March 15, 2019--BETO: Born to Run

Here's my quick initial impression of BETO O'Rourke's long anticipated announcement that he is running for president--

I begin with a confession:

I want to fall in love with this guy. I want to be convinced that he can beat Trump in 2020. I want to believe he has the chops as well as the obvious buzz and charisma. I want to find he's not just sizzle. That there is also steak.

I've been hoping to see these qualities in Kamala Harris, but she thus far seems more surface than substance. And as of now I see it as unlikely that she can successfully take on and unseat Trump. That is all I care about. Defeating Trump.

Then there is the Democrats' Hamlet--Joe Biden. 

To run, or not to run. That is the question. 

This soliloquy is not working. His tease of a dance makes it look as if he, at 76, doesn't have the energy or stamina to take on the rigors of a national campaign. This public coyness, this flirtation is already wearing thin. He feels out of gas even though he hasn't really started!

Bernie or Warren could win the nomination but would struggle to find a strategy to challenge Trump in the general. He's already half figured out how to get under their skin. And wouldn't he relish running against a socialist. He'd make that equivalent to competing with a terrorist who snuck into the United States across the Mexican border in a cargo container.

So then, what about BETO?

Get out your copy of Vanity Fair magazine. By an amazing coincidence the latest issue, with him on the cover, dropped just a day before he announced. What remarkable timing. As I said, amazing.

Take a close look at the photos. How surprising is it that they were taken by glamorizing celebrity photographer Annie Leibowitz and that the subtitle of the accompanying article is, "Man, I'm Just Born To Be In It."

This notion of his natural right to run laid out in VF with Annie's perfect pictures is too bicoastal. It doesn't sound like Rust Belt. It would be better to have been written about in some Wisconsin magazine, if any still exist.

In sum, BETO's problem appears to be a certain tone deafness. It's as if he can't wait to get into the spotlight and out of El Paso.  

He has time to get it right, but in the meantime I need to figure out how to fall in love with Kamala.

November 2, 2017--Papadopoulos

As we're relocating, this will be brief.

My prediction about Mueller's indictments turned out to be half right--

Manafort yes, Flynn no--which suggests Flynn may have already made a deal to become a government witness. If so, that would be terrifying to Donald Trump as former National Security Advisor Flynn likely has quite a story to tell.

And no Jared Kushner who after two months of being out of sight finally showed up on a "secret" visit to Saudi Arabia. What's that about? Probably he was trying to appear insouciant. Pretending not to have a care in the world.

Then there is the story in Vanity Fair that Trump is blaming his son-in-law for convincing him to fire Flynn and FBI director Comes and that this in turn led to the appointment of the special counsel. If true, and it sounds like it is, this is the beginning of the end. Greek drama time.

Biggest surprise--most dangerous to Trump of those indicted--is George Papadopoulos. He was "turned" by Mueller in June by agreeing to help the on-going investigation in return for a promised slap on the legal wrist. 

Though this occurred months ago, apparently no one on the Trump team knew or suspected he was from that time working against them as a kind of double agent.

Thus, he was likely "wearing a wire" during some or all of that time.

Who knows what discussions might have been recorded. 

A desperate Trump yesterday, in addition to trying to blame everything on Hillary, called Papadopoulos a "liar" and "a low level volunteer," as if his job was to run errands and get coffee for the senior people.

To believe this one needs to explain the picture below of Papadopoulos at the table with Trump and senior level campaign officials.

If not for this photo one would never know that Trump is so welcoming to low-level volunteers.