February 25, 2016--Jose the Fanatic

Of the many startling things about Donald TRUMP's decisive victory in Wednesday's Nevada caucuses, beyond the fact that there was an historic turnout and he garnered more votes that Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio combined, was the fact that he also won easily among Latinos.

So much of both parties' campaigns is challenging conventional wisdom--that to win one needs a powerful, big-data-directed ground game (TRUMP has won three of four primaries and caucuses with hardly any ground game at all); that it's all about who can raise the most money (Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz did and look what happened to them--TRUMP raised hardly any, spent even less, and look who's leading); that Americans won't vote for a socialist (Bernie Sanders take note); and Latino voters overwhelmingly vote for Latino candidates (ask Rubio and Cruz about that) the same way blacks tend to vote for blacks, Jews for Jews, and so on.

In Nevada, TRUMP ran away with 45 percent of the Hispanic vote. Note, in 2000, George W. Bush was elected largely as the result of appealing successfully to Latino voters--he got an historic 40 percent nationally.

So TRUMP, who pretty much everyone having access to a microphone said would be lucky to get 10 percent of the Hispanic-American vote considering how he castigated illegal immigrants (mainly, to him, Mexicans) defaming them by labeling them "murderers" and "rapists" and promising that he would deport 12 million, that Donald TRUMP thus far, especially with the Latino-rich voters of Nevada, has run the table. How it might translate to the general election is for the moment another matter.

But his "appeal" to Hispanic voters is worth some thought. Why would any vote for him?

For insight I am reminded of one of my favorite Philip Roth stories--"Eli the Fanatic."

It is also one of his most overlooked, perhaps because of the direct way in which it deals with and excoriates secularized, seemingly-assimilated Jews.

Set in suburban America, it concerns a non-observant Jew, lawyer Eli Peck, who is hired by his Jewish neighbors to convince a recently-arirved group of orthodox Jews to close the yeshiva they established in their midst. The other Jews in town are embarrassed by the visible presence of these Hasids, fearing they will call attention to them and thereby interfere with their desire to blend in among the largely gentile residents of Woodenton.

To make a short story short, Eli fails in his attempts to get the ultra-orthodox to back off, including abandoning their traditional ways of dressing, and, after an epiphany of his own, gives up his normal wardrobe and appears before his stunned and outraged Jewish neighbors in Hasid garb, thereby exposing the ethnic roots of all of them.

Could it be that TRUMP's appeal to a large and growing percentage of Latino voters is because increasing numbers counter-intuitively support his views about illegal immigrants--that many favor building the wall and deporting those here without proper documents?

As in Roth's Woodenton, those Hispanics in the United States for decades and for others in the Southwest for many centuries, from even before Europeans landed at Plymouth Rock, for Latino citizens, for Hispanics who are comfortably "Americanized," having so many other Hispanics here illegally threatens their sense of relatively unobtrusive assimilation.

For Roth's secularized, well-educated, and affluent Jews, having Hasids in their midst, they feared, exposed them to their Christian neighbors who would not distinguish between them and the ultra-orthodox. Seeing them both in the same light and thus out of step with American culture, still rooted in Eastern European beliefs and superstitions, and wanting to live and cling together in self-imposed ghettos.

Perhaps the United States' most successful and assimilated Latinos, who are not self-hating, have some of the same kinds of feelings and support TRUMP as one way of declaring loyalty to the great American immigrant narrative, not wanting their place in society to be confused and conflated with those who came here illegally and live insufficiently in the shadows.

Philip Roth

February 12, 2016--The Beginning of the End of Bernie Sanders

In yesterday's debate with Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton won by a TKO.

For non-boxing fans, a TKO is a technical knockout. One fighter is doing so poorly that the referee steps in to stop the match.

Last night, the PBS and CBS moderators stepped in and ended it seven minutes early. Not because they lost track of time but because Hillary was overwhelming Bernie to the point that he began to resemble Marco Rubio--no matter the question he kept returning to his default position that the economy is rigged and it is the one-percent who benefit at the expense of the rest of us.

His problem was exposed early when Hillary dismantled his health care plan. Such as it is.

Agreeing that Obamacare is not the final answer--20 million Americans are covered by it but at least that many remain unprotected--she calmly, subtly, and not-so-subtly poked holes in his ideas to pay for it.

This was not that difficult to do because Sanders' numbers do not add up (nary a progressive economist disagrees with that) and he was left on stage unstrung. So much so that I found it hard to watch as I hate uneven boxing matches. American Idol was on TV at the same time and, political junky that I am and far from a fan of Hillary's--Joe Biden where are you--I still found myself switching back and forth.

So where are we?

Again last night a newly-retooled Hillary was politically brilliant at calmly playing to and at times pandering to the next demographics that she and Bernie will face in Nevada (Latinos) and South Carolina (African Americans). Though Bernie also could be shameless in reaching out to these communities, it was obvious that Hillary is much better at it. To be fair, she is also much more experienced in working with and for people of color and more comfortable talking about their issues, experiences, needs, and aspirations.

So it was Clinton by a TKO.

Bernie's only hope was that no one was watching. Aren't we all by now suffering from debate fatigue? Even if that was true, he has a chance in Nevada but will surely lose in South Carolina. The congressional Black Caucus endorsed her yesterday, South Carolina Congressman Jim Clyburn will do so this weekend and, chiming in, the bellwether Reverend Al Sharpton, incapable of turning away from a mealticket, will be on board by the middle of next week.

Among other things, I feel badly for young people (including my niece) who have made such a passionate commitment to Bernie.

But there is some good news--there's a lot to learn about life when things are not going your way and it feels as if you are being unfairly (or fairly) pummeled. It is at those times when the depth of one's beliefs are challenged that it is necessary to dig deep and keep on fighting. To use an old-fashioned phrase--it's character building. Who can't use more of that?

November 24, 2014--A Child Shall Lead Them

Though often misapplied, this from Isaiah 11:6-9, could have been the title of Barack Obama's Thursday night speech about immigration.

No matter what one thinks about his use of executive powers to shield about 5.0 million undocumented immigrants from deportation, one would have to agree that in content it is all about family values. So if Republicans can for a moment stop fulminating about what they claim is Obama's emperor-like behavior, they might see that, politically, he has again snookered them.

Even if they find a way to defund Obama's actions or get the federal court system to overturn them and declare them an abuse of constitutional power (both questionable), they will pay a fierce political price when they are seen to be opposing what Obama did--protect families from being torn apart by the Immigration Service.

Specifically, Obama's executive action (the most ambitious and extensive in American history--Reagan's so-called "amnesty" executive order in 1986 covered only 100,000 illegal immigrants) calls for more border security (he can do this administratively and the GOP loves anything having to do with sealing our borders), taking action to make it easier for immigrants with high-level technical skills to remain in the U.S., and the continuing deportation of undocumented criminals (Obama has done 80 percent more of that than all previous presidents combined); but--and it's a very big but--those 5.0 million affected by his executive orders are all protected from deportation if and only if they belong to family units.

What he is doing pertains just to the 5.0 million or so who have lived in the U.S. for five or more years and are either children or the parents of children who are here legally. Here legally because they were born in the USA and thus are citizens (see the 14th Amendment) or were brought here illegally before the age of four and are now legally protected.

Childless individuals and couples will not be protected.

In other words, the only adults who will not be rounded up and deported are those "illegals" who are parents.

Obama's approach is not amnesty nor a "path to citizenship," but rather a statement about Family Values.

Something always trumpeted by Republicans and emphasized by their religious leaders. Thus, the political brilliance of Obama's move. And, of course, its humanity.

At their political peril, if Republicans continue to ignore the family values that undergird Obama's actions and focus instead on process questions and issues such as the separation of governmental power, they will find themselves in future elections with very few Latino supporters.

My prediction, therefore, is that because some in the Republican Party are smart enough to figure this out and after a few weeks of demonologizing Obama for acting unilaterally they will pass a series of bills to make what Obama did irrelevant, because what he said Thursday evening was that his executive orders are designed to defer deportations so that covered immigrants will be able to "stay in the country temporarily" (the deferring and temporality parts are what will keep his actions from being overturned in the courts)  and that if the Congress presents him with an acceptable bill he will sign it and tear up his executive orders.

Indeed it may turn out that a child will lead us.

May 20, 2014--Veeps

Though the 2016 election is more than two years away, it is roaring ahead.

One would think that much needs to happen between now and then to fill out the field of candidates and for the campaign itself to unfold.

That's what one would think, especially since the incumbent president is constitutionally not permitted to run for reelection. Thus, four candidates need to be selected, presidential and vice presidential candidates for both parties. That usually involves endless machinations.

But this time around I can save potential candidates and you a lot of effort and expense by filling out with assurance at least three of the four slots.

Unfortunately, we will miss a vibrant Democratic party primary season since Hillary Clinton only needs to formally announce her intention to seek the presidency for the nomination to be summarily given to her.

There will thus be no "likable enough" moments nor Joe Biden ramblings. The only uncertainty will be who will be her running mate.

I can end that speculation right now--Hillary Clinton's vice presidential partner will be the mayor of San Antonio, Julian Castro or his identical twin, Congressman Joaquin Castro. Or, since no one can tell them apart, it could be both of them.

Democrats are fantasizing that red-state Texas has the potential to be flipped to become a blue state, virtually assuring Hillary's election to the presidency. So to have a Latino Texan as her running mate is  irresistible and inevitable. This is largely why President Obama is about to appoint him Housing Secretary. To beef up Castro's resumé

So that's two down, two nominations to go.

On the GOP side, though the presidential nominee will be either Rand Paul or, sorry, Mitt Romney,  we know that with cynical pandering equivalent to the Democrats', they too will choose an Hispanic VP candidate. In their case it will be Marco Rubio of purple-state Florida. If Republicans can win the stand-your-ground state (and appeal to maybe 35-40 percent of Latinos nationwide), they at least have a shot at defeating Hillary. But don't hold your breath.

Don't hold your breath because Marco, though Hispanic, is Cuban-American and being Cuban-American is not the same as being Mexican-America as is/are the Castros. In other words, all Latinos are not alike any more than all Asians.

But for those of us seeking entertainment from a out-of-control political contest, all is not lost.

If Herman Cain, Rick Perry, Donald Trump, and Chris Christie decide to seek the nomination, the GOP clown car will not be riderless nor humorless. And then, of course, there is the ongoing hope that Michele Bachmann will show up, dancing up a storm with her gay-curing husband.