January 19, 2018--Lock Them Up

Announced Friday was the first in at least three chapters about how Russians influenced the 2016 presidential election. 

This report from the Mueller investigation and the Department of Justice did not contain a "smoking gun."

That means no one from the Trump campaign, including President Trump, was accused (yet) of knowingly playing a direct part in the dozens of efforts to derail Hillary Clinton's campaign while boosting his.

But a smoking gun, in a second or third chapter, will soon be forthcoming.

The second chapter will show the many ways in which Trump's people wittingly were involved, likely including Trump himself. A third chapter, knitting everything together, will reveal how money was the root of all evil that led to this widespread malfeasance--how Russians indirectly and directly laundered oligarchs' ill-gotten gains (including from Putin) through western banks such as Deutsche Bank, which in turn loaned it to the likes of Trump (and the Kushners) to bail out their failing real estate deals.

Expect in these two chapters to hear directly from the perpetrators themselves as perhaps up to a dozen have been cooperating, for months working undercover for the Mueller investigation, wearing a wire, in exchange for not being tried, convicted, and sent to jail.

Thus far, some of this is unintentionally ironic.

For example, we learn how pervasive and effective Russian interference was in the 2016 campaigns and likely continues to be, including as we grind toward the 2018 midterm elections.

Their use of social media and their direct involvement in dirty tricks undoubtedly helped tip the election to Trump. By working strategically how could the Russians not have turned the few thousand votes Trump needed in purple states (which they targeted) such as Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia, Florida, and Pennsylvania to build his winning margin in the Electoral College?

This means (the irony) that the Russian campaign in 2016 was more effective than Hillary's--Trump won with Russian support; she lost for the same reason.

Rattled by the implication that he is an illegitimate president Trump spent the weekend off the golf course (too windy) attacking via tweets those he perceives to be his enemies from Congressman Adam Schiff (who he called a "monster") to his own National Security Advisor, General H.R. McMaster to . . . Oprah, who Trump says is "insecure".

Making what the Russians were up to vivid, Mueller, in this first series of indictments revealed how Russian operatives showed up at campaign events, including in West Palm Beach, FL with a flatbed truck on which there was a simulated jail cell within which there was "incarcerated" an actress dressed in an orange prison jumpsuit pretending to be Hillary Clinton.

Mueller is now moving quickly, wanting to complete as much of his work as possible before Trump attempts to fire Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein in an attempt to shut down the investigation.

None of this will work. Friday witnessed the beginning of the end of the Trump presidency.

May 13, 2106--Quinnipiac

Yesterday's meetings in Washington between Donald Trump and Paul Ryan, the House and Senate Republican leaders, and the head of the Republican National Committee were ostensibly about GOP unity.

With Trump riding a wave of unorthodox popular support and with various congressional egos and ambitions to be catered to, Trump, the mountain, came to the Washington mole hill.

He was there to put his softer side on display and to show deference to the GOP leadership by coming to them in trade for their endorsement and support--he doesn't want to have to spend a billion of his own money since he has a lot less of it than he claims and a hit of that magnitude on his personal fortune would require him to liquidate much of his real estate empire.

(As a sidebar, he does not want to release his taxes because, unlike Mitt Romney four years ago who did so kicking and screaming because it showed him paying just 14 percent of his huge income in taxes, or to reveal how parsimonious he is when making charitable donations--he is notoriously not generous--Trump does not want to release information about his taxes as it would show that his net worth is much less than half of what he claims it to be.)

The dance with Paul Ryan was the trickiest since they need each other if Trump manages to win the presidency and intends to actually govern--his legislative agenda, such as it will be, will need to be approved by the House. And with Paul Ryan having stars in his eyes about running for the presidency himself in 2020 or even 2024 if Trump wins and serves two terms, Ryan has to pretend he is getting Trump to calm down and back off from some of his most extreme and divisive positions such as the temporary Muslim ban.

Also, as the publicity-obsessed Ryan knows, getting joined at the hip with Trump is the best thing he can do to build his brand. Trump's powerful spotlight shines on anyone nearby. Look at how Megyn Kelly's star rose after confronting Trump during the first GOP debate. As a result she has a $5.0 book deal and a highly-rated Fox primetime talk show.

Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell has a simpler agenda--his is one of the few senators not thinking about running for president--he love his job, the prerogatives, and the fancy office. So he dons't want any trouble with some of the down-ballot Republican senators who are worried about their reelection. To have Trump not taking pot shots at him and the landlocked Senate is pretty much all he wants to extract.

But here's what's really going on--

Just as the schedule for yesterday's Washington visit was being firmed up, the credible Quinnipiac poll of three purple swing states was released--with Trump having a bad week otherwise, matching him against Hillary Clinton, they showed him already doing better than expected in Florida and Pennsylvania (a virtual dead heat both places with Hillary leading 43 to 42), but with Trump having a outside-the-margin-of-error lead in critical Ohio--43 to 39.

Seeing these numbers and projecting their implications for November, GOP party members junior and senior by the end of the week were falling all over themselves to jump on the Trump bandwagon.

This is because these guys (and they are still mostly guys) care about just two things--themselves and winning. Not what the Founders had in mind when they drafted the Constitution but what we have devolved to: a professional politician class waging a lifetime campaign.