July 23, 2020--Trump's War

Many on the left--me included--have assumed that close to Election Day, if he found himself slipping badly in the polls, a desperate Trump would start a war of distraction. 

Not a war with China or Russia or even Iran, but one of Reagan size--remember Grenada? A wag-the-dog sort of war. Just sufficient for Trump to rally enough voters to the cause to reelect him.

We may now be at that moment. Trump is losing to Biden among virtually all demographic subgroups and in all six key swing states. Trump is flailing around, having lost more than a full step.

His war may turn out to be one against America. Against the cities of America. Against cities with Democratic mayors. Against cities with large African-American populations.

Cities such as Portland, Oregon. Soon against Detroit and Philadelphia and Chicago and New York.

He calls it Operation Legend. I call it treason.

May 24, 2019--Jack: Youngstown, Ohio

We were having a quiet morning at the diner when the door burst open and there, framed in it, grinning ear-to-ear, making an entrance was Jack. 

"Am I ever glad to see you," he bellowed.

I stole a glance at Rona, thinking, just what I needed. Now my morning is complete. 

"Yessiree. My two favorite Commies." He liked that and rolled with laughter. "But I still love you guys. Why, I do not know. But I do."

"I hesitate to ask," I finally said, "I know I'll regret it, but what's got you all jazzed up?"

"How you Dems are doing it again." Rona signaled for a heater of decaf and perhaps the check. She's had it with early morning political talk.

I said, "Doing what again?" Rona glared at me.

"Let me read it to you. From your New York Times. I have it with me. To quote it directly. From the paper of record. That's what you call it, right? I've been carrying this around for almost a week, hoping to run into you two."

He had plopped down on the banquette next to Rona and was searching for whatever it was in his pockets.

"I got it. I got it." He waved what looked like a newspaper clipping. "It's about what's going on in Youngstown. Ohio. Right in the heart of the Rust Belt. In Trump Country."

"You mean Biden Country," Rona said under her breath.

"That's a good one," Jack said. "It's never going to be Biden Country as long as he goes around denying our economy is threatened by China. Let me read something to you. From the Times." He squinted at the clipping. "I want to get this right so I quote--'On the campaign trail Mr. Biden has downplayed China's global economic threat. "China is going to eat our lunch? Come on man. They're not competition for us.'"

Jack made a face as if he was offended, "Saying these things in Ohio which has lost not just jobs to China but whole industries is crazy. He may in some ways be right, but politically this is a disaster. He expects to carry that state? Dream on. It could turn out to be his 'deplorables' moment. Remember that? I can see what he said featured in Republican TV ads."

I said, "It wasn't a politically smart way to put it. I'll grant you that. But the polls show Biden leading his Democratic rivals as well as Trump in Ohio and the other swing states."

"As I said, dream on. Let me read you what an Ohio Democratic strategist said before, out of frustration, resigning his position--

"My party has lost its voice to speak to people that shower after work and not before work. [I love that.] All we're saying is that Trump refuses to turn over his tax returns. He's saying, 'I'm fighting China to get you better jobs.' Trump's people don't care about his taxes--they just don't."

"But they care," I said, "about all the jobs that have been lost in Ohio. Including very recently, in nearby Lordstown. General Motors shut down its assembly plant and 1,600 good jobs were wiped out. On Trump's watch, after all his promises to save jobs and bring back manufacturing."

"OK but listen to what Democratic congressman Tim Ryan, who incidentally is running for president and represents Lordstown, had to say. Again from your favorite newspaper--"

Jack read, "The president is punching China in the face while the leading candidate on our side is saying China is not even an issue. If we go into the election with that as our message we'll get beat again."

I said, "As you pointed out, Ryan's running for the Democratic nomination and he is trying here to bring Biden down. To clear a path for himself."

"OK," Jack said, "So let me tell you what the vice president of the United Auto Workers union had to say. He's not running for the presidency by the way. Again, I'm reading from the Times."

With a hint of attitude, Rona said, "Glad to see you weaned yourself from Fox News."

Jack let that pass and read--

"The UAW vice president said--'Very few union members are abandoning the president even after the plant that made the Chevy Cruze laid off thousands of workers in three waves after Trump's election. I don't think these Trump people are going to flip back, even for Joe Biden, who has a lot of support in this area. I think they're dug in on Trump. Whatever happens, they're going to go down with the ship with him.'"

"Now finally that's something I can drink to," Rona said, raising her coffee mug, "Here's to Trump and his people together on a sinking ship." 

Trump Rally In Youngstown

May 1, 2019--Black Women

How sadly ironic that the spouse of our first black president and the first women to secure the nomination of a major political party lost the election because black women did not turn out in traditional numbers to vote for her.

The "her," of course, is Hillary Clinton and the "first back president," designated as such by Toni Morrison, is Bill Clinton.

So, if Joe Biden is to have a chance to win, especially in the hotly contested Electoral-College-rich Midwestern states--Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan--he needs to do better with black women.

Initially in the primaries and then, if he is nominated, in the general election.

It is very early to make responsible predictions but since this is a critical issue, following the lead of the New York Times, which published an article Monday about how well Biden might do with African-American voters in these swing states, here are a few observations--

The Times dispatched a reporter to Pennsylvania, where there are many minorities, to get a sense of how Biden is faring with black voters.

Supported by recent polling data, it seems quite well.

At Bobbie's Coffee & Books in Germantown, when talk turned to politics, patrons said that Biden was either at or near the top of their list, mainly because of his partnership with Obama. 

Clara Walker, a small-business owner, said that Biden would have her vote "just for assisting Barack."

This was a common theme--Biden's support for Obama's agenda and how his presence and assistance contributed significantly to Obama's success.

Kerry Chester, a network engineer, said, "I'm going to be completely honest: I think with the country going the way it is, I think we're kind of safer on the Democratic side going with a white man right now."

Working class white folks said much the same thing--

For example, Kevin Frantz, a retried firefighter, said, "I like his sincerity, his personality, his experience. I think he cares."

No wonder worried Trump sent out a stream of nasty tweets about Biden as he made his way successfully across his home state.

One further thought about Biden's appeal to black voters--

In most work situations African Americans report to white people. But in Obama's White House, white workers, beginning with Biden, reported to a black man--the president.

Biden was known to have had nothing but fondness and respect for Obama and was as loyal a second banana as a vice president has ever been. This has been widely noticed among African Americans and contributes in uncountable ways to his rapport with the former president and through that relationship to black voters.

We will learn more as the campaigns develop, but at this early stage it appears that Biden will not have a Hillary problem.

January 22, 2018--The March

Saturday's Women's March was again extraordinary. Hundreds of thousands of largely young people, mainly women, turned out in the United States and around the world in all kinds of weather.

Not intentionally, Rona and I got swept into the periphery of it in New York City. We were in the vicinity of Times Square for another purpose and found ourselves . . . marching.

It was a powerful, emotional experience. I know that there has been some backbiting among the organizers who planned and carried out last year's version, held the day after Donald Trump's inauguration-- the size of that march eclipsing the much smaller crowd that showed up for his swearing in, nasty speech, and his still ongoing smarting that his inaugural turnout was by far the largest in history--but no matter. 

It was remarkable, amazing. So much energy, a palpable feeling of empowerment, which of course is the real goal of these marches--women taking more control of their political lives and destiny. 

Speaker after speaker took note of the fact that thousands of women nationwide, at all levels, are signing up to run for office. This suggests that November may be shaping up to be an historical comeuppance for Trump and his cult of followers. 

Say goodbye, Republicans, to your current majority in the House and I suspect the Senate. That would bring about a new day. That would truly be what is most historic about the current situation--new voters and newly activated citizens taking back their country. In perfect irony, they, we will make America great again. 

But besid the possibility that we will be engaged in a major war in Korea come November which will cause many Americans to rally to a president that they otherwise despise, there is another danger--

With the march itself. 

Rather an unanticipated consequence from its very nature--that it is a women's march. 

Though men are welcome to participate, the vast majority of those who marched were women.

If this becomes the electoral face of those who oppose Trump, with Hollywood stars pushing their way into the spotlight, there is the danger of a backlash among moderate, politically independent men who may come to feel excluded by the movement that the march represents. 

These men are needed as part of the coalition that has the potential in November, for all intents and purposes, to end the Trump presidency. To turn him into an instant lame duck. Domestically at least--powerless. 

These are some of the same men, not Trump acolytes, who could not bring themselves to pull the lever and vote for Hillary Clinton. Next time around, we cannot let this happen. They have to feel welcomed, comfortable being lead by women and willing to vote for women for Congress as well as at the state and municipal levels.

We have to write off Trump's 35-40 percent. They are the ones who would support him even if he murdered someone on Fifth Avenue, as he said with insight during the campaign. But to win and thereby rescue ourselves we need the active support of the persuadables. Some of them the old Reagan Democrats. Or their descendants. There are still plenty of them who are swing voters who live in swing states.

So what to do?

For the next march attention should be paid to the sensitivities and vulnerabilities of these men who must become political allies. In the next march they should have some public role to play. The themes to emphasize need to include a portion that are gender neutral--like inequality and our plummeting position in the world. These themes should not be so much about so-called "women's issues." It would be wise to include more that cross genders and are universal.

I understand that these suggestions will not go down well among some or even many, especially coming from a not-quite-dead-yet white male. But if we want to win--and we desperately should--I put these thoughts forward in the spirit of wanting to help.

February 3, 2017--Once More, Jack

Though a number of friends recommended I not answer the phone when Jack calls, when he rang me again the other morning I ignored that advice.

I'm not exactly sure why some of my friends were offering such counsel, but I suspect it's largely because what Jack has been saying about me and my fellow Democrats rings truer than any of us would like--that we are in large part the source of our own political problems. That we didn't do enough to help Hillary Clinton get elected. That we took her victory for granted and spent more time talking about the election than becoming directly involved.

Thus far only one person I heard from, "Gala Girl," appears to have done well on Jack's parlor game challenge, Who Do You Know? She claimed to have friends from all of Jack's categories, except that she doesn't know any coal miners!

All the other readers and friends who either called or wrote to me confessed that for the most part they knew as friends very few plumbers, policemen, or waitresses. Some who disagreed with Jack about our being out-of-touch with Americans who elected Donald Trump, had no problem with the fact that they didn't know anyone currently serving in the military or working as a lab technician. And thus, like them, I should ignore Jack's jibes.

"Things are bad enough without us beating ourselves up about the results of the election," one said.

Jack on the other hand said, "I see you have a new obsession."

"How so?"

"With all the things going on this is what you're paying attention to?"

"What might that this be?" From his attitude I was already beginning to regret that I didn't let his call go to voice mail.

"With all that's going on from the immigration ban to Trump's on-going obsession about how many popular votes Hillary secured, you keep coming back to railing about congressional Democrats gathering the other night on the steps of the Supreme Court."

"I'm all in favor of activism of all kinds. In fact, we need more and more of it right now to show Trump that there will be political consequences for his words and deeds. Really, he needed to alienate the Australians? One of our loyalist allies?"

"I agree. But what seems to be sticking in your craw is the fact that that geriatric group of your congresspeople opted to sing This Land Is Your Land. What's with that?"

"It underlined for me how impotent and out of touch my party leaders are. Nancy Pelosi who can't sing is tottering around on her last legs and Chuck Schumer looks like he's ready for Weight Watchers or needs to check into a care facility. These are the people who are going to lead the opposition and help elect Democrats two years from now? I don't think so."

"I watch some MSNBC," Jack said. "That might surprise you, but I want to check out what Rachael is up to and your version of Bill O'Reilly, loud-mouth Chris Mathews. I want to listen in on what the left-wing opposition is saying and plotting. From my perspective, I'm happy to see not much to win over Trump-type voters. Though at least some of them are recognizing that progressives need to get out into the country to find out what's on voters' minds. You know visit some of those 21-percent counties."

"What are those?"

"Like the ones in Iowa and other swing states that voted for Obama in 2008 and again in 2012, giving him 21 percent margins but then this time around voted equally overwhelmingly, by 21 percent, for Trump. There's a whole lot to learn in those places. And there are quite a few of them.

"If you're looking to start a business, consider setting up a tour company that buses Democrats for overnight visits to these districts. Especially tell them which diners to go to to have breakfast with the locals."

"In some ways we're agreeing. Which brings me back to the other night at the Supreme Court. Not only are our leaders totally out of touch and self-involved, but This Land Is Your Land? This old hippie song? I mean, I like it. But do they think it appeals to millennials and Latinos and the working poor? I don't think so. If anything, they made themselves seem irrelevant and ridiculous."

"On top to that," Jack said, "I noticed that they didn't even know the words. They had to read them from a handout."

 "And meanwhile, back at the White House, Trump was firing people and on the phone talking to the Mexican president, warning him that if the Mexican police don't do a better job of securing the border he might just have to have American troops invade Mexico because there are 'bad hombres' there."