the Trump base during the last couple of weeks of the Virginia campaign. Under Bannon's tutelage, Gillespie made a big thing about the sanctity of Confederate statues and how we need to deport all immigrants.

How did that work out? With a week to go the race was supposed to be a dead heat. A few days later Gillespie lost by 9 points.

Expect Trump to try to cozy up again to Chuck and Nancy. Expect them to say, "No thanks."

They are expert at smelling blood in the water and they now have no interest in doing anything to help resurrect him. They're thinking Speaker of the House, Senate Majority Leader.

It's a crazy business but what a difference a day or two makes.

Governor Elect Northam

May 20, 2014--Veeps

Though the 2016 election is more than two years away, it is roaring ahead.

One would think that much needs to happen between now and then to fill out the field of candidates and for the campaign itself to unfold.

That's what one would think, especially since the incumbent president is constitutionally not permitted to run for reelection. Thus, four candidates need to be selected, presidential and vice presidential candidates for both parties. That usually involves endless machinations.

But this time around I can save potential candidates and you a lot of effort and expense by filling out with assurance at least three of the four slots.

Unfortunately, we will miss a vibrant Democratic party primary season since Hillary Clinton only needs to formally announce her intention to seek the presidency for the nomination to be summarily given to her.

There will thus be no "likable enough" moments nor Joe Biden ramblings. The only uncertainty will be who will be her running mate.

I can end that speculation right now--Hillary Clinton's vice presidential partner will be the mayor of San Antonio, Julian Castro or his identical twin, Congressman Joaquin Castro. Or, since no one can tell them apart, it could be both of them.

Democrats are fantasizing that red-state Texas has the potential to be flipped to become a blue state, virtually assuring Hillary's election to the presidency. So to have a Latino Texan as her running mate is  irresistible and inevitable. This is largely why President Obama is about to appoint him Housing Secretary. To beef up Castro's resumé

So that's two down, two nominations to go.

On the GOP side, though the presidential nominee will be either Rand Paul or, sorry, Mitt Romney,  we know that with cynical pandering equivalent to the Democrats', they too will choose an Hispanic VP candidate. In their case it will be Marco Rubio of purple-state Florida. If Republicans can win the stand-your-ground state (and appeal to maybe 35-40 percent of Latinos nationwide), they at least have a shot at defeating Hillary. But don't hold your breath.

Don't hold your breath because Marco, though Hispanic, is Cuban-American and being Cuban-American is not the same as being Mexican-America as is/are the Castros. In other words, all Latinos are not alike any more than all Asians.

But for those of us seeking entertainment from a out-of-control political contest, all is not lost.

If Herman Cain, Rick Perry, Donald Trump, and Chris Christie decide to seek the nomination, the GOP clown car will not be riderless nor humorless. And then, of course, there is the ongoing hope that Michele Bachmann will show up, dancing up a storm with her gay-curing husband.