January 19, 2018--Lock Them Up

Announced Friday was the first in at least three chapters about how Russians influenced the 2016 presidential election. 

This report from the Mueller investigation and the Department of Justice did not contain a "smoking gun."

That means no one from the Trump campaign, including President Trump, was accused (yet) of knowingly playing a direct part in the dozens of efforts to derail Hillary Clinton's campaign while boosting his.

But a smoking gun, in a second or third chapter, will soon be forthcoming.

The second chapter will show the many ways in which Trump's people wittingly were involved, likely including Trump himself. A third chapter, knitting everything together, will reveal how money was the root of all evil that led to this widespread malfeasance--how Russians indirectly and directly laundered oligarchs' ill-gotten gains (including from Putin) through western banks such as Deutsche Bank, which in turn loaned it to the likes of Trump (and the Kushners) to bail out their failing real estate deals.

Expect in these two chapters to hear directly from the perpetrators themselves as perhaps up to a dozen have been cooperating, for months working undercover for the Mueller investigation, wearing a wire, in exchange for not being tried, convicted, and sent to jail.

Thus far, some of this is unintentionally ironic.

For example, we learn how pervasive and effective Russian interference was in the 2016 campaigns and likely continues to be, including as we grind toward the 2018 midterm elections.

Their use of social media and their direct involvement in dirty tricks undoubtedly helped tip the election to Trump. By working strategically how could the Russians not have turned the few thousand votes Trump needed in purple states (which they targeted) such as Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia, Florida, and Pennsylvania to build his winning margin in the Electoral College?

This means (the irony) that the Russian campaign in 2016 was more effective than Hillary's--Trump won with Russian support; she lost for the same reason.

Rattled by the implication that he is an illegitimate president Trump spent the weekend off the golf course (too windy) attacking via tweets those he perceives to be his enemies from Congressman Adam Schiff (who he called a "monster") to his own National Security Advisor, General H.R. McMaster to . . . Oprah, who Trump says is "insecure".

Making what the Russians were up to vivid, Mueller, in this first series of indictments revealed how Russian operatives showed up at campaign events, including in West Palm Beach, FL with a flatbed truck on which there was a simulated jail cell within which there was "incarcerated" an actress dressed in an orange prison jumpsuit pretending to be Hillary Clinton.

Mueller is now moving quickly, wanting to complete as much of his work as possible before Trump attempts to fire Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein in an attempt to shut down the investigation.

None of this will work. Friday witnessed the beginning of the end of the Trump presidency.

September 27, 2017--Whatever Happened to Jared Kushner?

Has anyone seen Jared Kushner lately? Or for that matter, Ivanka?

I ask because wasn't he the president's chief advisor and wasn't she his external conscience? Jared was in charge of foreign affairs, especially tasked to bring peace to the Middle East (I think Trump said that would be quick and easy) and she was supposed to keep him from being too inappropriate and outrageous. We see how well  that's working out.

I suspect Jared is spending all his time defending himself as special counsel Robert Mueller closes in on his deep involvement with the Russians as they worked collaboratively to undermine Hillary Clinton's campaign and, oh yes, dealing with what we just leraned--that Jared hypocritically has been using a private email account during his thus-far White House assignment. So, the Middle East will have to wait but Rex Tillerson maybe can finally become secretary of state.

As for Ivanka, she has her hands full explaining why her fashion business still has most of her stuff fabricated in China. And, also, why she too used a private email account for White House business.

Some of us, early on in the Trump administration, hoped that Jared and Ivanka would act to protect Trump from himself, from his worst impulses. And thereby protect the rest of us from the consequences of his words and behavior.

I wrote a piece back in March, "Ivanka Time," in which I hoped with gathering desperation that she had enough emotional leverage to get him to cut down on the crazy tweets and think twice before addressing the press and the public. That she would be a moderating force.

I speculated that she and Jared had a life of their own that didn't depend on being Trump's favorite daughter or son-in-law and that as he began to spin more and more out of control that they would take him aside for an intervention--to tell him, like it is, how he was losing the support of even some members of his base and was alienating independent-minded Americans.

That they might even, tearfully, tell him that if he failed to ratchet back some of his most inappropriately extravagant behavior they would have to consider leaving Washington, their advisor jobs, and him.

They have lives in New York, friendships with sane and rational people, and they might say, I hoped, that they can't stand with him to the end as he self-immolates. That they couldn't see their own and their children's lives destroyed.

I acknowledge that was wishful thinking. And so here we are. He has had one of his worse weeks--he has inflamed the situation with the North Koreans and we are close to a cataclysmic war, he has ignored Puerto Rico's desperate plight (it will be almost another week before he visits the devastated island), and for the past six days he has been obsessed with the National Football League, tweeting at least 20 times about his outrage that some players in protest against persistent racism have been refusing to stand for the National Anthem. And of course the Mueller investigation ticks closer and closer to him.

So, Ivanka and Jared have slipped from sight. Who can blame them.

July 12, 2107--Smoking Cannon

Some wag said, "It's not a smoking gun, it's a smoking cannon."

He was talking, of course, about the most recent bombshell about Donald Junior's dealings with the Russians. His pathetic attempt to give his daddy a present--the presidency.

Present delivered, but at what an ultimate cost.

Anyone with the last name Trump (or Kushner) needs more than a squadron of lawyers--he needs medication and a get-out-of-jail-free-card.

I'm not sure any of that will help.

Yesterday, when Little Donny was forced to release his e-mail stream about the meeting in June at the Trump Tower, no less, regarding a deal to secure Russian help in getting "dirt" about Hillary ("I love it!" Junior chirped), as of yesterday, a week short of the six-month anniversary of the Trump presidency, was the official beginning of the end of the Don's reign.

The Don is not an inappropriate moniker for him as Trump is more the boss of a political crime family than a credible commander in chief.

What to them is most worrisome (and if you have been following my scribbling on the subject I have said this many times) is the drip, drip, drip fear. In this case that Paul Manafort, who at the time of the meeting was still Trump's campaign manager, Manafort, the playmaker in the dirty dealmaking, who was at the meeting and I'm sure others equally damaging which will soon come to the light of day, will throw Donald Junior and Jared under the bus rather than spend the rest of his adult life in the slammer, while the two boys, tempted like Oedipus to blow the whistle and worse on their father/father-in-law, will have to suck it up and get ready for incarceration.

Unless Daddy pardons them, which I predict he will do within a year as he moves toward resigning.

To see how this is playing in TrumpLand I spent a lot of time last night, late last night, tuned in to talk radio, particularly Red Eye Radio, where the two hosts did their best to chuckle their way through the damning news, making as light of it as possible. To laugh it off, it seemed, was their idea of the best way to trivialize it and make it go away.

But since even they knew that wouldn't work, they turned to the Rush Limbaugh talking-points-of-the-day memo--if all else fails, blame Hillary.

So, I heard a lot again about her server, her e-mails, her own Russian connection (remember the uranium business?), and of course, the chart-topper, Benghazi. Resurrecting Benghazi more than anything else tells you how desperate they are.

As I said, drip, drip, drip.

June 15, 2017--Jeff Sessions Takes the 5th

Well, not exactly. He didn't take the literal 5th Amendment against self-incrimination, but, for all intents and purposes, during his testimony in the Senate on Tuesday, he did a version of that.

When pressed by Democratic members of the Intelligence Committee to respond to questions about any conversations he may have had with President Trump about Russian involvement in the 2016 presidential election, he said that to respond to private conversations with the president would for him, as Attorney General, be "inappropriate."

In effect, he assigned "executive privilege" to himself without calling it that.

This in itself was inappropriate as it is only the president who can claim executive privilege. And, as in the past, if a president does that--Trump thus far hasn't--the Supreme Court has ruled that it is not mentioned in the Constitution and is not an absolute power of the presidency. It does come close to that when national security is at stake. But it cannot be casually invoked when there is a criminal investigation underway. This was a key ruling during Watergate when Nixon resisted turning over his taped conversations to the special prosecutor.

With presumptuousness, the Attorney General, acknowledging that only presidents can invoke executive privilege, also said that he is "protecting the right of the president to assert it if he chooses." He's protecting the president's presidential right! That's not just presumptuousness, that's also chutzpah.

A criminal investigation may not be underway (yet) involving the Attorney General or the president; but if Sessions was not going to answer questions about conversations with the president, it is still not for him on his own initiative to assert a form of executive privilege.

Having said that, why am I suggesting that what Sessions did is analogous to taking the 5th?

Because it ended that line of inquiry as invoking the 5th Amendment does when someone who may or may not be the target of a criminal investigation refuses to answer questions that he or she claims might be incriminating.

Moving on from the technical, why then did Sessions refuse to answer questions of this kind?

If he did not have any conversations with the president about Russian involvement in our election, there would be no need to wall off any testimony about conversations that did not take place. One only builds a wall when there is something to contain and protect.

So, when asked if he had any such conversations, rather that saying it is inappropriate for him to talk about them, since they never happened (so he claimed), all he needed to do was say--

"We never had any conversations of this kind."

His not doing so makes one wonder about at least a couple of things--

He may be lying in an effort to protect himself and the president.

If he is attempting to do this he would not be the first Attorney General to do so. Nixon's first AG, John Mitchell, wound up in jail for his various roles in Watergate, from the initiation to the coverup.

Then, Sessions' conversations with President Trump about Russian involvement, if these in fact occurred, likely happened with more than the two of them alone in the Oval Office.

If so, this means, as special counsel Robert Mueller (who Trump already appears to be itching to fire) interrogates Trump campaign aides and current senior White House staff who were active in the campaign and had various levels of involvement with Russia, if one of more of them fears they are going to be prosecuted and if convicted spend years in jail, some, again as with Watergate, would surely look to make a deal with Mueller by throwing those above them in the chain of command under the bus. This would bring prosecutorial scrutiny up the hierarchy, all the way to the president.

As scrutiny works its way upward, just before getting to Trump, it would sweep in Sessions. Thus, Sessions does not want lying to Congress while under oath to be on the list of serious charges he may be facing six or ten months from now. For him, things are already bad enough.

Do I hear drip, drip, drip?

June 5, 2017--To Russia With Love

In case you missed this, here is something I wrote and posted on February 15th. It could be updated but, for me, it is still the essential truth about why Donald Trump is so discombobulated and infuriated by any mention of Russia. Now, even his son-in-law is entangled. 

Could it be that soon Donald . . .

In New York City, at the elevator yesterday morning we ran into a neighbor, Jeff, who we hadn't seen for some time. He was wearing a big button that proclaimed, "New Yorkers Love Muslims."

I tried to restrain myself but passed him a skeptical look.

"I get that look all the time," he laughed in his usual light-spirited way, "But most people agree when I tell them where all this is headed." I knew what he meant by this.

"Yes?"

"All roads lead to Moscow."

He has a tendency to be enigmatic and though he preferred his utterings to just hang in the air, in spite of that, I asked, "Say a little more."

He shared his most enigmatic smile and said as he stepped into the elevator, "Think about it. It will be obvious once you do so."

"What do you think he means?" back in our apartment I asked Rona.

"He's very political and maybe he's referring to the Michael Flynn situation. You know, how Trump's head of the NSC was taking on the phone to the Russian ambassador before the Inauguration about who-knows-what."

"I suspect nothing good. And it would make some sense of Jeff's Moscow reference. But knowing Jeff, I suspect there's more to it than that."

"It appears that what Flynn did was pretty bad. Apparently the FBI interviewed him about this just a day after the Inauguration. Clearly they had been tracking these phone calls during the transition if not sooner. Probably have transcripts."

"And told the Trump transition team that the nature of the calls were such to suggest that Flynn might be a blackmail target."

"This is all so unbelievable," Rona said, "We're not even a month into the Trump presidency and already we've had a NSC head fired, an FBI investigation apparently still ongoing, other members of the Trump inner circle battling for primacy and his attention, but still I am wondering about Jeff's cryptical words. In the past, though he can be a little strange, he turns out to be right more often than not."

"What may really be going on here, and could explain among other things why Trump appeared to know about the Flynn phone calls at least three weeks ago he seemingly sat on the information until more about the situation began to leak out from the media. Then, he finally acted."

"Well, there's one explanation, one more ominous thing that could help unpack that Jeff may be thinking."

"Go on."

"That the real explanation, the real bottom line is that this is not primarily about Flynn and the Russians. Maybe it's about . . ."

I interrupted, "Are you saying maybe this goes higher within the new administration?"

"That's what I'm thinking and saying."

"I think I'm following you."

"Remember that famous 27-page memorandum that was appended to one of the early intelligence briefings Trump received? About alleged accusations that Trump seriously misbehaved when he was in Moscow for the 2013 Miss Universe Pageant? About him with prostitutes among other things? And as a result the Russians have the goods on him. That he's the one subject to blackmail. Trump."

"That's my surmise," Rona said, "It could explain Trump's ignoring the information about Flynn. Hoping it would blow over and whatever the Russians have about Trump himself would fade away."

"And hasn't it been reliably reported recently that though at first what's in the BuzzFeed leaked dossier could not be verified and was thought to be raw information gathering, that now some close to the ongoing FBI investigation are saying that some or even much of it is looking more-and-more credible."

"If that turns out to be true, the road to Moscow Jeff mentioned could be the road that Trump is on. Flynn then may turn out to be a minor player. Maybe even a witness. The real catch would be Trump. If that were to happen, it would be the biggest scandal in presidential history. Watergate, Monica Lewinsky, and JFK and his mistresses would turn out to be footnotes in any books about White House miscreants."

"I can't believe we're saying these things," I said.

"And it may turn out that Jeff's not so crazy."

May 31, 2017--Jack: Be Careful What You Wish For

"Sneaking around again?"

It was Jack who spotted us in Hanniford's parking lot.

"What? We're just here to pick up a few groceries."

"And, I see, a newspaper. I assume your New York Times."

I had it under my arm and pressed it closer to me as if to protect it from him. "Let me have a look. What's this morning's headline, as if I didn't know?" He reached for it and I reflexively backed away. But he managed to grab hold of the paper and extracted it from where I had been attempting to hide it.

He read, "'Inquiries Turn to Why Kushner Met a Putin Ally.' So predictable."

"So true," I said, feeling pounced upon, "I mean about Kushner. What was he . . ."

Jack cut me off, "That's this week's drumbeat--the mainstream media's push to get rid of the son-in-law. To get him to resign and go back in disgrace to New York."

"I don't know about . . ."

"That's what's going on. Haven't you been listening to Morning Joe and all the other MSNBC harpies? And CNN? And then of course the Washington Post? It's all Jared-all-the-time."

"OK, so tell me what he was doing talking to that Russian banker? He's an intimate of Putin's and is on our sanctions list. And this meeting or conversation was before Trump was inaugurated. You think that's not a problem?"

"Maybe not. You think it's a bad idea for us to have a private channel for conversations with the Russians, and especially Putin?"

"Again, you're missing the point. We have one government at a time and this was going on while Obama was still the president. Then there is the issue of Trump and Kushner doing business with this banker, Sergey Gorkov. You're OK with them wheeling and dealing with each other?"

"First of all, this is speculation. No one knows if there were business dealings. And if there were, so what? What would be wrong with that? It was before Trump was sworn in."

"Because, as I said, Gorkov's on the sanctions list which means he's dirty. You want our president and his senior advisor son-in-law doing business with someone like that? With him maybe having something on them that can be used for blackmail?"

"It sounds to me like you've been listening again to your late night talk radio. The programs that are devoted to conspiracy theories."

I said nothing to that but I had been, though all the conspiracies being discussed were right wing ones. "Maybe we'll find out they lied. Trump and Kushner."

"So," Jack said, "how about waiting until then to condemn them and drag them through the mud?"

"The whole business with Russia, and I mean more than business, stinks to the high heavens. There are too many Russian connections between Trump's people and Putin and his henchmen."

"I get it. You want to bring Trump down and think the best way to do that is by demolishing all the people close to him."

Involuntarily, I nodded, "This is the way Nixon was exposed and had to resign."

"So, that's your plan--to get Trump to resign by trashing the reputations of his closest advisors?"

That was essentially true but I did not want to acknowledge that to Jack.

"As the saying goes, 'Be careful what you wish for.' Sometimes it works out that you get what you want and that in turn presents an even bigger problem."

"Go on."

"OK. Like with Nixon, to get Trump you start out be squeezing underlings. For Nixon it was Ehrlichman and Halderman; for Trump Flynn and Manafort. Then you get Kushner in the net and after that Trump himself." He looked at me for further confirmation. "To you and your friends that sound good, right?" I stopped nodding. "So, let me ask you this." He didn't wait for a response, "Kushner and, and this is big, Ivanka both resign and move back to New York. That's the hope?"

"That wouldn't be the worst thing. This business of the two of them right next to the Oval Office gives me the creeps."

"And tell me what the Trump presidency would look like with the two of them run out of town."

I hadn't thought much about that.

"You want him there all alone without his wife--who I predict will say in New York and only show up for glitzy foreign trips and state dinners--and without the two people in the world closest to him and who are the only ones who have a chance of keeping him from doing crazy things? Because, left to his own devices, even I, who still supports him, think he has the capacity to do crazy, even dangerous things."

"This sounds worrisome. That it's only Jared and Ivanka who are keeping him from blowing up the world?"

After a moment, Jack, leaned closer to us and softly said, "That's what I think."

"Then we're cooked," I sighed. This was not what I was wanting to talk about in Hanniford's parking lot on a beautiful Tuesday morning.

"Nepotism is not my favorite thing," Jack said, "But in this case maybe . . ."

A car backing out almost ran into us.

"Enough," I said. "I think I won't read today's paper. Maybe just the sports."

May 10, 2017--Firing James Comey

Many are saying that Donald Trump's firing of FBI director James Comey smacks of Watergate. We had the Saturday Night Massacre then and the Tuesday Night Massacre last night.

This comparison doesn't sound like a stretch to me. 

In fact, back on March 21st I posted a blog about where they would lead if one were to connect all the dots about how Trump's men were directly involved in the Russian hacking of the presidential election and how this subversion of our election is much, much worse than Watergate.

Anyone wondering why Trump fired Comey, claiming that he did so because of how Comey failed to indict Hillary Clinton, is capable of believing most anything. The truth is much simpler than that. And chilling. 

So below is my posting from March.

Here's what happened and it's pretty obvious.

Admittedly this is speculation but since it explains most of Donald Trump's behavior regarding Russia's tampering in our election, let me air it out--

Last spring when it was obvious Donald Trump would win the nomination and then that summer, after securing it, one or more members of Trump's entourage with on-going Russian connections (fierce supporter General Michael Flynn and/or campaign chairman Paul Manafort) told candidate Trump that their Russian connections, or handlers, indicated that they had the capacity to hack into Hillary Clinton's campaign and in that way dig up enough dirt to help the underdog, Donald Trump, win the election.

As someone who loves winning above all else, Trump with a nod and a wink gave them the go-ahead.

The rest of the election is history.

All the while, the FBI or NSA, as part of their routine work, were tapping into the Russian ambassador's and other Russian officials' electronic communications.

In the process, they stumbled on Flynn's and Manafort's machinations and began a deeper investigation into their work with Russia, including their involvement in the Clinton sabotage effort.

So here's the big problem--

If a version of this is true, the connected dots lead directly back to Donald J.Trump.

Trump of course knows the full extent of this, especially his own direct involvement, and thus the frantic attempt to divert attention from this festering situation and out of desperation turn the heat on his predecessor, Barack Obama, accusing him of "wiretapping" Trump Tower.

Here's how this will unfold--

Flynn or Manafort, eventually facing 20 years in prison, will make a James McCord, Watergate-like deal with the prosecutors and throw President Trump under the bus.

That is unless Trump has already been pardoned by his successor, President Mike Pence.

Left to Right--Manafort, Trump, Flynn

April 7, 2017--Trump at War

A few quick observations--

The missile strike that President Trump ordered last night had at least four purposes:

(1) To punish the Assad regime for its poison gas attack on Syrian civilians. This happened on the 100th anniversary of the beginning of  our involvement in World War I where chemical weapons were for the first time widely used.

(2) To try to get the Russian Connection monkey off Trump's back. He bombed Russia's only real ally in the region in part to demonstrate he was not Putin's puppet.

(3) To demonstrate to the Chinese leadership that we are not to be messed with. Is it just a coincidence that Trump ordered the missile strike on the very day he was hosting the Chinese president? President Xi had a front row seat to observe an emboldened Trump in action. Trump was signaling that if you don't take the lead in containing North Korea, he will.

(4) Perhaps most important to Trump, this was to boost his approval ratings. They have been hovering in the mid 30s. Expect to see a 10 point jump by the weekend. Americans always rally around their president when he takes military action. But, as in the past, those numbers head quickly south after things calm down if nothing positive is happening. Just ask George H.W. Bush.

(5) And, of course by bombing Syria he distanced himself from President Obama who famously drew a red line in the sand but then backed away from enforcing it. He can now claim to be muy macho.

April 7, 2017--Congressional Dye Job

There was something familiar looking about Adam Schiff yesterday morning during his appearance on Morning Joe.

As the ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee he's in high demand these days by the media since the Intel Committee is one of two congressional committees investigating the Trump administration's various Russian involvements.

Though their work is supposed to be confidential, since national security may be at stake, he and his fellow committee members, especially the chairman, Devin Nunes have not been shy about appearing on TV and in some cases inappropriately even thinking out loud that they wouldn't be "surprised" if at the end of the day some people who are apparently involved in dealing less than legitimately with Putin and his people will wind up in jail.

2020 presidential candidate  and committee member Joaquin Castro said as much earlier this week. He got lots of headlines for that as did a number of other Democrats who chimed in. Half the Dems on the committees it seems are also thinking about running for president in four years.

I peered intently at Schiff to see what might have triggered my curiosity about the way he looked. Was it that he reminded me of my Uncle Ben or Mr. Gatti, my 5th grade teacher?

I tried squinting to see if would help.

Then there was the first of the morning's breaking news--under pressure to step aside because of his behaving as a Trump apologist, eager to do his bidding, rather than a more-or-less impartial investigator, Nunes "temporarily"suspending his Russian Connection involvement.

Nunes' picture popped up on the screen.

"That's it!" I said to Rona, who had no idea why I was so excited. "They have the same hair!"

"The same what?"

"Hair. Schiff and Nunes. Look." I pointed at the TV, "Not the same hair but the same color. I mean the same dye job. Isn't that amazing?"

"I'm beginning to be concerned about you," Rona said. "Can we watch something fluffy? I've already had my daily fill of this and I'm worried about you. You're in danger of going off the deep end over Trump and his people. Is there a MASH or Seinfeld rerun to distract us?"

"I think I know why they have the same hair color," I said.

"You can tell me on one condition."

"What's that?"

"That after you do we watch an episode of Married With Children. I hate that show but it always gives you a few laughs, which you desperately need. In fact, the next time you go to see Dr. Heller I want you to talk with him about this."

"This? You mean their hair?"

"No, your obsession with everything having to do with Trump. Maybe there's some medication he can prescribe."

Ignoring that, I asked, "Is this just a coincidence? The both of them having the same color dye? What are the odds of that?

"I wouldn't know and I don't care."

"I don't care but I'm sure I know."

"Lord help me."

"They go to the same barber. And I bet it's the House barber."

"The House barber? The House of Representatives has a barber?"

"More than that. A barber shop and a hair salon for female members. I saw them one time when a congressman I was working with walked me around the Capital and showed me that and their gym and swimming pool and sauna and of course the cafeteria and restaurant. Where things are either free or very low cost."

"So your theory is that Nunes and Schiff go to that barber rather than ones in the districts?"

"Exactly. I can hear them telling the barber 'Give me a Nunes or a Schiff.'"

"Like people used to ask for an Elvis or Farrah." Rona was getting into it.

"I wonder what else our representatives are getting as perks. I know they get a minimum of $174,000 in salary and $250,000 a year for office and travel expenses which means that they effectively fly for free."

"And don't forget the free parking at Reagan Airport. Right by the terminals."

"And pensions that are way beyond what ordinary employees or executives get. I looked that up the other day. After 20 years in office they get $59,000 a year. More than twice what they'd get or a typical retiree would get from Social Security."

"This is making me sick to my stomach," Rona said.

"Congress meets only part of the year and so members get 239 days a year off. They work on many of those days back home, but really."

"Can we change the channel?" Rona pleaded with me.

"Here's my favorite thing--they get platinum health care of course, much of the cost of which is subsidized by, you'll never guess, Obamacare. I'm sure when they repeal and replace it they won't be taking away that subsidy."

"Is it any wonder people who are struggling to get by are made crazy by this?"

"At least if Congress did its job. But one more thing," I said.

"As long as it's the last thing."

"I promise. But back to the hair business. Don't you think that if they didn't have their own hair place in the Capital they would benefit by going to barbershops in their home districts? Barber shops and beauty parlors are great places to stay in touch with constituents. Better than town hall meetings where everyone is screaming and yelling."

"Joaquin Castro was right--they need to be put in jail."

April 3, 2017--Jack: "Long Time No Speak"

"Happy April Fools' Day," it was Jack a friend from Maine, "Long time no speak." I girded myself for a prank.

"These days," I said, "every day feels like April fools Day." I hadn't heard from him in a few weeks. "I assume you haven't been calling because your boy is making such a mess of the presidency and you're embarrassed about having voted for him."

"It's your people who are causing all the trouble."

"My people?"

"You know, the Democrats, the media, the socialists."

"Are you confusing socialists with Russians? Because if you are that's one thing we might be able to agree about--how the Trump people were in cahoots with the Russians who helped undermine Hillary Clinton's campaign."

"All three. The Democrats and mainstream media are making a big deal, with no evidence, about alleged Russian involvement in our election. Trump won fair and square. He didn't need any outside help."

"Didn't you listen to FBI director Comey when he said that the Russians were involved? He didn't hint about the possibilities but asserted that in no uncertain terms."

"He should talk. He's the one who undermined the Clinton campaign with his obsessing about her emails. Is he also working for the Russians?"

"These days anything's possible." Again I said, "Every day's April Fools' Day."

"If you're so sure Trump is making a mess . . ."

"Worse than a mess."

"If that's what you think why are his poll numbers going up?"

"What?" I was incredulous. "I know we live in a time when there are no longer any facts, but he's dropped to the low 30s."

"Forty-two percent in the latest poll."

"Have you been drinking because the last numbers I saw are from Gallop and they have him at 35 and dropping. By about a point a week."

"Check out the NBC News Poll."

"You mean the 'Survey Monkey Poll'?"

"If they have him at 42 percent approval, that's the one. But why it's called a monkey poll is beyond me. Everything's crazy these days."

"It's actually a very hip, relatively new poll that is done almost all on line. With so many people without wired phones they've been trying to measure opinions from people who are wirelessly on line all the time."

"Which would suggest that Trump is doing better with unwired young people. Thirty-five percent with Gallop and 42 with the Monkey."

"I'll have to do some checking."

"While you do find out what any of this has to do with monkeys."

"All the other polls have Trump's favorabilites plunging. And while we've been talking I looked up the poll you mentioned--the NBC Survey Monkey--and they also report his numbers are dropping. It's true they have him at 42 percent but he was two-to-four points higher the past week or so. The point is that as he fails to get anything through Congress and we learn more-and-more about his people colluding with the Russians his support is eroding."

"But he's getting a lot done that he promised to do."

"Really? Give me some examples."

"On immigration and regulations for openers."

"You mean his executive orders?"

"Those."

"Well, one has been ruled unconstitutional twice by federal courts and I haven't seen any specific regulations that have been removed. Just generalities. All he wants is to have fancy signing ceremonies in the Oval Office on live TV. Speaking of the Oval Office, have you noticed it looks as if he hasn't moved in yet? The book shelves are basically empty--he's not really a reader--and the only picture on the credenza behind his desk is of father Fred. No Melania, no children or grandchildren, no ex-wives Ivana or Marla Maples."

"Huh?"

"OK, about that I'm kidding. April Fool! But very revealing was the report, I think from Joe Scarborough, about his saying to his senior staff, 'I don't care what's in the bills. What I want are signing ceremonies.' Is this what we expect of our president?"

"That's what I mean by the mainstream press--they, like you, make things up."

"Well, here's something that's not made up--his tweets about retaliating against members of the Freedom Caucus in the House who he thinks killed Paul Ryan's and his healthcare bill."

Freedom Caucus Members

"They did kill it. And what's wrong with his calling them out for it?"

"Do you know what's in that bill?" All I heard was static. "Among other things twenty-four million people losing their coverage. That means a lot more prematurely dead people. You're all right with that?"

"I thought we were talking about the politics, not the bill."

"I can understand why you'd prefer that. But, OK, that was politically dumb. To attack them. He also blamed the Dems, as he referred to them. He bragged about how in 2018 he'll campaign against them and the Freedom Caucus. By then whoever's opposing them won't want him campaigning for them since his approval rating will be down in the 20s."

"About this we really disagree. He's approaching the bottom of his support right now. At the worst he'll end up at 30-35 percent. That's his floor."

"You call that good?" I asked, "That's a disaster for a president. That would mean losing control of both houses in 2018 and assure that nothing gets legislated for at least two years."

"Not necessarily. His people are still with him. Passionately so. Have you heard any of them interviewed? They think the Russian stuff is not important, a made-up distraction to undermine him. What's important to them are jobs, protection from immigrants, hope for their children, and a strong America."

"You think," I asked, "after what he said that any Freedom Caucus people or Democrats will work with him? They're on TV right now saying 'No way.' Even making fun of him. Mocking him. After how many, 70 days or so in office, he's becoming a lame duck. Irrelevant."

"We'll see how relevant he'll be after the Koreans, the North Koreans attack Japan or one of our bases out there. With missiles."

"This is my worst nightmare about him. Worse than anything that can happen on April Fools' Day."

March 30, 2017--What's Up With Devin Nunes?

An otherwise nondescript congressman from the scorching Central Valley in California, Devin Nunes is now perhaps the best known of his 434 colleagues.

He of course is the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, a plum assignment for someone without any intelligence work on his resumé or much political savvy. Running the committee until now he played the game in the traditional bipartisan way operating out of the spotlight and rarely interviewed by the cable news channels. Your basic congressional hack.

Then something snapped.

He's on TV all the time, mostly racing through the House of Representatives fending off reporters hanging out in what appears to be Congress' underground boiler room, junior media types hungry for any snippet from him about his midnight sleuthing on "the White House grounds," his one-on-one meeting with President Trump, his unwillingness to share with committee members new information about the administration's alleged Russian Connection, or why without consulting other committee members he has suspended routine meetings and hearings. In effect shutting down the committee.

No one seems to have a handle on what's going on with him and why he either went James-Bond-style rogue or finds himself overwhelmed by the sudden scope and importance of his work.

In an effort to figure things out, I trotted out my trusty Ockham's Razor to see if that can bring insight to this mess of a situation.

Ockham would say there are at least three explanations for all the seemingly contradictory behavior--

(1) Nunes is way over his head and his underlying incompetence is being exposed. What he up to is not well thought out or strategic.
(2) As an early supporter of Donald Trump's he is striving to protect his leader from being harmed by whatever his committee might unearth.
(3) As a member of the Trump transition team, bedazzled by exposure to the glittery Trump life style and, wanting more of it, he is willing to sacrifice his reputation in order to become a member of the inner circle.
(4) All of the above.

I am inclined to say "all of the above." But with some new spin from what has already been reported and speculated about.

Invoking Ockham here's what I think is going on--

Nunes was born and raised in Tulare right in the middle of the San Joaquin Valley, a town of about 60,000, nearly 60 percent of them Hispanic farm workers. His father owned a modest cattle ranch and young Devin early on thought he would become the third generation of Nuneses to own and run it. So he went to the local community college and studied agriculture.

For someone even half smart--and he is at least that--Tulare was a good place to get away from. Almost 200 miles distant from both LA and San Francisco, he opted to stay close to home and seek ways to escape. After some local politicking he managed to get elected to Congress in 2003 and has been reelected six times, most recently, unopposed.

He was spotted by Speaker John Boehner as an effective fundraiser and was rewarded by being named chair of the Intelligence Committee. When Paul Ryan took over from the deposed Boehner he reappointed him, in part, I suspect, thinking Nunes is Hispanic. And since there aren't a lot of Latinos among the Republican congressional delegation, there he still sits and presides. That is, when the committee meets.

Nunes is in fact of Portuguese dissent, but for the GOP, this is close enough.

Then there was the invitation to join the transition team and with that came his exposure to the Russian Connection explosion.

Can you imagine what it must have been like for someone like Nunes from Tulare to be welcomed into Trump's gilded world?

Walls literally of gold; a wife and daughter looking like Melania and Ivanka; the opportunity to talk with the legendary Midas about potential cabinet appointments; and, closer to the current situation, to assist son-in-law Jared in talking with dozens of foreign leaders calling into Trump Tower to congratulate the Big Guy and to begin to seek diplomatic deals.

These apparently were Nunes' transition assignments. Heady work for someone who had never before been in any spotlight or seen the lights of Broadway.

Soon thereafter he and we learned from FBI director James Comey that there is an on-going investigation about potentially improper relationships between Trump associates, Russian oligarchs and diplomats, and Russian intelligence officers.

He and we also learned that there may have been collusion between some Trump associates and Russians who were busy hacking into the Clinton campaign in a effort to tip the election to Trump.

But as chair of the Intelligence Committee, Nunes likely learned a lot more than this barest of outlines about the investigations that are underway. He likely knows the unmasked names of those Trump associates who were picked up incidentally during FBI surveillance; he may have seen that Trump himself is a target; and, most perilous from Nunes' perspective, he may have learned that his own name appears in some of these investigative intercepts.

He, after all, might have spoken with people from Eastern Europe and, who knows, if he was used by Trump people as a dupe, even to a Russian or two. Maybe even a spy.

To get him implicated this way would assure he wouldn't be eager as Intelligence Committee chair to look too closely into what was really going on with and among Trump and his people. A compromised Nunes could provide some insurance or cover for implicated Trump operatives.

In the aggregate, especially his own potential involvement in things he shouldn't have been exposed to could easily explain his erratic and panicky-seeming behavior.

Too conspiratorial minded? Perhaps.

But who would have thought the Russians were up to sabotaging Hillary Clinton's campaign and who would have imagined that Trump's campaign manager was on a key oligarch's payroll to the tune of $10 million a year?

At the moment, I like Ockham's answer.