October 2, 2019--What's Up With Australia?

Before we could sit, John Allan said, "What's up with Australia?" His face with his new beard made him look cherubic. His eyes were as lively as I had seen for some time. He looked as if he had shed ten years since we had coffee with him just a few days ago.

"What's up with you?" I asked. 

"I was taking a shower and listening to NPR and they seemed to be talking about Australia. Is anything going on down there?" He was grinning and winking.

"I think I know what you're referring to," I said, "Trump."

"Right you are," John said, clapping his hands, now smiling playfully, "Remember George Papadopoulos? A low-level Trump operative who was stirring around looking for dirt about Hillary for the 2016 election? He somehow managed to meet with a high-level Australian diplomat in London who told him the Russians had stuff that could undermine Hillary's campaign. Including, I think, that the Ukrainians had their hands on a server that held thousands of her emails."

"I'm with you," I said, sliding into the booth.

"So, according to NPR Trump recently asked his cultural conservative pal, the Australian prime minister, Scott Morrison, who rose to prominence by leading the effort to close Australia's borders to refuges and immigrants, Trump asked him if he would help Attorney General, Trump's poodle, Bill Barr, who was traveling the world to gather information about the origins of the Mueller probe."

"He can't give that up," Rona said, "Even though he dodged the Mueller bullet, he's still obsessed with it."

"He never can let go of anything, especially anything critical of him," John said. "Even the smallest things. But that's just the beginning of the breaking news. All afternoon on Monday, beginning about 4 o'clock, there was one bombshell after another. First, we learned that Rudy was subpoenaed by three House committees to turn over to them documents about his Ukraine-related dealings."

"Next," Rona said, "we heard that Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, was on the line during Trump's call with Ukraine president Zelezney. The 'do-us-a-favor' call that may turn out to be the smoking gun that brings Trump down."

"Then," John said, "there was the breaking news that Barr is on an undisclosed worldwide trip to gather dirt about his own FBI and the CIA. Specifically what they did to undermine Trump and help bring about the Mueller investigation. Barr's in Italy now."

"From the look of him," I said, "he's spending most of his time in trattorias."

"Nasty, nasty," John said, enjoying every word and tidbit of news and gossip, "We could go on," he said.

"I think it's the beginning of the end," Rona said. She's not prone to be optimistic about these matters.

"That's why you're looking so energetic and youthful," I said to John, "It's not just your beard." 

"I got some sleep and woke up at two in the morning, not as usual to anxiasize, but to see if there was any new news since I had gone to bed."

Rona said, "Speaking of sleep, I heard from my sister that my brother-in-law, for the first time in more than two years, had a good night's sleep."

February 6, 2018--The Nothing-Burger

With the release of Congressman Devin Nunes's pathetic three-and-a-half-page memo about the investigation of Russia's role in our 2016 presidential election, the fact that it is widely considered to be a nothingburger, for Donald Trump it makes matters worse. Much worse.

If it had been a something-burger, a full, well argued and sourced document that called the integrity of the investigation into question, if it provided incontrovertible evidence that the FBI and the Department of Justice were conspiring to remove Trump from office, Trump would not have to lie, claiming, as he did, that it "totally vindicates" him--the evidence for that would speak for itself--he could take a few leisurely victory laps to show the electorate that all along he has been telling the truth while the government has been concocting a case against him, his family, and his inner circle.

He wouldn't need to fire anyone. Even Robert Mueller would have been exposed as corrupt and possibly indictable and would have no choice but to resign in disgrace. 

Trump would not have to pardon anyone--there would be no one to pardon--nor would he be forced to testify. What would there be to question him about? And with Mueller out of the way, no one to do it.

But the fact that the Nunes memo is acknowledged by many to be a "dud," from Trump's perspective it changes everything.

Every hour that goes by, the serious media and the Democrats are chipping away at the memo, exposing more and more of its untruths and intentional omissions. Even a few Republicans have raised questions about its validity.

For example, the person the Trump people have been comfortable having as the fall guy, goofball Carter Page, according to Nunes, turns out to be a bit player in comparison to George Papadopoulos, who, by turning state's evidence, threatens to bring about the Fall of the House of Trump.

Thus, there will be no victory lap for Trump. In fact, Mueller seems to be increasing the pace of his staff's work to get as much done as possible before Trump tries to pull the plug on the investigation.

The shabbiness of the Nunes memo will also put Trump in higher gear. If it doesn't in fact exonerate him, what is he left with to do?

With the clock running out he may accelerate the firing of Rosenstein and Mueller as well as pardon all close to him who are in danger of being indicted. 

This would be the Saturday Night Massacre times ten. 

But with Republicans in the House of Representatives, very much including the now unmasked sycophantic Speaker, Paul Ryan, rolling over for Trump, all the Democrats will see themselves able to do is express outrage, jump up and down, go on MSNBC, and hope to take control of the House of Representatives in November.

What might the public do? Envision mass marches on both sides with some ugly clashes. Shades of the anti-war demonstrations and counter-demonstrations of the 60s and 70s.

The saddest thing is that no matter what Trump might do, he will still have his 35 percent of unquestioning supporters and the whole thing could turn out to be at most a two-week story.

But then again, and this is the scenario I am betting on, Ryan may emerge from his bubble and see his reputation collapsing. If that happens, he will begin to distance himself from Trump--fearing he will lose his speakership in November--which would  make it acceptable for enough Republicans in the House to join with Democrats to act like patriots and not the historical disgraces they currently are. 

There are already a few signs of this, including the fact that yesterday all GOP members of the House Intelligence Committee (what a misnomer) voted to release the Democratic rebuttal to the Munes memo. And with the stock market in danger of crashing that in itself will give the lie to Trump's claim that because of him there is a thriving economy. Remember, it still is the economy, stupid.

January 25, 2018--Mueller's "Whitewash"

I have a Facebook friend who has been consistently pessimistic about everything involving Donald Trump and the fate of the world. Among other things he expects to see nuclear war with North Korea breaking out this year.

He is very angry and may be right on all counts as he is smart, successful, and well informed.

Here's a recent, slightly edited example from his postings--

I'm now worried that Mueller is going to do a whitewash. I cannot understand why he hasn't brought in Trump's lying son or Kushner and his wife. At first I thought it was because he knew if he did Trump would fire him. But now I don't know. They all need to go to jail if not for lying than for money laundering and tax evasion. They must be deterred from ever seeking public office. I'm worried.

Thinking about this and the list of witnesses Mueller has interviewed and is planning to seek testimony from, it is curious that the Kusners and Trump's sons are not on the list. Trump himself, though, clearly appears to be.

Traditionally with investigations and prosecutions of this kind, where there may be collusion, obstruction of justice, and conspiratorial behavior, prosecutors work their way up the witness food chain. From, in this case, the likes of George (Coffee Boy) Papadopoulos to Paul Manafort to Michael Flynn to Jeff Sessions to Steve Bannon and then on to members of Trump's inner-inner circle, including ultimately the president and his potentially implicatable family members.

So what is Mueller's logic of seemingly not seeking testimony from Trump's sons, daughter, and beloved son-in-law?

I've been struggling to make sense of these curious omissions and have finally come to what I now see to be very clever. This should have been apparent to me sooner as Mueller is nothing if not clever.

The special counsel is intentionally not planning to include the children in his investigation and thus will not charge them in his ultimate findings.

Keeping his eye on the big picture--Donald Trump and what he did that is potentially indictable or impeachable in order to cleanse the system, Mueller does not want to incite Trump even more than he is fulminating at present.

Mueller suspects that if he moves against any of the children, Trump will go off the rails and immediately pardon them, disband Mueller's team, and fire Attorney General Sessions and Mueller himself, precipitating a constitutional crises that will make Watergate look no more troubling than a parking ticket.

As a backup to a version of likely mass firings reminiscent of the Watergate Saturday Night Massacre, in addition, the main thing from a Mueller perspective, is to get enough work completed, enough evidence double and triple checked, enough of the mosaic of evidence pulled together into a coherent and convincing narrative, and to insure enough channels are in place to leak all of this to the public and Congress if it hits the fan before he completes his work. 

Mueller wants to make it certain that Americans get the full report of his findings. To, if necessary, leak them so no matter what Trump does to him and his staff, the truth will out.

The bottom line for the investigation and for us is what Trump knew and then did. If our democracy is to survive we need to know the peril in which we have been so that we can recover what has already been lost. Everything Mueller does should be viewed in this critical light.

December 4, 2017--Déjà Vu All Over Again

This Yogism rings true as the Mueller investigation closes in on the upper reaches of the Trump White House. 

To anyone old enough to remember the unraveling of the Watergate scandal more than 40 years ago, the recent defections from members of the Trump team will feel familiar---déjà vu all over again.

What eventually brought down the Nixon administration and led to the indictment or jailing of 40 of his associates was the squeeze, squeeze, squeeze, drip, drip, drip strategy. Just what we're seeing now.

In the case of Watergate, a smalltime player, former CIA agent James McCord, was caught with other burglars when breaking into the offices of the Democratic National Committee in the Watergate complex.

He was the first of the buglers to be convicted--on eight counts--and was facing many years of hard time in a federal prison. Just as he was to be sentenced, he informed the presiding judge that he and a story to tell. 

So a deal was stuck--McCord received a modest sentence in return for agreeing to blow the whistle on those above him in the Nixon administration hierarchy. Among them, White House counsel John Dean, who in turn made a deal to implicate those above him in the organization chart, also in return for a reduced sentence.

The special prosecutor continued to work his way up the food chain and many senior aides were successfully prosecuted. Nixon himself was listed as "an unindicted co-conspirator" and was forced to reign the presidency. And the rest was history.

Squeeze, squeeze, drip, drip.

Now we have exactly the same thing unfolding within the Trump administration.

First to be successfully squeezed was George Papadopoulos, a relatively minor player in the Trump campaign and transition. But someone the year before Trump listed as one of two of his "foreign policy advisors." Later, we know, disavowing him, Trump said Papadopoulos was so insignificant that he mainly remembers him as the intern who brought coffee to the principals. 

The other foreign policy "expert" Trump listed was the now-indicted, soon to be squeezed, Paul Manafort.

And a few days after that, Michael Flynn, a key advisor to Trump and his National Security Advisor for 24 days, stepped forward with the story he has to tell. That story, it is already being leaked, includes his assertion that, in regard to working with the Russians to defeat Hillary Clinton, he reported to and worked with son-in-law Jared Kushner. 

(Don't be surprised if it turns out that Lieutenant General Flynn tape recorded his calls with Kushner and who knows who else. He comes from a military intelligence background.)

If true, this would be incendiary because we already know who Jared reports to.

Then there is beloved daughter, Ivanka, who like her husband Jared, has also in recent months been relatively invisible. She and her family were not even in Florida with Trump and Melania during Thanksgiving.

With Flynn pleading guilty in large part to protect his chief of staff son from prosecution, with Jared and Ivanka and probably a Trump son or two in peril, it is getting to be Shakespearean. 

I'm thinking Lear. 

Trump already seems to be wandering around in a storm of his own devising. That appears to include stealth bombers right now moving closer to North Korea.

Even Trump was reported to say, "This is very, very, very bad."

I'd say, "It's very, very, very, very bad."

Michael Flynn & Michael Flynn Jr.

November 2, 2017--Papadopoulos

As we're relocating, this will be brief.

My prediction about Mueller's indictments turned out to be half right--

Manafort yes, Flynn no--which suggests Flynn may have already made a deal to become a government witness. If so, that would be terrifying to Donald Trump as former National Security Advisor Flynn likely has quite a story to tell.

And no Jared Kushner who after two months of being out of sight finally showed up on a "secret" visit to Saudi Arabia. What's that about? Probably he was trying to appear insouciant. Pretending not to have a care in the world.

Then there is the story in Vanity Fair that Trump is blaming his son-in-law for convincing him to fire Flynn and FBI director Comes and that this in turn led to the appointment of the special counsel. If true, and it sounds like it is, this is the beginning of the end. Greek drama time.

Biggest surprise--most dangerous to Trump of those indicted--is George Papadopoulos. He was "turned" by Mueller in June by agreeing to help the on-going investigation in return for a promised slap on the legal wrist. 

Though this occurred months ago, apparently no one on the Trump team knew or suspected he was from that time working against them as a kind of double agent.

Thus, he was likely "wearing a wire" during some or all of that time.

Who knows what discussions might have been recorded. 

A desperate Trump yesterday, in addition to trying to blame everything on Hillary, called Papadopoulos a "liar" and "a low level volunteer," as if his job was to run errands and get coffee for the senior people.

To believe this one needs to explain the picture below of Papadopoulos at the table with Trump and senior level campaign officials.

If not for this photo one would never know that Trump is so welcoming to low-level volunteers.