October 29, 2104--Catching Up With the Times

Is it just me, or is it true that the news of the world these days is unusually, relentlessly grim?

Maybe it's always dire, but take the headiness from a couple of pages in last Saturday's New York Times--

"Islamist Party in Tunisia Appears Set to Rebound" It turns out that this in fact didn't happen but the Saturday piece saw a strong likelihood that the Islamist Ennahda Party, in the country where the Arab Spring began, would win a plurality of votes, defeating the more secular parties who now control the caretaker government.

"In French Port, 'Psychosis' Over Migrants From Middle East and Africa" Faced with ever-increasing numbers of migrants from Africa and the Middle East, the French government, in response to civic anxiety, is sending police reinforcements to the port of Calais to control the unruly situation.

"With Guile and Tiny Torah, Women Hold a Bat Mitzvah at the Western Wall" Calling for equal rights for women at the holy Western Wall of the biblical Jewish Temple, defying religious authorities and the police, women smuggled a miniature Torah to the Wall and conduced a Bat Mitzvah of a 13-year-old girl. The ceremony was broken up by the police and many participants were arrested. The orthodox insist that only men be allowed to conduct religious ceremonies there.

"Putin Lashes Out at U.S. for Backing 'Neo-Fascists' and 'Islamic Radicals'" In his strongest diatribe yet, Putin claimed that the United States fomented most of the world's recent crises. From Syria to Ukraine.

"31 Egyptian Soldiers Are Killed as Militants Attack in Sinai" Two coordinated attacks in the Sinai by followers of the Muslim Brotherhood led to the deaths of 31 and the wounding of at least 28 others.

"Hong Kong Stars Who Back Protests Are Losing Work and Fans in Mainland" Chinese actors, musicians, and other celebrities who have supported protests in support of more open government are being stigmatized and boycotted on the Mainland.

"Pro-Beijing Lawmaker Urges Hong Kong Leader to Consider Quitting" A pro-business party leader in Hong Kong is pressing the city's chief executive to resign.

"Ottawa Gunman's Islamic Radicalism Deepened as His Life Began to Crumble" The young man who ran over and killed a Canadian soldier last week in Montreal turned to militant Islam as he felt his life's chances diminishing.

"Sunni Militants Draw Iraqi Forces Into Intense Battles on Several Fronts" A report about ISIS or ISIL's progress in attacking Shia and Kurdish strongholds. Another article two days later revealed that ISIS fighters are now equipped with sophisticated Chinese shoulder-fired ground-to-air missiles, making it difficult for the Iraqi and American air forces to attack their positions. I continue to wonder why ISIS militants are so adept at warfare while the Iraqi army, that we trained for years, can't shot straight.

"Poland Appeals Ruling on Transfer of Terror Suspects" The Polish government is appealing a court ruling that claims it transferred two terrorism suspects to "black sites" in northern Poland run by the CIA.

"Israeli Troops Kill Palestinian Teenagers in West Bank, the 2nd in 8 Days" Israeli troops shot and killed a Palestinian teenager who allegedly threw a fire-bomb onto a main road in the West Bank often used by Israeli soldiers.

All the News That's Fit to Print indeed.

August 16, 2013--Arab Winter

Fridays in August should be times for languor and light spiritedness. Pass by this then if you want to protect your tranquility, but I cannot resist saying a few words about the escalating crises in the Middle East.

With a state of emergency declared in Egypt--after hundreds there were slaughtered by the military in an attempt to take the country back from the democratically-elected leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood--with continued unrest in Bahrain; democracy under threat in Tunisia, Iraq, Libya, and possibly even Turkey; and an all-out civil war raging in Syria, what ever became of the hope engendered by the Arab Spring that commenced in Tunisia more than two years ago?  The hope that authoritarian leaders from Muammar al-Gaddafi in Libya to Hosni Mubarak in Egypt would topple one-by-one and liberal democracies would take their places?

Isn't this what Barack Obama early in his presidency in a speech in Cairo saw to be the strategic opportunity in the region? And wasn't it for this that he was awarded a preemptive Nobel Peace Prize?

But now we have this--a tectonic nightmare of old authoritarian regimes overthrown and supplanted by radical leaders, many of whom either have ties to al Qaeda or tolerate their presence. Who foresaw that this would be the last gasp of 19th century colonialism and the dawn of a complicated new day in the Muslim world? 

Actually, many did who knew anything about the history of the Arab lands and the contesting forces active in every country throughout the region.

Does anyone doubt that events in Egypt will lead to a civil war there at least as ugly as the one underway in Syria? With the military government so casual about murdering hundreds of protesters isn't it inevitable that this will not suppress the opponents of military rule but motivate and inspire them to become more aggressive, ultimately take up arms, and prevail?

Is there any doubt that at some point in the not distant future we will see similar situations in Jordan and even Saudi Arabia where corrupt monarchies currently rule?

Then what we will have? A region in full turmoil with access to oil severely restricted. What will then be the consequences for the global economy? 

The ideals espoused by Woodrow Wilson, Franklin Roosevelt, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama in historical perspective look naive. 

Not everyone wants a government similar to ours (in fact, a majority of Americans themselves aren't too happy with the state of our own current government), not every country (especially those with arbitrary borders drawn up by the West after the First World War) is culturally set up to embrace democracy. And when they do fight for and achieve the right to vote--with our endorsement--they elect leaders from Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Muslim Brotherhood. 

This is just another sad example of unintended consequences, of the danger of getting what one wishes for.