August 7, 2020--Deutsche Bank

On July 27, 2017 I posted a piece of speculation about Donald Trump's ultimate denouement. 

As with everything else having to do with him, it will be about the money.

I thought, with the blockbuster piece about Trump's relationship to Deutsche Bank in yesterday's New York Times, I would repost my piece because the paper of record forgot to include one important thing--where the bank's money came from.

Some this is dated but I think still rings true. It also suggests Trump may be one big step closer to an orange jumpsuit 

Here is what I wrote--

No one should be surprised. Least of all Donald Trump. It has been clear for a half year or more where all this is headed.

It's always been about the money.

The denouement will not be about Paul Manafort's money or Michael Flynn's or Jared Kushner's or Ivanka's money, nor even Don Junior's.

It will be about Donald Trump's money.

A good question--if he is so proud of his wealth how come he has refused to reveal his tax filings?

On the simplest level, he has resisted because he lies about how much money he has. He has a lot, about a billion or two, enough for most of us, but not the 5 to 10 billion he has long claimed.

Remember how Marco Rubio's crack during the primary debates about his small hands got under his skin? Well, this is the same sort of thing. Manhood. Size always mattered more to guys than to women.

But, he somehow managed to get elected and reluctantly moved to Washington and into the White House. Back in New York, in his Trump, Inc. operation, which was and still is a mom-and-pop business, he was used to being the only one whose ideas counted and he had no one ever pushing back on him when he went off and did something stupid. Like getting involved with gambling casinos in Atlantic City and Miss Universe pageants.

Over time, with the big boost The Apprentice gave to his image, he effectively became a brand. Selling his name and endorsement to the highest bidders, raking in the licensing money with little effort other than keeping his name and gold-foil life style in public view. Thus, even the parade of girlfriends and wives, as he aged and swelled, ones younger and younger, were a part of that charade.

Zeroing in--

When Trump needed to ante up money for a project or bail himself out of an impending bankruptcy, where do we think he turned for money? Citibank? Chase? Wells Fargo? Goldman Sachs? No chance.

We're talking chop shops like loan sharks, offshore money, and especially money from laundries such as Deutsche Bank, which until a few years ago was a favorite place for Russian kleptocrats to sanitize their dirty lucre.

In 2008, Trump Jr. on the record said that, "Russians make up a pretty disproportionate cross-section of a lot of our assets. We see a lot of money pouring in from Russia."

At least someone in his family is capable of letting the truth slip out.

Even a casual perusal of Trump's tax returns would reveal the sources of his money and income. Would it surprise anyone if we in this way discovered that he engaged in all sorts of shady deals and shenanigans with lots of money coming from Russia?

So when it finally dawned on Trump that special counsel Robert Mueller has the power to demand his tax and other financial documents, something Trump incredibly seems to have begun to pay attention to just this week, bells and whistles went off and that immediately became Trump's line in the sand--he told the New York Times he might fire Mueller if he pressed to scrutinize his or his family's finances.

We know for sure following the money trail is looming. It's Special Counsel 101.

And then, of course, Mueller would also see son Junior's and son-in-law Kushner's tax filings, which would make matters even worse.

What we'd be likely see is the inner financial machinations of a crime family.

Donald Junior is reported to be whining that he can't wait for this presidency to be over.

Well, he may soon get his wish. He may not have to wait an endless three-and-a-half years.

If Junior is unravelling as quickly as it appears, Trump's oldest son, feeling squeezed by the implosion, may follow in the footsteps of one of Bernie Madoff's sons. I can't bring myself to spell this out. If you don't remember the details, you're on your own to look them up.

So, here are the final steps. They will happen quickly because we have a talented and mobilized press corps. Much more so than during Watergate. Trump is getting back in kind for what he dished out to the "fake-news" press. I wouldn't have recommended messing with that sleeping giant.

I suspect he'll skip the firing-Mueller step and move right to the pardons. Sacking Mueller, assuming Trump has the power to do that, would bring down the wrath of not only Democrats (that would be predictable) but also rouse the up-to-now hypocritical Republicans who despise Trump but support his agenda, such as it is.

Thus, Trump has been asking about what pardon powers he has and boasting about it. They are constitutionally wide ranging. He'll pardon Flynn and Manafort, which should keep them from throwing Trump under the bus (elegant metaphor), and he'll pardon all his family members. Then, and he is looking into this as well, unlike Nixon who had his successor Jerry Ford pardon him, Trump will try to get away with pardoning himself.

This will go to the Supreme Court and, who knows, with Gorsuch recently nominated by Trump, he might prevail, 5-4. Remember Bush v Gore in 2000. Or then again, he may not.

February 26, 2018--Jared Kushner In the Soup

If you're thinking that the reason it is taking so long for First Son-in-Law Jared Kushner to receive the security clearance that would allow him to see the top-secret documents Dad is already improvisationally allowing him to see, think again.

It is not just that he and First Daughter Ivanka failed to list meetings with Russians that they "took" or because they forgot to list several hundred of their assets on the forms they were required to fill out, rather it is because it is as the Washington Post reported on Friday--there are high-level concerns about Jared getting his hands on top secret information.

As reported Friday by WaPo there are substantial reasons it has taken more then a year for the FBI to get to this point. With no resolution in sight.

How is Jared supposed to "fix" the Middle East, defeat ISIS, and figure out what to do to get control of Mexico and Venezuela while serving as de facto Secretary of State, not to mention making the federal government more efficient and solving the opioid crisis while keeping his father-in-law from going off the deep end?

This is a rather ambitious job description for Kushner so one would imagine that the FBI would have given it top priority.

I am sure they did and in the process found things so egregious, so troubling that they punted the decision to the White House itself where chief-of-staff Kelly, to whom Jared is supposed to report, is undoubtedly taking illicit pleasure in arranging for his chief rival to twist slowly in the wind.

I got a sense of what concerned the FBI from David Frum's chilling new book, Trumpocracy: The Corruption of the American Republic. Especially the chapter, "Plunder," substantially about the Trump and Kushner money.

One thing son- and father-in-law have in common is frequently hovering close to bankruptcy. Including right now. In Kushner's case the collapse of the 666 Fifth Avenue deal, about which I have already written (January 8th).

This deal alone has plunged Jared into a cascade of personal financial troubles. Perhaps enough for at least three things to result--

First, Jared and the rest of the Kushners go broke. 

No more fancy New York City lifestyle, no more regular tables at the 21 Club, no more holidays in Aspen, and likely no more Ivanka who is unlikely to hang around while her husband is forced to grovel for bailout funding to keep him out of debtors' prison. She's no Huma Abedin.

Second--the groveling part. This includes, as bankripsies often do, involvement with shady types in shiny suits, characters who are only too happy to loan you money if you promise to turn over to them as collateral your first born son, but don't wait around for long before wanting to get paid.

In Kushner's predicament, back to David Frum and the FBI (which more than any person or institution must be relishing the Trump-related agony and desperation), I am feeling certain that their background check discovered his financial situation and shenanigans. In Jared's case I am certain that they unearthed the same sorts of note holders that Frum did--largely international banks that specialize in money laundering. Chinese banks, off-shore banks, Cypriot banks, Deutsche Bank, and of course--closer to home--Russian banks where oligarchs and Putin himself go to launder they filthy lucre. 

The kind of guys, who, if they can't get their hands on your evaporating cash, after working on your knees, want a piece of your behind. In the case of someone like Kushner (and Paul Manafrot) that piece could easily be access to confidential information or levers through which to undermine what's left of our democracy. You can pay back either with cash or state secrets.

Third and finally, Trump World comes crashing down. As I also wrote recently, using my favorite, Ockham's Razor (January 29th--"Reiterating."), ultimately it has been and is all about money. With Kushner's crash proceeding his father-in-law's.
And it won't solve Trump's problem to pardon Kushner and Manafort, among others, because some of their alleged crimes occurred in New York and federal, presidential pardons do not override criminal prosecutions in individual states. 

Be patient, once even many Trump supporters see all the documentary evidence of the colluding with the Russians, in spite of Fox News and the White House crying "fake news," once they see how the coverup and obstruction of justice has been playing out, once Trump "little guy" supporters see, again, hard evidence of the money trail, it will be difficult for Trump to talk his way out.
The system may be working.  

January 8, 2018--666 Fifth

How did I miss this one?

Not able to stop myself from thinking about Trump, his family of co-conspirators, and Robert Mueller, it slipped right by me that son-in-law Jared Kushner is involved in a mega-real estate deal at Fifth Avenue and 52 Street in New York City. A building, in a small way, I helped construct back in the late 50s when I was a sheetmetal worker.

Sheetmetal workers were responsible for installing the heating and air-conditioning systems, the HVAC, mainly through a complex network of ducts mainly fabricated off site from sheetmetal and suspended from the ceilings and through risers that paralleled the elevator shafts. 

I was not that skilled a mechanic and so I spend little time on the installation and more on the bull gang, unloading trucks that brought the factory-built ducts to the site and then getting them to the floors where they were needed by using the outside hoist, or work elevator, affixed to the exterior of the rising building.

I made a lot of money doing this--enough to help pay for college--and through the manual work got myself into the best physical shape of my life. I also made longterm friends and witnessed some horrific events--including a number of fellow workers injured and killed in construction accidents. One of which decapitated Joe Murey who was a member of my work gang. Still, as I look back on my work life it was the best job I ever had.

One bonus was hanging out on the 52nd Street side of the building site during lunch hour where we woofed down huge hero sandwiches and knocked down a few quick cans of beer. The job was adjacent to the 21 Club (Donald Trump's favorite New York place for dinner) and one treat was to see who showed up each day for lunch. My favorite sighting was Mike Todd and his then wife, Elizabeth Taylor. In true construction-worker form we whistled at her and not only did she turn our way to flash us a glamorous smile but walked over to shake our work-soiled hands. 

So how did I miss knowing that the Kushner family, led by Jared, back in 2007 bought the building for $1.8 billion and that they have been struggling ever since to carry out an ambitious $7.5 billion project that includes tearing it down (it's 41 stories tall) and building a new place of twice that height that would include a hotel, luxury apartments, and high-end retail shops. Very Trumpian. 

They have not been able to secure financing and have thus had difficultly meeting debt payments. It seems possible that the Kushners could lose up to a billion on this fiasco.

But here's where it gets more interesting--

To secure financing for additional debt and to carry out the ultimate plan, Jared Kushner has apparently sought the help of business interests in China, Qatar, and Russia. Including likely borrowing laundered Russian money through Deutsche Bank.

No wonder the Kushner and Trumps are in a panic and running scared.

In the meantime, there is my little Tishman Building Zelig experience.

One more thing--unnoticed by me at the time and I assume by the Kushners is the building's street address--666 Fifth Avenue.

The number 666 itself has quite a curious history.

Chapter 13 of the Book of Revelations reads--

Let one with understanding reckon the meaning of the number of the beast, for it is the number of the man. His number is 666.

The "beast" is the antichrist who rises from the sea which represents the nations of the world and thus 666 is the number associated with the antichrist. 

The conjunction between Kushner and Trump and the antichrist, ironically, requires little elaboration. 

January 5, 2018--Trump's End Game

One more prediction for 2018 (and it's a big one)--

For more than a year I've been claiming that much of Donald Trump's erratic behavior is the result of the anxiety and fear that derives from his intimate personal knowledge about the extent of his and his inner circle's colluding with the Russians to tip the election away from Hillary Clinton and, more than anything else, since he is motivated primarily by greed, how he was at the center of a major money laundering operation which also has Russian ties.

Then, of course, there is the cover-up, perhaps the most dangerous of their and his potential felonies.

But money is his pole star. Money laundering is his and his family's specialty. Especially the Kushners. Keep an eye on Trump and Kushner money that was borrowed from the Russians for bogus real estate deals and then subsequently was laundered by Deutsche Bank and the Bank of Cyprus.

Only he knows the full extent of this and, since it is vast scam, it is not surprising that under the emotional strain associated with the exposure of this Ponzi scheme he is unraveling.

Unravelling at a increasing rate as the Mueller investigation closes in on him and his family. 

Thus the panicky reaction to the new Michael Wolff book, Fire and Fury: Inside the Trump White House. Tomorrow, copies will be jumping off the shelves. I preordered one and can't wait to get my hands on it.

The book hit Trump broadside this past weekend as he was concluding his blissful vacation at his beloved Mar-a-Lago and on the golf courses in Palm Beach.

I suspect he felt, 'Who needs this?' I mean, the presidency. 

I have to believe that Melania and Ivanka took him aside while there for a heart-to-heart about all of this. I can hear them pleading--

"You're 71 years old, you eat crap from MacDonald's, you're 50 pounds overweight, you don't exercise, and you haven't had a real checkup in at least 10 years. You're a classic candidate for a stroke or heart attack. 

"Isn't it enough already? You never really wanted to be president, you didn't expect to get elected, you got into the race to boost your brand but here you are after surprising yourself by winning, having to live in that dump of a White House, rather than Trump Tower. You have to deal with the likes of Mitch McConnell when you could be hanging out with your pals in Palm Beach and playing golf every day of the year without getting grief about that from the snarky fake-news corps."

He would be nodding his head. They would continue--

"So here's what we recommend: declare 'Mission Accomplished' (or call it something else) and take a victory lap one last time by racing around the country on Air Force One. You love that plane. Pardon everyone from Flynn and his clueless son to Manafort to Don Junior to Eric to Jared and to me, Ivanka. So I won't be the first female president. I've seen enough about what that's like. You get called 'dumb as a brick.'

"Then, declare your work done and get the hell out of boring Washington. Turn it over to Pence who, if necessary, will pardon you."

I doubt that he said anything in response to Ivanka or Melania. But my prediction is that as he thinks it over he'll take what's behind door number one and pack it in.