July 30, 2020--Follow the Sex

When prosecutors or investigative reporters are closing in on a subject, it is often said, "Follow the Money." Al Capone comes to mind.

This is certainly true about Donald Trump. District attorneys in New York, among other things, are looking into the finances of the Trump Foundation while others were given the go ahead recently by the Supreme Court to have access to eight years of his tax returns.

Also, while seeking explanations for Tump's cozy relationship with Vladimir Putin, it is speculated that it's all about money, Trump's obsession with building a Trump Tower in Red Square in Moscow.

While all of this and more are likely true, there may also be other powerful forces at work. Sex, for example.

Remember Stormy Daniels? She's the porn star with whom Trump had an affair and attempted to hush up by slipping her $130,000. Trump's fixer lawyer, Michael Cohen, wound up in jail for serving as the intermediary for this transaction. 

Then there is the notorious BuzzFeed Dossier, which, if it exists, may include evidence that Trump, when in Moscow in 2013 for the Miss Universe pageant cavorted with Russian prostitutes. If true, it is not hard to imagine that former KGB agent Putin has a dossier of his own that includes incriminating evidence of a sexual nature. Enough to buy Trump's silence about Russia's meddling in the 2016 election that swept him into the White House.

And, recently, we are hearing more about Trump and Jeffrey Epstein, who for years in Palm Beach provided the famous and rich with access to teenage girls.

Epstein's girlfriend and procurer, Ghislaine Maxwell, was recently indicted and jailed in New York without bail on a range of sexual trafficking charges. Prosecutors can't wait to get their hands on her little black book. At least two presidents--one retired, one current--are likely to be found therein. 

Thus, at a covid briefing last week, when Trump, to everyone's surprise, was asked about her, seemingly totally rehearsed, matter of factly, he indicated he knew her and, three times, said he hoped she was "doing well." Code to her--if she gets rid of the address book and doesn't implicate him she'll get the Roger Stone treatment--a commutation or pardon.

And finally, the reporter who asked Trump about Maxwell, as if out of the blue, was Steven Nelson, from, of all places, Rupert Murdoch's NY Post, which hardly qualifies as a newspaper.

Conspiracy theories welcome.

Hint--follow the sex, not the money.

July 28, 2020--Playing The White Card

There was a tsunami of political polls last week.  They tell one consistent story--Joe Biden is increasing his lead over Trump in every demographic category but one. 

Be it the ABC-Washington Post, Quinnipiac, or even the Fox News poll, Biden has opened double-digit leads among senior citizens, young voters, Hispanics, and African Americans among others.

The one demographic outlier is support for Trump among white voters. In the aggregate, across all age groups, 49 percent of white voters support Trump while 42 percent say they plan to back Biden. And with white people without college degrees Trump's lead is even larger--an unfathomable 57 to 35 percent.

This is both curious and significant. Curious because it stands out so starkly while on the other hand it is concerning since white people make up 61 percent of all voters and that means if Trump does exceptionally well among them he has a fighting chance to be reelected.

Is it "only" racism that is responsible for these numbers? 

I suspect for a good half of them it is. But that gets us just part way there. Racism is deeply rooted. Slavery, for example, has existed in America for more than 400 years. That is the definition of deeply rooted.

What then about the other reasons a majority of white people appear to support Trump?

Is it racism that a large percent of them are attracted to Trump's tell-it-like-it-supposedly is style? Especially when he attacks the coastal elites in the media, universities, and among the professional class?

Is it racism when Trump talks about the concerns of suburban "housewives" and a percentage of "stay-at-home moms" find his message resonates? And then there are Trump men who, proverbially, want their woman "barefoot and pregnant."

Is it racism when some white women like their men extra-macho and somehow, though hard to believe, find Trump to be attractively so?

Of course, some of this also includes a racist component. For example, the suburban women he is desperate to appeal to are white women, the same white women 52 percent of whom voted for him in 2016. When Trump turns his attention to suburban women he is not thinking about women of color.

My bottom line--the business of gender and race and voting is more complicated and unpredictable than it at first might seem. Thus the reasons why, say, a large percentage of white women voted for Trump four years ago and might do so again needs to be understood, even if one dislikes what is discovered.

July 23, 2020--Trump's War

Many on the left--me included--have assumed that close to Election Day, if he found himself slipping badly in the polls, a desperate Trump would start a war of distraction. 

Not a war with China or Russia or even Iran, but one of Reagan size--remember Grenada? A wag-the-dog sort of war. Just sufficient for Trump to rally enough voters to the cause to reelect him.

We may now be at that moment. Trump is losing to Biden among virtually all demographic subgroups and in all six key swing states. Trump is flailing around, having lost more than a full step.

His war may turn out to be one against America. Against the cities of America. Against cities with Democratic mayors. Against cities with large African-American populations.

Cities such as Portland, Oregon. Soon against Detroit and Philadelphia and Chicago and New York.

He calls it Operation Legend. I call it treason.

July 22, 2020--Trump Reboots

In a desperate attempt to reboot his failing presidential campaign, yesterday afternoon our commander in chief gave a solo "briefing" about the pandemic.

The headline was, "It will get worse before it gets better."

Subhead--"Wear a mask."

Sub, sub head--"Where was Dr. Fauci being held?

Believable except for the "better" part.

"Fact check me," Rona said, "but he didn't once deal with the most concerning thing on most Americans' minds."

"What's that?" I said.

"Our children and schooling," Rona said,"What about our children? What about the schools?"

Rona was right. There was not even a peep about that. And not from the media either.

Are we moving to not caring?

July 21, 2020--A Mandate for Biden

More than 100 days before Election Day we were nonetheless talking about making sure we got back to the city in time to vote. 

I quipped, "The Boy Scout in me makes me want to be prepared."

Bill said"You live in New York City, no?"

"We do," Rona said. 

"That means you don't have to vote," he said.

"We don't have to vote?" After years of our talking about politics I was more than a little surprised to hear him say that. 

"Dems always win in New York. Even a ham sandwich would be elected if it was a Democratic one," Bill said, "So your vote doesn't count. Biden doesn't need it. He'll get the usual 80 percent of New York's votes and 100 percent of the Electoral College vote so you can stay in Maine through Thanksgiving. No rush to leave."

I knew he was being playful but ignored that. There isn't anything about the upcoming election that I think is amusing. So I said, "You're right. He'll carry New York easily but my vote, every vote this time around is essential because Biden needs a mandate."

"Go on."

"For a number of reasons."

"I'm listening."

"First, a close result will likely encourage Trump to take a page from the 2000 election playbook when Bush and Gore essentially tied in Florida and the issue was decided by the Supreme Court. They wound up giving Bush the presidency. We can expect Trump to do something similar. So a big vote for Biden, including in New York and California where Dems do almost as well, will discourage vote challenges, including appeals to the Supreme Court."

"Fair point," Bill said. 

"More important," I said, "an electoral mandate for Biden, say with him receiving more than 55 percent of the national popular vote, would make it unlikely that Trump could get away with ignoring the vote altogether and refuse to vacate the White House on Inauguration Day."

Bill said, "About this I'm skeptical. If Trump is in any way serious about ignoring the will of the people I'm not sure how the vote totals would deter him."

"I'm not sure either," I sighed, "but I think it's urgent for us to do anything and everything we can to help Biden. Including to actually take office after receiving a mandate. With all the New York votes he can muster. Thus, we're returning to the city no later than mid October. And a couple of weeks later, voting."

Bill smiled.

July 16, 2020--In the Rose Garden

Anyone who witnessed even five minutes of whatever Tump was up to Tuesday for 63 minutes in the Rose Garden, merely from his incoherence, one could only conclude that our president is incapable of passing, much less acing my Aunt Madeline's "car-cat-tree" test of mental acuity.

July 14, 2020--Seven to Two

The first wave of phone calls, texts, and emails I received right after the Supreme Court late last week ruled that even the president is not above the law, that he must respond to subpoenas, and can be held accountable for any felonious activities in which he may have been involved, all the people I heard from were ecstatic, many claiming this would finally assure Trump's downfall.

A few hours later, after everyone had their fill of watching events unfold on CNN and MSNBC (Fox News devoted little programming time to cover this historic ruling) the tone of those who stayed in touch with me changed. 

Where earlier there had been euphoria I sensed the beginning of frustration.

"What's going on with you?" I asked a friend who just hours before had been the most enthusiastic, "I thought you were on happy pills. Now you sound as if you're headed for deep despair?"

In a flat voice she said, "Since we spoke I've been listening to cable news and everyone, their legal experts especially, say none of Trump's tax documents will be available to the public before Election Day. He and his henchmen will be able to run out the clock. The political effect will be nonexistent. I'm turning off the TV or will look for an episode of Friends to lose myself in."

"Before you pack it in," I said, "Be sure you're keeping your eye on the prize."

"What's that?" she said.

"The big picture," I said, "The historic nature of the Court's ruling. People will read about this 100 years from now. Just as we think about and read about Supreme Court decisions during the Watergate era. Like the Supreme Court ruling that Nixon was not above the law and thus needed to turn over to prosecutors the tapes he made while in the Oval Office."

I continued, now feeling euphoric myself, "Remember how through the seemingly endless years of the Trump administration we said that the most important checks-and-balances guard rail would turn out to be our justice system? That ultimately all the big questions would be resolved by the federal courts? Particularly as with Nixon and Clinton, who while still president was required by the Supreme Court to testify under oath, we speculated that soon equivalent matters would find their way to the highest court for resolution. Well, that's where we are now--the most important issues are being dealt with by the Supremes and, based on their rulings thus far, there are reasons to believe that Trump will eventually be bought before the bar of justice. Since, though he is president, he is still, according to the Constitution, just a citizen."

"I see your point," my friend said, "It is all about the precedents. The reassertion that even with an authoritarian like Trump the law will eventually find him and hold him accountable."

"That's the hope," I said. "Though I'll acknowledge there's still a ways to go. But we're finally heading in a good direction. And, by the way, the fact that the vote was 7 to 2, with Trump's two judges voting with the majority, suggests there may be a lot to feel good about."

July 13, 2020--Aced the Test

If Trump wants to demonstrate he's a "very stable genius," rather than taking a superficial mental acuity test designed to quickly check if one shows some evidence of mental impairment, he should take a real test, an IQ test.

An example of the kind of questions Trump recently grappled with (assuming he's telling the truth about being tested), are similar to ones an aunt who we cared for was quizzed about when checking in to Beth Israel Hospital. She was asked to repeat, "car, cat tree" three times, both forward and backward ("tree, cat, car"). 

Our wonderful Aunt Madeline "aced" the test. But for other reasons needed to be admitted and treated.

So that Trump can do a little practicing before taking an IQ test, here is an example of the kind of question he would confront.

It asks, Which does not belong--

Time's up. How did you do?

July 9, 2020--Mr. President

I finally figured out what's going on--

Donald Trump is running for president.

No, not that President. Not of the United States.

Rather, President of the Confederate States.

He heard that Jefferson Davis is stepping down.

July 8, 2020--Trump's Fish Story

Back in Washington Trump keeps his eye on the Dow Jones average. Though it doesn't at all, he claims it is the best measure of how well the economy is faring.

Up here in Maine we keep an eye on other things. For example, the wholesale price of lobster. It is thought to indicate how well the local economy is doing.

Trump was up in Maine a couple of weeks ago, visiting a factory that manufactures swabs that are used for coronavirus testing.

Of course he refused to wear a mask and thus after he left the swabs manufactured that day had to be thrown away.

At a meeting with lobstermen there was a lot of talk about the crustacean and the sorry state of the fishing industry. In response Trump told lie after lie.

No matter the subject, he obviously is incapable of telling the truth.

With the wholesale price of lobsters hovering at record lows, Trump blamed the collapsed market on Barack Obama and Joe Biden. Conveniently ignoring the fact that he has been president for almost four years and during that time the price has been declining precipitously.

Trump bellowed, "President Obama destroyed the lobster and fishing industry in Maine. Now it's back bigger and better than anyone ever thought possible. Enjoy your lobstering and fishing. Make lots of money!"

Fact checking reveals that Maine's lobster industry reached its peak in 2016, the last year of Obama's second term with 132 million pounds caught at a value of $540 million. But during the first three years of Trump's presidency Maine's fishermen sold less that $500 million worth a year.

At the end of the day, there is no evidence that Trump stopped on the way back to Washington at a lobster pound to pick up a couple of shedders.