August 31, 2020--Dukakis Redux

The Republican convention behind him, Trump immediately took to the road.

First stop, all in one day, New Hampshire then Louisiana and Texas hit hard last week by Hurricane Laura. This was not going to be his Katrina.

Then, he announced, that on Tuesday, tomorrow, he plans to visit Kenosha, Wisconsin where Jacob Blake was shot in the back seven times by local police. 

God knows what he'll say and do while there.

Next, he'll probably make his way to Portland, Oregon, where over the weekend a Trump supporter was shot and killed during a confrontation between far-left and far-right demonstrators. Trump's visit will likely be inflammatory.

All the while where was Joe Biden and what was he up to as Tump was making these telegenic stops?

In his basement, delivering a speech remotely to the American Legion convention.

Oh yes, he also announced he'll resume in-person campaigning after Labor Day.

After Labor Day? What's wrong with today? What was wrong with last week?

Does he want to be president? Is he aware of what his absence from the campaign trail suggests about his 77 year-old stamina? 

Trust me, nothing good.

This reminds me of Michael Dukakis's ill-fated 1988 run for the presidency. His opponent was the not-very-popular or charismatic George H.W. Bush, Ronald Reagan's vice president. 

For a while Dukakis's's strategy seemed to be working. A few months before Election Day he built a 17-point lead in the polls. And so, what did he do? Sat on his lead while he effectively stopped campaigning, he said, so he could concentrate on his day job--governor of Massachusetts. And I assume, practice his inaugural speech. 

But every once in a while Dukakis did get out to participate in a campaign stunt. The best known of these was his ride in a military issue 68-ton M1-A1 Abrams Tank. 

Pictures of the diminutive governor with his head barely visible above the armor plate made H.W. by comparison look like a super hero. And from the minute pictures of this began to circulate, Dukakis's poll numbers began to plummet and a few months later George H.W. Bush was the one measuring drapes for the Oval Office.

(Of course it didn't help that Republicans played the race card when  they circulated pictures of the very black menacing murderer, Willie Horton, who Governor Dukakis ordered released on weekend furlough and while free committed armed robbery and rape.)

Unless Biden gets mobilized, a few weeks from now I suspect that he and Trump will be in a statistical dead-heat and who knows where things will wind up. 

July 26, 2020--Upset

After revealing here that I was planning to watch all four days of the Republican convention one friend who read my piece asked why I was going to torture myself that way. "Why not instead watch a movie or tune into the new Perry Mason?"

"To know thy enemy," I said. 

"I get it," she said, "Maybe I'll try to do the same thing."

After the first night, another friend called to ask how I did. I confessed that the convention so upset me that I stopped watching at about 10:30.

"I stopped at 9:00," she said, "Shortly after we spoke on the phone. I spent the rest of the night listening to West-coast jazz," she said, still sounding languid. 

"What upset you?" she said, "As if I don't know--Everything? All of it? Right?"

"Yes and no," I said.  

"Tell me about the 'no,'" she said.

"They were disgusting. All the presenters. Nikki Haley was the worst. She was almost drooling in anticipation of running for the presidency in four years. Her speech was like an acceptance speech. Most of it was about her family and childhood. But she also was so praiseworthy of Trump, sucking up to him, that she said, she really did, that he was in the vanguard of those fighting to save 'Western Civilization.'"

"So that's why he loves Putin so much," my friend said, "Another protector of Western Civilization. But, say more about what down deep upset you so much. Putin is old news as is Haley's interest in running for the presidency."

"You really know me, don't you," I said. "You know it was something else that got to me that made me so agitated."

"So tell, tell."

"I was as upset as I was not because of how bad the Trump people were, but because of how good they were. Even Donald Jr. came off looking substantial. When I realized that in their own perverse ways they were doing well I gabbed the remote and began surfing, looking for a Perry Mason rerun."

"I'm getting this," my friend said, "It may also have been why I didn't watch very much. I couldn't stand the idea of seeing them, in their own terms, doing well or even decently. I needed to see them screw up, making a mockery of themselves."

I said, "It also upset me to see how relatively organized they were. And that they could muster a version of diversity. They put on more than a few African-American and Latino folks. Not just a bunch of white guys clutching six-packs. I know I'm being stereotypical, but really, they did credibly and that upset me."

"Me too," my friend confessed.

I then said, "At least since the late '60s the Republicans have been working on their political revolution. You remember Kevin Phillip's, The Emerging Republican Majority? It was published in 1969 and became a kind of road map for how to take power. Including competing for anything up for grabs, from dog catcher to governor to senator to president. Republicans for many decades have been working on taking power at the local, state, and national levels. And have had a lot of success."

We paused to catch our breaths and think about all the things we discussed that had upset us so much. 

My fiend finally said, "I think you're right, but Biden is still going to win. And big." 

"I agree," I said. "But we'd better work our asses off to make sure that happens."

Kimberly Guilfoyle--Don Junior's Gilrlfiend 

August 24, 2020--Trump Keynoters

To be responsible, I've been planning to watch as much of the Republican convention as I did the Democrats. Well, almost as much. OK, half an hour a night.

In the spirit of full disclosure, I've been hoping that Clint Eastwood would return and again, as he did in 2016, talk to his chair. Anticipating that would keep me awake well into primetime.

To prevent Clint from showing up uninvited and doing something unhinged (that role is reserved exclusively for the commander in chief), a leftwing conspiracy theorist reports Eastwood is being held in a cell in Guantanamo.

My plans for this week are unravelling because of who will be on the program. Desperate to demonstrate the GOP has at least some diversity--the speakers will include six party loyalists, including presidential aspirant and former ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley (a woman); African-American South Carolina senator Tim Scott; Mike Pence; and Iowa Senator Joni Ernst who is likely to lose in November. 

Balancing the ticket will be Trump, who is planning to speak all four nights, and five other Trumps, including his adult children, from Don Jr. to the semi-estranged Tiffany.

On the other hand I was sad to hear that Trump's sister the judge will not be there nor will his niece.

You expect me to stay up to midnight with his lineup? So much for responsibility. There's a limit to what I'm willing to do for the sake of responsibility. I flunked that test long ago (car, cat, tree).

A friend said she'd watch the whole thing if they gave her the peroxide concession.

It was not disclosed if the Trump kids will be vaccinated on stage.

August 21, 2020--Miss Moscow

Earlier this week the Senate Intelligence Committee issued a nearly 1,000 page bipartisan report about Trump's involvement with the Russians, including details of the ways in which he, his campaign, and members of his administration colluded with the Russians during the 2016 election. 

The repot included information and hints about Trump's sexual escapades in Moscow during the 2013 Miss Universe contest.

Is there any possibility that former KGB colonel, Vladimir Putin, does not have all sorts of documentary evidence about these liaisons? Video and audio tapes, photographs, and taped testimony about what Trump was up to?

As I have been suggesting for years, these goods the Russians have on Trump may be at the heart of his political corruption and support of Putin and his regime.

Below are the opening paragraphs of Michael Schmidt's New York Times article about the report: 

Two decades before he ran for president, Donald J. Trump traveled to Russia, where he scouted properties, was wined and dined and, of greatest significance to Senate intelligence investigators, met a woman who was a former Miss Moscow. 

A Trump associate, Robert Curran, who was interviewed by the Senate investigators, said he believed Mr. Trump may have had a romantic relationship with the woman. On the same trip, another Trump associate, Leon D. Black, told investigators that he and Mr. Trump “might have been in a strip club together.” Another witness said that Mr. Trump may have been with other women in Moscow and later brought them along to a meeting with the mayor. 

Mr. Trump was married to Marla Maples at the time. 

August 18, 2020--Tiffany

Cousin Maureen said she liked my Evanka Trump October Surprise blog. "It made me laugh out loud."

"Thanks," I said. "Quite a few people had the same reaction."

"There's only one thing I would have changed," she said.

"What's that?"

"I would have suggested that Trump daughter Tiffany be the one to get vaccinated live on cable TV."

"Marla Maples daughter? Really?"

"Think about it," Maureen said.

August 17, 2020--In Plain Sight

Not hiding in plain sight, last week, without even having to listen closely, Trump told us why he is messing with the postal service:

To interfere with the gathering and counting of mail-in ballots.

This is an example of what political pundit John Heilemann calls Trump's propensity to either project or confess 

It is Trump's view that there is massive fraud when it comes to these ballots and claims, with a straight face, that he wants to insure that everything is on the up and up.

Is there a bridge in Brooklyn for sale?

The good news may be that he is shooting himself in the foot.

How so?

For example--if voters who want to make sure their ballots count change their minds about voting by mail and decide to do so in person, whose demographic--Trump's or Biden's--is more likely to be able and willing to wait in line for three hours to vote?

A 67 year-old white guy with a beer belly or a 32 year-old teacher who jogs five miles a day?

It may be for this reason that behind the scenes Mitch McConnell is pleading with Trump to back off. He knows mail-in ballots traditionally favor Republicans.

Mitch is right. Play on Donald.

June 9th Primary In Georgia

August 12, 2020--Ivanka's October Surprise

We don't have to worry about Jared and Ivanka. Between them last year they "earned" well over $30 million. 

But there is something else they need to be concerned about. 

The October Surprise may turn out to be Ivanka Trump on live TV or Fox News being vaccinated for COVID.

You say there will be safe vaccines available as soon as October? 

No, but just like Putin's daughter who her daddy says was inoculated with an insufficiently-tested Russian vaccine, if things continue to be politically dire for Trump, if I were Ivanka, I would be covering my literal tush.

August 11, 2020--Biden's Bunker

With friends I was debating Joe Biden's pre-election strategy.

Specifically, if his decision to spend the campaign in his Delaware basement office was wise or misdirected.

For the most part my friends were all right with it.

"He's way ahead in the polls," one put it, "Including in almost all the swing states, so why mess up a good thing with his making controversial comments and gaffs."

Others chimed in, "Look, all that we should care about is getting rid of Trump so if this means Biden remains isolated, we shouldn't care. If he's elected there will be plenty of time for him to be out and about."

"I'm coming to have a different view," I said,"I'm concerned that his remaining in self-imposed  quarantine can be attacked politically. Trump, who is out and about, can say Biden is too old to be in public because he's afraid he'll catch the virus and die. Or, Trump can say Biden doesn't want to be unscripted because he'll say something stupid. I remember Jimmy Carter running for reelection from the confines of the White House. Not wanting to be seen campaigning because the Iranians were holding dozens of Americans hostages. They called it the Rose Garden strategy. How did that workout?"

"Reagan was elected," I said.  "So, I worry about Biden."

"In addition Trump gets to fly around the country claiming he's trying to get money to the unemployed while Biden is holed up." 

"Not a bad point," one of my friends said, "Biden emerged from his bunker the other day for an interview with the Association of Hispanic Journalists and stepped right in it, saying that there's more diversity among Latinos than black people. These kind of gaffs aren't doing him any good."

Another friend summed it up, "So back to the basement he goes."

August 7, 2020--Deutsche Bank

On July 27, 2017 I posted a piece of speculation about Donald Trump's ultimate denouement. 

As with everything else having to do with him, it will be about the money.

I thought, with the blockbuster piece about Trump's relationship to Deutsche Bank in yesterday's New York Times, I would repost my piece because the paper of record forgot to include one important thing--where the bank's money came from.

Some this is dated but I think still rings true. It also suggests Trump may be one big step closer to an orange jumpsuit 

Here is what I wrote--

No one should be surprised. Least of all Donald Trump. It has been clear for a half year or more where all this is headed.

It's always been about the money.

The denouement will not be about Paul Manafort's money or Michael Flynn's or Jared Kushner's or Ivanka's money, nor even Don Junior's.

It will be about Donald Trump's money.

A good question--if he is so proud of his wealth how come he has refused to reveal his tax filings?

On the simplest level, he has resisted because he lies about how much money he has. He has a lot, about a billion or two, enough for most of us, but not the 5 to 10 billion he has long claimed.

Remember how Marco Rubio's crack during the primary debates about his small hands got under his skin? Well, this is the same sort of thing. Manhood. Size always mattered more to guys than to women.

But, he somehow managed to get elected and reluctantly moved to Washington and into the White House. Back in New York, in his Trump, Inc. operation, which was and still is a mom-and-pop business, he was used to being the only one whose ideas counted and he had no one ever pushing back on him when he went off and did something stupid. Like getting involved with gambling casinos in Atlantic City and Miss Universe pageants.

Over time, with the big boost The Apprentice gave to his image, he effectively became a brand. Selling his name and endorsement to the highest bidders, raking in the licensing money with little effort other than keeping his name and gold-foil life style in public view. Thus, even the parade of girlfriends and wives, as he aged and swelled, ones younger and younger, were a part of that charade.

Zeroing in--

When Trump needed to ante up money for a project or bail himself out of an impending bankruptcy, where do we think he turned for money? Citibank? Chase? Wells Fargo? Goldman Sachs? No chance.

We're talking chop shops like loan sharks, offshore money, and especially money from laundries such as Deutsche Bank, which until a few years ago was a favorite place for Russian kleptocrats to sanitize their dirty lucre.

In 2008, Trump Jr. on the record said that, "Russians make up a pretty disproportionate cross-section of a lot of our assets. We see a lot of money pouring in from Russia."

At least someone in his family is capable of letting the truth slip out.

Even a casual perusal of Trump's tax returns would reveal the sources of his money and income. Would it surprise anyone if we in this way discovered that he engaged in all sorts of shady deals and shenanigans with lots of money coming from Russia?

So when it finally dawned on Trump that special counsel Robert Mueller has the power to demand his tax and other financial documents, something Trump incredibly seems to have begun to pay attention to just this week, bells and whistles went off and that immediately became Trump's line in the sand--he told the New York Times he might fire Mueller if he pressed to scrutinize his or his family's finances.

We know for sure following the money trail is looming. It's Special Counsel 101.

And then, of course, Mueller would also see son Junior's and son-in-law Kushner's tax filings, which would make matters even worse.

What we'd be likely see is the inner financial machinations of a crime family.

Donald Junior is reported to be whining that he can't wait for this presidency to be over.

Well, he may soon get his wish. He may not have to wait an endless three-and-a-half years.

If Junior is unravelling as quickly as it appears, Trump's oldest son, feeling squeezed by the implosion, may follow in the footsteps of one of Bernie Madoff's sons. I can't bring myself to spell this out. If you don't remember the details, you're on your own to look them up.

So, here are the final steps. They will happen quickly because we have a talented and mobilized press corps. Much more so than during Watergate. Trump is getting back in kind for what he dished out to the "fake-news" press. I wouldn't have recommended messing with that sleeping giant.

I suspect he'll skip the firing-Mueller step and move right to the pardons. Sacking Mueller, assuming Trump has the power to do that, would bring down the wrath of not only Democrats (that would be predictable) but also rouse the up-to-now hypocritical Republicans who despise Trump but support his agenda, such as it is.

Thus, Trump has been asking about what pardon powers he has and boasting about it. They are constitutionally wide ranging. He'll pardon Flynn and Manafort, which should keep them from throwing Trump under the bus (elegant metaphor), and he'll pardon all his family members. Then, and he is looking into this as well, unlike Nixon who had his successor Jerry Ford pardon him, Trump will try to get away with pardoning himself.

This will go to the Supreme Court and, who knows, with Gorsuch recently nominated by Trump, he might prevail, 5-4. Remember Bush v Gore in 2000. Or then again, he may not.

August 3, 2020--Conspiracy Theories

Sounding agitated, Maureen, who called, said, "You know me, right?"

Rona said, "Yes, for certain. Why do you ask?" For Maureen, who is always unflappable, it's unusual for her to sound frustrated.

"You know I'm a rational person, not inclined to believe anything that's not backed up by evidence?"

"That pretty much describes you," I said.

"Well, I'm beginning to wonder."

Simultaneously, Rona and I said, "Tell us what's going on."

"Do you know what Steve Bannon's up to?"

"Steve Bannon?" surprised, I said, "I haven't heard anything from him or about him for ages."


"That's my point," Maureen said, "He's always so accessible. He loves being in the spotlight. So his disappearing from sight is not like him." 

"And you're thinking?" Rona asked. 

"That he must be up to something not good."

"Like what?" I said.

"I'm thinking he's working on Trump's campaign. Maybe even running it or pulling the strings of those who appear to be in charge."

"Not uninteresting," Rona said.

"He's open about liking chaos, including fulminating it. And what are we seeing? Trump's campaign is all about chaos. He makes everyone crazy, including changing strategies every five minutes, and then puts himself forward as the only one who can solve the problems he created."

"That sounds right to me," Rona said.

"And we wonder when the latest distraction arrives--many of them perversely clever--like creating chaos in Portland which then 'justifies' sending in U.S. troops--we wonder who is coming up with these ideas because Trump clearly is not smart or strategic enough to do so. And he doesn't appear to have anyone on his official staff, including Steven Miller, clever enough to come up with these devious schemes. So, to me, all roads lead to Bannon."

"That's pretty interesting," I said.

"Thank you. But here's what's worrying me."

"What's that?"

"I'm becoming a conspiracy theorist!"

"Yes and no," Rona said, "What you're saying about Steve Bannon is quite plausible. It helps explain a lot of behavior, which is always a good thing when you're theorizing. Often the simplest explanation in plain sight is the best one. So, maybe that will also be true for this."

"I sure hope so," Maureen said, "Being a conspiracy theorist is the last thing I want to become."

Rona said, "But this one about Bannon I like.