May 20, 2014--Veeps

Though the 2016 election is more than two years away, it is roaring ahead.

One would think that much needs to happen between now and then to fill out the field of candidates and for the campaign itself to unfold.

That's what one would think, especially since the incumbent president is constitutionally not permitted to run for reelection. Thus, four candidates need to be selected, presidential and vice presidential candidates for both parties. That usually involves endless machinations.

But this time around I can save potential candidates and you a lot of effort and expense by filling out with assurance at least three of the four slots.

Unfortunately, we will miss a vibrant Democratic party primary season since Hillary Clinton only needs to formally announce her intention to seek the presidency for the nomination to be summarily given to her.

There will thus be no "likable enough" moments nor Joe Biden ramblings. The only uncertainty will be who will be her running mate.

I can end that speculation right now--Hillary Clinton's vice presidential partner will be the mayor of San Antonio, Julian Castro or his identical twin, Congressman Joaquin Castro. Or, since no one can tell them apart, it could be both of them.

Democrats are fantasizing that red-state Texas has the potential to be flipped to become a blue state, virtually assuring Hillary's election to the presidency. So to have a Latino Texan as her running mate is  irresistible and inevitable. This is largely why President Obama is about to appoint him Housing Secretary. To beef up Castro's resumé

So that's two down, two nominations to go.

On the GOP side, though the presidential nominee will be either Rand Paul or, sorry, Mitt Romney,  we know that with cynical pandering equivalent to the Democrats', they too will choose an Hispanic VP candidate. In their case it will be Marco Rubio of purple-state Florida. If Republicans can win the stand-your-ground state (and appeal to maybe 35-40 percent of Latinos nationwide), they at least have a shot at defeating Hillary. But don't hold your breath.

Don't hold your breath because Marco, though Hispanic, is Cuban-American and being Cuban-American is not the same as being Mexican-America as is/are the Castros. In other words, all Latinos are not alike any more than all Asians.

But for those of us seeking entertainment from a out-of-control political contest, all is not lost.

If Herman Cain, Rick Perry, Donald Trump, and Chris Christie decide to seek the nomination, the GOP clown car will not be riderless nor humorless. And then, of course, there is the ongoing hope that Michele Bachmann will show up, dancing up a storm with her gay-curing husband.

April 25, 2014--Two Weak Men

Does anyone think the situation in Ukraine is headed in a good direction when two weak men's manhood is challenged?

One parades around topless, flexing in leather outfits while the other puts on a veneer of cool in search of his inner macho.

This may be one of the best recent examples of how the personal trumps the rational. It's all about mine-is-bigger-than-yours.

In an Enlightenment, post-Cold-War world reasonable self-interest is supposed to prevail. As the Godfather taught, "It's not personal. It's business."

Well . . .

A little history might be helpful--

In the 17th century, war between the Tsardom of Russia and the Polish-Lituanian Commonwealth resulted in Russian imperial control of most of what is now--at least for the moment--eastern Ukraine. And it wasn't until after the First World War that what we now think of as Ukraine was assigned its current borders and became semi-independent.

This is a mere sketch of Ukraine's shifting geography. If inclined, one can look back as far as the 7th century or as recently as the 1950s to see more ebb and flow.

So, in a rational or objective world, for the United States to be lecturing Russia, actually Putin, about Ukraine's immutable borders makes about as much historical sense as Putin chiding the United States, actually Obama, about our Southwestern borders, much of which belonged to Mexico until the mid-19th century. If we applied the same principles to ourselves that we are pressing on Russia, it would mean relinquishing Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, and California.

So, what we are seeing is neither about history nor the aspirations of peoples from polyglot backgrounds (look at a current ethnic map of Ukraine if you want a glimpse of these deeper, nationalist problems) assigned to a fiction of a country, but rather the flexing of the out-of-control egos and vulnerabilities of two men who are locked in a dance likely spinning toward disaster.

It doesn't take a seer to predict that before too long Putin will make direct moves to re-annex at least the eastern half of Ukraine and who knows what else after that. And, in response, when Obama's layer of seemingly admirable cool cracks, who knows what fires within might be smoldering and what he might feel propelled to do.