January 28, 2019--Joe: "I Like Republicans"

Writing these as I frequently do in real time, sometimes my words tumble out faster than my brain operates and I wind up embarrassing myself. 

Friday was such an occasion and so I want to apologize and set my version of the record straight.

I wrote a snarky piece about Joe Biden speaking in October to a "Republican-leaning" group in Michigan for which he received a $200,000 fee.

I can make myself live with the fee. Ex-president Ronald Regan raked in an astrological $2.0 million in 1989 dollars for addressing some Japanese group and Michelle and Barack Obama are in the process of becoming wealthy with money flooding to them from Netflix and various book publishers.

In addition to playing golf, with the exception of Jimmy Carter, it's what former presidents do after leaving office.

But what I couldn't abide was Joe Biden's shout out at the event shortly before Election Day to Fred Upton, a Republican congressman who was in a tight reelection battle. With the outcome too close to call, helping Upton win could have upset the Democrat's move to retake control of the House. As it turned out Upton won as did the Dems. But still . . .

In my piece I more than implied that Joe pocketed the 200 grand with the, wink-wink, understanding that he would help Upton, who is a big supporter of cancer research, a subject understandably close to Biden's heart.

I get it, but Biden did overlook the fact that Upton is also a leading and ongoing opponent of the Affordable Care Act, Obamacare, legislation for which Biden helped work through the system by twisting congressional arms. Then, after it passed, at the signing ceremony a hot mic picked up Biden whispering to Obama, "This is a fucking big deal."

But confronted by the Times front-page story, rather than backing down, claiming as politicians almost always do, that he was quoted "out of context," Biden doubled down and wth a light spirit said he has no inclination to "blunt his instinct toward bipartisanship and compromise."

"I like Republicans!" he said, staking out a moderate position as he thinks about running for president in a field already full of very progressive candidates.

He joked, "O.K., well bless me father, for I have sinned."

Upton said that the praise for him was unexpected and that "it was an immense honor."

Since politically I care only about weakening Trump and defeating him in 2020, if this helps Biden win the nomination and then the election, we can deal with other policy issues subsequently.

In the meantime, I apologize for speaking too soon.

October 11, 2018--October Surprises

In election cosmology an October Surprise is a news event deliberately created, timed, or occurring spontaneously that influences the outcome of an election, particularly for the presidency.

With the upcoming midterm elections, since Donald Trump has kidnapped them and made the hundreds of congressional contests all about him--in effect, a referendum on his presidency--by nationalizing these individual races, it would not be unexpected for him to come up with a whopper of an October Surprise. One that would underscore what he claims to be his achievements (tax cuts, renegotiating NAFTA, withdrawing from the Iran deal, a strong job market) a surprise designed to motivate his base to vote for candidates he supports. Essentially, any and all Republicans running for office.

Recent examples of October Surprises include leaking the news in 2000, when George W. Bush was locked in a tight contest with Al Gore, that some years earlier Bush had been cited in Maine for driving while under the influence.

Four years later, to undermine Bush's reelection chances, Osama bin Laden released a videotape in which he took credit for the 9/11 terrorist attack in the hope that this would remind voters of Bush's failures.

The 2008 stock market crash weakened John McCain's chances in his race against Barack Obama. Republicans in general were blamed and the onset of the Great Recession boosted the chances of all Democrats, especially Obama's. So much so that the Democrats took control of both houses of Congress.

And then most recently, in 2016, it is generally agreed that FBI director James Comey ruined Hillary Clinton's candidacy when in late October he summarily released thousands of emails of hers that, even though they contained nothing disqualifying, reminded the voting public that she was not trustworthy.

What then might Trump have in mind for us during the next few weeks? We know he shapes a daily political drama to dominate the news cycle and thus I suspect there will be at least two surprises of magnitude that will suck up all the media oxygen. I predict there will, unprecedented, be at least two such surprises since for Trump more is never enough.

One will involve foreign affairs, the other will focus on domestic theatrics.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo recently spent a week in Asia. In China but more interesting in North Korea. After his Korea visit he said little progress was made in denuclearization talks. I wonder.

My guess is that he brought with him for Kim Jong-un one of those love letters Trump mentioned the other day. Letters so steamy that even the exhibitionist president said they were too amorous to disclose.

Trump's to Kim likely included a plea--

"Help me out please! I'm about to get shellacked in the midterm elections and need your help. Maybe you could blow up a big missile or two on live TV. I could then say you're on track to getting rid of all your nukes. Of course that's really unnecessary. I just need a good show one of these mornings. Maybe you could time it so it could be shown on Fox & Friends. My favorite."

Then domestically, a couple of days ago, without a formal announcement, Trump launched the Month of the Woman. It began with UN ambassador Nikki Haley announcing on live TV in the Oval Office that she is resigning. 

There they were, Trump and Haley together shamelessly flirting with each other. 

The Month of the Woman will culminate with Trump appointing Dina Powell, a woman, to replace Haley. Unless Trump can convince daughter Ivanka to allow him to appoint her. One advantage for her--it would get her out of Washington (which she hates) and back to New York City.

Recognizing that the so-called "gender gap" is hovering at about 30 points, some are saying it's not a gap but a chasm, realizing that, Trump will do all sorts of things between now and November 6th to focus on how good his presidency has been for women and then will hope that at least a few will show up at the polls in November and vote for him.

If women come out in a wave of votes for Democrats, he'll need more than a couple of surprises to keep him from being impeached in January. There aren't enough angry old white guys to keep him politically safe. We'll see, then, if he can bamboozle enough women to vote for Republicans as he did in 2016.

I'm saying, more than anything else, Kim has to come through for him.

October 5, 2018--Uncurb Your Enthusiasm

The very astute Jim Messina, Barack Obama's campaign manager for the 2012 election, says that when it comes to midterm elections what really counts is how enthusiastic voters are about voting. For midterms it's all about turnout, turnout, turnout.

In regard to the looming election, by this measure, up until October 1st, things were looking very good for Democrats. Not ideal in the senatorial races because there are up to ten Democrats seeking reelection in very red states, but for the House a Blue Wave was gathering. 

Though some pollsters and pundits felt the Dems had a decent chance of taking control of the Senate, the House was almost certain to flip. Democrats, they felt could gain perhaps 40 to 50 seats and impeachment hearing would commence January 2nd.

But, according to the very latest NPR/PBS poll it is looking as if the Republicans are more than likely to retain control of the Senate and, if current trends continue, maybe even the House.

This is because the enthusiasm numbers, the gap between the GOP and the Democrats, is narrowing fast. In fact, the Republicans have collapsed the enthusiasm gap to virtually zero.

In July "only" 68% of potential Republican voters saw the election to be "very important" while 80% of Democrats were eager to vote. A more than double-digit gap.

As of the October 1st poll, however, 80% of Republicans see the election to be very important and are feeling motivated to vote while for Democrats the number crept up to 82%. The gap is now well within the margin of error. A statistical tie.

What happened?

Simple--the confirmation hearings for Brett Kavanaugh.

The most dispassionate analysts see Republican voters to be motivated by either the excitement of his gaining a seat on the Supreme Court or, if he doesn't, it will be because the Democrats and the "mainstream" media have conspired to vilify and undermine him.

So, they are either excited or enraged. Either emotion more than enough to get Republicans eager to vote.

Thus, progressives beware. This to me is sounding spookily too much like 2016 when Trump came out of a version of political nowhere and won. We need to get even more enthusiastic about voting and work hard to assure a big turnout.

Otherwise . . .

August 27, 2018--As He Lay Dying

A day or two before the end, as his old best friend, John McCain, lay dying, as we have seen Lindsey do before, he couldn't keep his hands off his new best friend, Donald J. Trump. 

Senator Lindsey Graham is such a suck up for hunky men that when he encounters one, or one pretending to be one, he seemingly can't control himself.

This time, with Trump, the gift he brought was to clear a path that would enable him to fire the Attorney General with minimal political dissent or outrage. This he gift-wrapped for Trump, the one man John McCain clearly despised. At least he could have waited until after the funeral. We know Trump won't show up, isn't welcome, and now I wonder about jilted-by-death Lindsey. Will he have the cajones to show his face at the service. 

This gift about when and how to dump Sessions was hand delivered by the same swooning Lindsey who only a few months ago said that if Trump fires Sessions there will be "holy hell to pay."

Late last week Graham noted that Sessions has clearly lost Trump's confidence (this is news?) and that he, Lindsey, a leader in the Senate, did not necessarily object to Trump replacing him after the midterm elections. 

Presumably the congressional elections will result in deep loses among Republicans and, Graham suggested, as presidents in the past have done, Trump should "reshuffle" his cabinet mainly to deflect blame for the election results from himself to his hapless underlings. 

And by reshuffling Graham means dumping a few cabinet officers, not just Sessions, so he won't stick out so much. It would appear to be more a house cleaning than retribution because Sessions recused himself from the Russia investigation and refused to see his job as protecting Trump from his own worst proclivities.

I suppose this advice constitutes something other than what Lindsey considers hell to pay.

Think Clinton in 1994, George W. Bush in 2006, and Barack Obama in 2010. All of whom reshuffled their cabinets after off-cycle election results.

And think how President Lyndon Johnson got around being pressured to make Bobby Kennedy his running mate in 1964. LBJ despised RFK even more than McCain hated Trump or Trump hates Sessions. 

He announced that his choice would not be from anyone serving in his cabinet (Bobby was still Attorney General) because there was so much work to do that he couldn't spare anyone's full-time attention. 

Everyone at the time knew what he was really doing--jettisoning Kennedy--and before long Johnson had become so politically toxic that he little choice but to withdrew from the 1986 race.

If only history could in this case repeat itself.

Rona has another theory about what Lindsey Graham is up to--

She thinks he is too smart and weaselly to give into his infatuation and is trying to trick Trump into not firing Sessions until after the midterms. He believes that Trump firing Sessions before November would so inflame voters that the Republicans would do even worse than is currently predicted.

Interesting. 

In that case let's hope Trump fires Sessions at the end of  October. Let that be the October Surprise. That would be better than bombing North Korea.

Then we could begin to speculate who Trump will attempt to appoint (I say "attempt" because Democratic senators will filibuster).

Top of the list could be Rudy or Chris Christie (remember him?). Or perhaps from Trump's world of reality TV--Judge Judy, Judge Jeanine, Judge Nepolitano, or Laura Ingraham who is a lawyer.

Perhaps most confirmable by the Senate is, why not, Lindsey Graham.

June 21, 2018--Jack's Secret

"You know, Jack, I'm so disgusted by what Trump and the Republicans are up to that I don't want to have anything to do with them or, for that matter, you."

"Here I popped in to share a cup of coffee with you and you're giving me all sorts of grief. What did I do this time to get under your skin?"

"Are you kidding me? Did you just get back from Mars? Even if you did I assume they have Fox News there."

"On Mars?"

"Don't try to wiggle out of this by pretending to be cute and innocent  You know what's going on. You know how despicable you and your people have been. I'm so angry about what you are doing at the border with Mexico that I don't want to see your face much less sit together and pretend nothing is going on."

Jack remained standing in place in the middle of the diner. 

"For years I tried to talk with you rationally. Even respectfully. To hear your views. To try to understand where you were coming from. How you could possibly think Trump would be a good president. Why you thought he could be elected and when he won, as much of a hallucination as that was, I listened to you talk about about how he would surprise me and get all sorts of good things done. That he wasn't a monster. How he might even be a closet Democrat. You remember how he was going to clean out the swamp, which I agreed needing doing? Tell me about that now. Among others, he and his family have taken over the swamp." 

Jack remained fixed where he was.

I paused to catch my breath. It felt as if I was going to have a heart attack. "But then this. This. You remember at the beginning of the campaign how he out of the blue savagely attacked John McCain? How he blasted him because he had been captured during the war in Vietnam? Trump the draft dodger said he liked winners, not people who were taken prisoner. Saying this about McCain, who was shot down flying a bombing mission, I thought for sure would doom Trump's candidacy. But he rose in the polls as he did after he claimed he could shoot someone dead on Fifth Avenue and get away with it. Any normal candidate saying that would have been ridden out of office. But no, his poll numbers continued to rise. Well, he's just topped himself again. What he's up to would politically doom anyone else. This one you're going to have to explain to me."

"Can I . . . ?"

"No. Stay right where you are, or yet better, leave." I had never talked to Jack this way.

"And to think I came in this morning to share a secret with you."

Not finished, I ignored him. "Tell me one thing and after that I'll see if I ever again want to have anything to do with you."

"Shoot," he caught himself, "Forgive me, I know you don't believe in guns. Please continue."

"I don't need your permission. Stay where you are. I have a few other things to get off my chest. Since you had the audacity to show up I do have a question for you."

Jack leaned toward where I was sitting in the booth. 

"My question is how any of your people, I mean the non-crazy ones (though there are too many of those for my taste), how do they justify what's going on with those families seeking asylum in America? I know, Trump and his most awful people want to send a message to anyone heading north from Central America and Mexico that if they show up at the border with children they will be taken away from them and the parents will be sent right back home, leaving their children behind in cages and tents without air conditioning. In the hope that this will deter others from following in their footsteps. I know we can't welcome everyone fleeing poverty and violence--that would be millions of refugees, but is what the government is now doing justified by wanting to keep immigrants, OK, undocumented immigrants out of the country? To treat children this way? Is this their perverted way of making America great again? It's making America evil again."

I raged on, "I mean, this is far from what we did to Japanese citizens during the Second World War. Citizens. What we did then was worse. We put them in 'internment' camps. A fancy word for concentration camps. We took away their property without any due process and held them for years. Years. During Roosevelt's time. During a liberal Democrat's time.  So there is plenty of blame to go around. But shouldn't we at least learn a few things from history? Minimally, what not to repeat."

"I . . ."

"Answer that for me."

"I came in to talk to you about donuts. What you been writing about . . ."

"Forget donuts. Enough about donuts. What's going on in our name, as Americans, is evil. How can anyone justify this? How can anyone . . ." I was sputtering.

"The donut thing is relevant to what you're saying."

For the moment I was out of gas, "This I have to hear."

"It may surprise you that I agree with you about separating families. About zero tolerance. We are still a nation of immigrants. We need immigrants. We don't have enough workers. And we should welcome refugees. Not all of them but as many as our cities and workforce can handle. But real refugees who are trying to escape from persecution."

I couldn't believe what I was hearing.

"We should increase the number we allow into the country legally. How can anyone feel good about having ten million here illegally? We should figure out a way to make most of them permanent residents. I don't know about paths to citizenship kinds of things. But we shouldn't be rounding them up and deporting them. And, by the way, your Obama was a pretty good deporter. And we sure as shit shouldn't be separating families. Conservatives are supposed to believe in families. And not just white ones or families who are here illegally. Families are families. That's what conservatives should believe. And liberals too. We can have our disagreements about what a family is, but we should do what we can to help people remain families."

I was stunned. Though I did know about Jack's very troubled family and his childhood.

"Which brings me back to the donuts."

"Shoot," I said.

At that he smiled the familiar Jack ironic smile and continued, "You wrote that you needed a break from the serious news and that the donuts stories--which I loved, by the way, especially the ones about your friend who comes from a longtime Maine family and the one where you and another friend thought there was a bear in the woods--that the donut stories and the bear and chipmunk story were a diversion from the awful hard news. 

"I get that," he continued, "But here's the secret--you're playing right into the hands of Trump and his people. Not that you're writing for the New York Times or are that influential, but they want all of you who are left-wingers to get so exhausted and frustrated by what's going on that you'll give up and opt out and look for things to distract yourselves. In, other words, capitulate.

"Yeah, you'll vote for Democrats in November, but not in overwhelming numbers. Which could tilt things Trump's way. They want you to get so frustrated that you come to feel that the situation is hopeless. That if you lose your enthusiasm that will be good for Trump, whose approval numbers, by the way, are creeping up. 

"One example--two nights ago, during her show, Rachel Maddow began to cry--cry--while reporting about the children who are being separated from their parents. Among other things, it revealed how exhausted she is by all of this. I assume others are feeling the same way. It could lead to many, out of self-protection, to pull back. 

"But my secret is that what Trump is up to every day, when he creates another crisis, is designed to overload the nation's circuits. He's putting it to Democrats, who are so good at talking and criticizing and writing and being smart about everything to see if they can punch back. To see if you have staying power or if you'll fold up in frustration."

I continued to stare at Jack. 

"That's it," he said.

Shrugging, after a moment he turned to leave. I made no move to stop him.

June 4, 2018--Barr & Bee

Of course Samantha Bee has the First Amendment right on her TV show to call Ivanka Trump a "feckless cunt."

And of course Rosanne Barr has the same constitutional right on Twitter to refer to African-American Valerie Jarrett as an "ape."

The First Amendment also protects their right to be stupid, and worse. They both for me are on the "worse" end of the scale.

But freedom of speech and other freedoms can have consequences.

For example, many on the left applauded the ABC network when it moved swiftly to cancel Barr's top-rated show. While many on the right are calling on Bee's network, TBS, to do the same thing. Not firing her they see to be evidence of liberal bias in the media. Minimally, evidence of a double standard.

Clearly what Barr and Bee did was not equivalent. 

Bee made her stupid comments as part of stand-up schtick. In other words what she spewed was an example of a joke gone wrong. Terribly wrong. 

But comedians are given dispensation to push the limits in their acts (think Lenny Bruce and Joan Rivers). In fact, they are encouraged to do so. They are often seen as speaking truth to power under the cover of comedy. Like Shakespeare's fools (think Lear's Fool or Puck in Midsummer Night's Dream).

Barr exposed her racism on Twitter, as a private citizen (who has the same First Amendment rights as Rosanne the actor), expressing her views, not in character, while off the air. Also, she claimed, as an alibi, that what she tweeted was a clumsy joke that misfired.

So an initial issue involves the fact that Barr was fired while Bee wasn't. At least not yet. The double-standards business claimed by Republicans. Though let's see what TBS does when more of her sponsors dump her, as some already have.

TBS may be able to allow Bee to remain on the air until that inevitably happens because her show is broadcast on cable where standards about what is acceptable are more permissive than what traditional networks allow, especially, as in ABC's case, if the network is owned by PG-rated Disney.

Now, let's deal with the politics beyond the hypocrisy on both the right and left.

The right at the moment has the political upper hand--Barr was fired while Bee wasn't. As good as progressives are at explaining things away, rationalizing them (as they have been struggling to do for days now on MSNBC) it is hard to make the case that it's OK, after an apology, to say about Ivanka what Bee said even though it was uttered under the sanction of comedy, where anything goes, and was directed at an employee of the White House (fair game) who also happens to be our reprehensible president's daughter. A president who has contributed immeasurably to the coarsening of discourse that has led to this. A president who has said much worse things than Samantha Bee or, for that matter, Rosanne Barr.

Again politically, progressives occupied the moral high ground while Barr's tweets were the sole subject of outrage. Then Bee stepped in it and changed the focus of the political struggle. Now everyone is talking and agitating about Samantha Bee. Rosanne Barr is relegated to a sidebar.

Here's my take--

I hate what both of them said. But both of them are or should be protected to say almost anything. (Not "Fire!" in a crowded theater.) That's the easy part. It's my view that they are pretty much equally culpable. Many on the left disagree. Fine.

I wouldn't fire either of them. We don't want to intimidate our comedians, our fools. During these times we need them more than ever. We need to hear their versions of the truth. We need them to be funny while subversive. How so many of us can't wait for the latest episode of Saturday Night Live. There is already so much fear that chilling difficult discourse more than it already is is dangerous to our survival as a democracy.

As a partisan, as someone who wants to see Trump weakend, humbled, and thereby rendered less effective, I want those on the left, who are essential to helping to bring this about, to be smarter than they currently are. We can't retreat from the fray and focus on our lifestyles (I have written about this ad nauseam) but must fight back even harder. Though smarter. 

Samantha Bee's rights are constitutionally protected (at least for now), but wasting them by wounding oneself while being stupid, and the rationalizations I am hearing from those I otherwise admire, is helping boost Trump's approval ratings and will interfere with progressives' prospects in November.

I am sorry if this pragmatic focus does not elevate our dialogue but until after the midterms my mantra is going to continue to be obsessively practical. 

I want us to be smart, less self-righteous, and above all win. Then we can go back to being nuanced and subtle. 

June 1, 2018--Jack: Base-Ball

"I don't want to talk about politics," Jack said, waving us off before we could even say hello after running into him in on a perfect morning in downtown Damariscotta.

"I unfriended half my Facebook friends because of politics," he said. I suspected that included me since I haven't seen any postings from him for at least two months. 

"I'm just trying to get the renovation work done on my house and want to lead a calm life. The politics talk has been making me crazy."

I said, "I understand, but you know it's your own fault." He looked at me skeptically and tried to walk on. I trailed after him. "How can you literally run away from the discussions you initiated for months? Years?"

"Like I said," he said with his back half turned away, "I'm through with talking. I want to concentrate on living."

"I'm not blaming Trump's election of you," I said, "But you bear some responsibility. You talked him up for months before he ran and after he beat the odds and won the nomination, all you wanted to talk about was Trump, Trump, Trump. You remember--'your boy?'"

"I need to get back to work," he said but stopped racing ahead and turned toward me, slowing down so I could keep up with him. I'm a little wobbly on me feet, he's full of energy.

"So are you having a bit of a change of heart?" I suspected this might be why he didn't want to talk and had unfriended so many people. Avoidance. Feeling, perhaps, that he was in fact partly responsible for Trump's election but was feeling some disenchantment.

"I don't agree with everything he says or does. Nobody does. But I do agree with some of his issues."

"Some? That surprises me. I would have thought from our conversations that you'd be a happy camper. But give me some examples of things with which you agree and especially those with which you disagree."

"I believe in the tariffs. All around the world they're taking advantage of us. Even our so-called friends  Europe, Canada, and of course Mexico. They're killing us. Especially the Chinese. So he's right now moving, in fact today, to impose them. On steel and aluminum. He promised to do that during the campaign. And by the way, one thing you'll have to agree about--he is good at keeping his campaign promises."

"Even the crazy ones like tariffs. Most Republicans don't agree with them," Rona said. She had caught up with us. "They believe in the free market. That it will take care of everything, including inequality, if the government stops trying to manage the economy. Conservative politicians and economists say this. For every job saved by these kinds of tariffs three down the supply chain are lost."

"We'll see how it works out," Jack said, avoiding eye contact. But he made no effort to move on.

"You really want a trade war with China just when we need them to help us with North Korea?"

"The Chinese are smart. That can do two things at at the same time. Like walk and chew gum. As long as they see it to be in their best interest."

"Speaking of the Chinese," Rona pressed on, "How are you feeling about all those million-dollar trademarks the Chinese recently awarded First Daughter Ivanka? Just days before Trump went against all advise to prop up that Chinese telecommunications firm, ZTE, that everyone, including Republicans, say is a threat to our national security. This feels like play for pay to me."

"Not my favorite thing," Jack mumbled.

"Anything else not your favorite thing?" I poked him, "You said that there are things Trump is doing that you disagree with."

"I'm not sure he should be meeting with the North Koreans. I mean, do you think they're going to give up their nuclear bombs just because Trump acts nice to them and agrees to meet? I doubt it. I think Kim and his henchmen are very smart and are looking to buy time while finishing the work to build missiles that can reach America. They did the same thing with Clinton, Bush, and Obama. Our presidents thought they were making progress with the current Kim's father all the while they cheated and perfected their nukes and missiles."

"So why do you think Trump seems so eager to take a deal?"

"You mean other than winning the Peace Prize?" I nodded. "It's all about his base. People like me," Jack fessed up, "To appeal to them, us, by moving down the checklist of his campaign promises. We talked about that already. He's doing everything he can to get his people to turn out in November and vote. To try to keep the majority in Congress. Especially the House because if he can turn that tide or blue wave around he won't be impeached."

"I agree with that," I said. "You might think about it as base-ball."

Jack moaned, "What a terrible pun. But I do agree. It's all about them. And me. At the moment I've had it about up to here. I'm focused on getting my house painted."

"A lot of people on both sides are concentrating on their houses. On their lives. They, we, are also fed up with everything political. We need a break. Distractions," Rona said, "But those of us who want to see things change in Washington had better not be passive and withdraw from the battle. Tending to our gardens. Our future is at stake."

"I would agree with that," Jack said, "But about the specifics we still disagree. Though I'm not happy with everything. That I'll admit. I'm not in the same place I was 18 months ago. Maybe one day we'll meet in the middle."

"As long as it's my side of the middle," Rona said.

Jack reached out to hug her and then ran off.

Damariscotta 

May 16, 2018--Morel Mushroom Time

My friend Murray says that many of his liberal friends are feeling "dispirited." 

I asked why and he told me it's for at least two reasons--first that Trump seems to be doing well, that in spite of his outrageousness and the daily scandals his approval ratings are rising, perhaps into the mid-forties; and people he knows are fed up with all the breaking news. It's wearing them down, getting under their skin. As he put it, "They've had it up to here."

Another friend, Nancy, told me the other morning about a meeting she attended of Democrat activists who are attempting to nominate people who have a change of unseating incumbents in the November election. "The first meeting of this kind a couple of months ago attracted 60 participants," she said, "Those who attended were full of energy and optimism. Last week there was a followup meeting. Only 30 showed up."

When I asked why that might be she said because people are growing pessimistic as they contemplate the direction in which the country is moving. More following Trump than toward moderation.

And then I heard from another friend, Seth, who lives in Washington, DC, who is very bright, well informed, and activated. For months on Facebook he has been posting tough pieces that offer a sharp critique of Trump and his most fervent followers, both those in the government as well as politically-engaged Trumpians. 

In response to something I posted about reconnecting with what had happened during the week in which I did not watch any TV, Seth posted a response on Facebook. He has been a very inventive and successful chef and from that experience wrote--

Here's my two cents--turn the news back off. It isn't getting any better. Reason and logic will not overcome and we are all just waiting til midterms to find out if half the country really do support this administration, or if all the decent smart people just figured that the last election was a wash and didn't show up. 

Anyway, the more important current situation is that morel mushrooms should be popping up in the woods all around you right now. And for me there is nothing that soothes away the politics like a long walk in the woods. 

I have switched my political energy to mushroom hunting--not sure if living in DC makes it easier or tougher to drop out, but dropping out lets me sleep better.  

I am an avid recruiter for the sport of mushroom hunting. I think you will eventually find the coming chanterelle season to hold more anticipation than the Mueller investigation.

I love Seth, I really do, and I understand his feelings, frustration, and inclination to drop out. Especially if that includes morels. And I know he is writing this in part with tongue in cheek. But I also sense that he is feeling politically dispirited and that is not a good thing.

We need Seth and Nancy and Murray and everyone like them who see Trump and his administration to be a dangerous catastrophe to hang in there and fight, particularly when feeling dispirited. Because if we and people like us drop out and turn to our version of mushroom hunting, as a people, as a nation we are cooked. 

If in November Republicans retain their House majority, a walk in the woods will not be sufficient to distract us from what is surely to occur during the next two to six years.

Republicans, conservatives, Trump people will not be out searching for mushrooms. While we are, they'll be marching in majority numbers to local, state, and national voting booths. They are passionate and organized.

This is not the time to feel sorry for ourselves. There's a war going on and we have to engage in it. I'm for walks in the woods and gathering morels but we also have to find the right balance to do what we need to do to maintain our sanity--I get that--but also how to fight and win. 

March 16, 2018--Step Aside, Nancy

An important promise that congressman-elect Conor Lamb made during his campaign in southwestern Pennsylvania was the promise that if elected and the Democrats take control of the House of Representatives, he would not vote for Nancy Pelosi to again become Speaker. 

In his calm if convoluted style, Lamb said, "I think it's clear that this Congress is not working for people. We need new leadership on both sides. It's not personal" he continued, "It's more about the fact that I expect leaders to get results, and the result of our congressional leadership has been to have people in the district dissatisfied with their performance."

Early in the campaign, with millions of out-of-district money flooding in to underwrite Republican Rick Saccone's efforts, most of the TV ads were about how beneficial the Trump tax cuts are for working people. When it became clear that voters were not buying this "white lie"--they knew the tax cuts were tipped to benefit big corporations and the wealthiest five percent--the Saccone campaign ran no more adds about taxes and switched tactics, airing new ones that claimed if Lamb were elected he would become one of Nancy Pelosi's sheep.

We know how that worked out. 

But, come the fall, in all congressional districts up for grabs, perhaps as many as 125, we know that there will be an avalanche of anti-Pelosi ads. 

GOP campaigns will focus on the few issues that remain for them to try to hoodwink voters--the evils of immigration, guns, and God. But front and center will be ads about aspiring-Speaker Pelosi who they will demonologize  

One thing we know they won't be doing is inviting Donald Trump to come campaign for them as the more he did for Saccone the worse it became for him. His lead in the polls evaporated.

Lamb is right. Pelosi is no longer an effective leader. She had her turn in 2009-2013 and with it made history--as the first female Speaker she presided over a productive House of Representatives where she was essential to the passage of Obamacare legislation.

Now, she is more political liability than asset. For the sake of her party, as her best contribution to resisting Trump's agenda come November, she should step aside now and in so doing reap all the accolades she has earned. This is a better exit from the spotlight than being voted out as Lamb and his-soon-to-be-gathering colleagues will surely do.

There comes a time for all of us.

January 22, 2018--The March

Saturday's Women's March was again extraordinary. Hundreds of thousands of largely young people, mainly women, turned out in the United States and around the world in all kinds of weather.

Not intentionally, Rona and I got swept into the periphery of it in New York City. We were in the vicinity of Times Square for another purpose and found ourselves . . . marching.

It was a powerful, emotional experience. I know that there has been some backbiting among the organizers who planned and carried out last year's version, held the day after Donald Trump's inauguration-- the size of that march eclipsing the much smaller crowd that showed up for his swearing in, nasty speech, and his still ongoing smarting that his inaugural turnout was by far the largest in history--but no matter. 

It was remarkable, amazing. So much energy, a palpable feeling of empowerment, which of course is the real goal of these marches--women taking more control of their political lives and destiny. 

Speaker after speaker took note of the fact that thousands of women nationwide, at all levels, are signing up to run for office. This suggests that November may be shaping up to be an historical comeuppance for Trump and his cult of followers. 

Say goodbye, Republicans, to your current majority in the House and I suspect the Senate. That would bring about a new day. That would truly be what is most historic about the current situation--new voters and newly activated citizens taking back their country. In perfect irony, they, we will make America great again. 

But besid the possibility that we will be engaged in a major war in Korea come November which will cause many Americans to rally to a president that they otherwise despise, there is another danger--

With the march itself. 

Rather an unanticipated consequence from its very nature--that it is a women's march. 

Though men are welcome to participate, the vast majority of those who marched were women.

If this becomes the electoral face of those who oppose Trump, with Hollywood stars pushing their way into the spotlight, there is the danger of a backlash among moderate, politically independent men who may come to feel excluded by the movement that the march represents. 

These men are needed as part of the coalition that has the potential in November, for all intents and purposes, to end the Trump presidency. To turn him into an instant lame duck. Domestically at least--powerless. 

These are some of the same men, not Trump acolytes, who could not bring themselves to pull the lever and vote for Hillary Clinton. Next time around, we cannot let this happen. They have to feel welcomed, comfortable being lead by women and willing to vote for women for Congress as well as at the state and municipal levels.

We have to write off Trump's 35-40 percent. They are the ones who would support him even if he murdered someone on Fifth Avenue, as he said with insight during the campaign. But to win and thereby rescue ourselves we need the active support of the persuadables. Some of them the old Reagan Democrats. Or their descendants. There are still plenty of them who are swing voters who live in swing states.

So what to do?

For the next march attention should be paid to the sensitivities and vulnerabilities of these men who must become political allies. In the next march they should have some public role to play. The themes to emphasize need to include a portion that are gender neutral--like inequality and our plummeting position in the world. These themes should not be so much about so-called "women's issues." It would be wise to include more that cross genders and are universal.

I understand that these suggestions will not go down well among some or even many, especially coming from a not-quite-dead-yet white male. But if we want to win--and we desperately should--I put these thoughts forward in the spirit of wanting to help.

December 29, 2017--Predictions for 2018

As the new year looms, the news media have been looking back over the past year. Much of that review is political, some elegiac. They list those who died, mainly from the entertainment world; and this year they are devoting a lot of air time to reviewing Donald Trump's first year as president.

Yesterday on CNN and Morning Joe, while reviewing the year, in addition to talking endlessly about the Mueller probe, the tightening of the noose around Trump's inner circle, and the passage of the new tax bill, unable to control themselves, they even made lists of his top-ten tweets. It's come to that.

Since I've had it up to here with most things Trump I will resist doing that.

I used to enjoy watching the McLaughlin Group, a weekend TV talkshow hosted by the curmudgeony John McLaughlin. Each show ended with him asking his panelists for predictions. As his guests made them he would tell them which ones were right and which, his favorite, were wrong. Then, ex-priest that he was, he would make predictions of his own, declaring all of them, of course, "ontologically certain."

I'm not that good at the predictions business and so will acknowledge in advance that most of the ones below would not please McLaughlin. In spite of this, to make them feels like fun and I could use some fun.

So here are my predictions for 2018--

Before the end of his first term, President Trump will not have an opportunity to appoint anyone else to the Supreme Court. He might have his eye on 110 year-old Ruth Bader Ginsburg, but I know these Jewish ladies and she is going nowhere fast.

Speaking about terms in office, don't get you're hopes up. Trump also is staying put and Mueller, whose report will be issued a month before the midterm elections, in September, will not find enough evidence to indict Trump. He will, though, cite him to be an "unindicted co-conspirator."

Son-in-law Jared will be indicted for lying to the FBI and Trump promptly will pardon him. This will precipitate a "constitutional crisis." Minimally, we'll finally find out what a constitutional crisis means.

It, though, will mean that the Trump stock market bubble will burst. Expect the Dow to lose 25 percent of its value. So hold onto to your cash and be prepared to buy in next fall when this happens.

These events will contribute to a Democratic landslide in November. Expect to see them regain control of both houses, unless another dozen Democratic congressmen are forced to resign because of not being able to keep their hands or tongues to themselves. 

Like Lyndon Johnson, Trump will decline to run for a second term, citing evidence that he has successfully reversed every single one of Barak Obama's initiatives and that means he has erased Obama from the history books and thus America is great again and there is nothing more for him to accomplish. 

Senator Rubio will defeat Steve Bannon for the Republican nomination and will begin to appear in cowboy boots so no one ever again will call him "Little Marco."

At least half the newly elected Dems plus Anthony Weiner will immediately begin to seek the nomination for the presidency. They will join the 17 already reviving up their campaigns. 

Longer term prediction--neither Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, nor Elizabeth Warren will win the nomination. The twin Castro brothers will. Both of them will be nominated. Voters will get two for the price of one and taxpayers will save all sorts of money as there all be no need to hire a body double to protect whichever one is the actual president. We also won't need a Vice President. More taxpayer money saved.

And, no, Hillary Clinton will not run. It's more likely that she'll be locked up than Trump.

Omarosa will get a $10 million advance for her tell-all book, and it will be number one on the NY Times best seller list until 2019, followed by Sean Spicer's tell-all book, followed by Anthony Scaramucci's tell-all memoir, followed by Kellyanne Conway's. She will have resigned in May to get in on the lucrative tell-all action.

Alabama, the Crimson Tide, will not win the college football championship in 2018. Clemson will. There's a limit to what one can expect to happen in one year in Alabama. Almost electing a pedophile to the Senate is for them accomplishment enough.

And forget the New England Patriots. The won't get to the Super Bowl much less win.

But the Yankees will make it to the World Series which will suggest that the moon is again in the seventh house.

And, in case I forget to mention, Ruth Bader Ginsburg will still be sitting on the Supreme Court. She may no longer be living, but there she'll be. For a preview, look carefully at the picture below.

She's Not Praying

November 6, 2017--We Need to Get Off Our Butts

All the liberals I know are fulminating about Donald Trump and all the truly destructive things he and his administration are doing to America.

Rather than focusing on what we can do today, almost all are turning their attention to the 2018 midterm elections and the 2020 presidential race in which Trump has already announced he will run for a second term.

But almost all the liberals I know are not paying any attention to an important off-cycle election that will take place tomorrow, Tuesday, in Virginia, where the current governor, Terry McAuliffe is term-limited and thus unable to run for an additional term.

As a measure of the seriousness of the outcome in Virginia Bill Clinton and even Barack Obama campaigned for the lackluster Democratic candidate, Ralph Northam. They also pointed to the political opportunity represented by the down-ballot elections, most importantly races for the state legislature.

I know more than a dozen Virginia residents, all Democrats, and only one two of them have done anything more than talk about how terrible the Republican candidates are. I have not heard from any of them that they are canvasing door-to-door or manning phone banks to help bring out the vote.

All the recent polls show the race for governor and lieutenant governor to be a statistical dead heat. Political professionals from both parties are saying it's all about turnout. The winners will be the ones who can mobilize their supporters to vote.

Knowing this, as my well-informed friends do, there is still little action to speak of among progressives. Except for whining and complaining about how terrible things are. How, for example, if the Republican candidate, Ed Gillespie, wins and enough Republicans are elected to state office, women's reproductive rights will be imperiled and voting rights are likely to be curtailed. 

If that isn't enough to get my friends off their butts I don't know what will. 

Sadly, even the fear of that is not motivating a flurry of action. If I were cynical (and I am), I would suspect that my purple state friends would rather have things to complain about than make the effort to win.

Even sadder, I see this self-indulgent apathy to be endemic to the national Democratic Party. 

We've turned criticizing Donald Trump into an art form--feeling proud about our ability and cleverness to do that--but most liberals continue to look down their noses while mocking his supporters. But in the meantime, his people are mobilized and we are, well, wallowing in petulant passivity. All the while reminding anyone who will listen how smart we are.

You know what? We're not that smart at all. 

We may know our history, we may be more literate, more articulate, better educated, more reasonable, but what we are really good at is losing.

Who are our leaders? Chuck Schumer? Nancy Pelosi? Bernie Sanders? Joe Biden? Harvard professor Elizabeth Warren? Barack Obama?

Not including Obama, their average age is 72.  To make our agony worse, Obama, whom we pine for, is constitutionally unable to run for a third term. And even if he could, my suspicion is that he would lose to Trump who would again enjoy demonizing him.

As Harry Reid's former chief of staff, David Krone, recently told the New York Times, "There are killers and there are whiners. Unfortunately we have too many of the latter and not enough of the former."

If we can't get our act together to win this one--and with the scandals plaguing Trump, it should not be that difficult--2018 looms as a potential disaster. And unless we can come up with better candidates and get activated, we need to get ready for eight years of Donald Trump.

Ed Gillespie

June 7, 2017--Jack: How to Lose the Next Election

Midterm elections are more than a year-and-a-half away and though 2020 is years from now, already Democrats are doing an excellent job of arranging to lose both.

Depressing? For me, and I know for most of you, deeply so.

But there is lots of time to get our act together. But, first, there are a few things we have to stop doing.

First and foremost, we have to stop being stupid.

I know many on the left think that Donald Trump is the stupid one, but by recent evidence, compared to some prominent liberals, he is looking politically savvy and we are busy shooting ourselves in the foot. Both feet.

Jack has been eager to point this out to me.

Over coffee Monday morning, as pumped up as I've seen him in some while, he said, "Tell me what you think about this."

"Go on."

On Meet the Press on Sunday who compared Donald Trump to OJ Simpson?" Jack paused to grin at me.

I stared into the bottom of my coffee mug and said, "Go on."

"I'll give you a hint. It's a he and he ran for president and almost won." I didn't say a word.

"About Trump withdrawing from the Paris climate deal, one of your favorites said--'He says he's going to go out and find a better deal. That's like OJ Simpson saying he's going to find the real killer. Everyone knows Trump isn't going to do that because he doesn't believe in it.'"

"Is it Al Gore?"

"Close but, no, John Kerry. Hang on, there's more. Here's an easier one for you. It happened Friday night. I'm sure you'll know who it is. While interviewing Senator Ben Sasse of Nebraska, who was out humping his new book, The Vanishing American Adult, the host said he needs to visit Nebraska more. The senator then recommended he visit his state and 'work in the fields.' Again, one of your favorites, looking at Sasse quizzically, raised his hands and said--forgive my language but I'm quoting him, 'Work the fields? Senator I'm a house nigger.' There was embarrassed laughter. But that's what he said."

"I'm afraid I do know who that was."

"Tell me."

"Bill Maher," I mumbled.

"Speak up. I can barely hear you," Jack said. I chose not to but he raced on, "Then there was a late-night TV host. Can you tell me who it was? After saying he was outraged by President Trump's put downs of journalists, including a colleague, John Dickerson, at the end of a profanity-filled rant, he said, and again I'm quoting him, I'm not making this up,  'The only thing Trump's mouth is good for is being Vladimir Putin's cock holster.'

I knew who did that but declined to take Jack's bait.

"And I'm sure you know who posted this picture." He dug out his iPhone and quickly found an image of Kathy Griffin holding up an effigy of Donald Trump's severed head.

"My point is this," Jack said, sounding serious, "My point is that while the country is being torn apart by partisanship and violent disagreements about how Trump is doing as president, while this is going on, and I've confessed I have my problems with him, some problems, this is the best you can do?"

"There are plenty of other things going on," I said, "Like marches, like media coverage of his most outrageous behaviors, like Democrats in Congress opposing some of his craziest ideas like the budget and healthcare legislation. It's not all Kathy Griffin and Stephen Colbert."

"But you're missing the larger point. Though what you say is objectively true, that though these kinds of racist and snarky episodes occur only occasionally, they really turn off the very kinds of voters liberals like you want to attract back to the Democrat Party. You have no idea how alienating this kind of mocking smugness is. It only reenforces the opinion that liberals are out of touch with average people and can't be taken seriously. It's another example of how conservatives and many Independents see the Democrat Party captured by east and west coast elites."

Reluctantly, I said, "I can't say I disagree with you about that."

"And then on top of this," Jack said, "Hillary Clinton is running around the country making speeches (I assume for big bucks) about why she lost the election. Blaming everyone and everything but herself. Whining about how she ran out of money, that James Comey sabotaged her candidacy, and that her defeat is all the result of misogyny. This too isn't helping your cause."

He folded his arms across his chest, leaned back in the booth, and, feeling good about himself, simply smiled.

February 9, 2017--Mitch's Candidate

While she was speaking on the Senate floor Wednesday evening, by telling Elizabeth Warren to sit down and shut up, not only did Mitch McConnell commit a gendered offense, he also arranged that she would become the instant leader of the Democratic Party and also her party's front runner for the 2020 presidential election.

Does this suggest that the 74-year-old Mitch is starting to lose it?

Quite the contrary.

Sly dog that he is, he is helping to propel the Democarts' weakest candidate to the nomination.

If anything will assure McConnell's continued leadership of the Senate after the 2018 midterms, this is it and while he was at it he made it more likely that Donald Trump will be reelected in four years.

If Hillary had problems winning midwestern states, how will Harvard professor Warren fare among working-class voters? I can just see those coal miners standing in line in the rain to vote for her. I can just imagine displaced Ohio factory workers resonating to her message. I can just see how her becoming a darling of the coastal elites will excite Pennsylvania voters.

What McConnell did was outrageous and should be condemned. Among other offenses he never would have done this to a male colleagues. But politically, in this conflicted time, I hate it, it was pure genius.

Or then again, maybe he doesn't have a clue.