November 25, 2019--Move The Goalposts

It's time for Democrats to move on from impeachment. 

Considering Trump's many crimes and misdemeanors, impeachment is the constitutional right thing to do--impeach Trump in the House of Representatives and initiate a trial in the Senate.

But there's the rub. With Republicans in charge of the Senate there is no chance, I repeat, no chance, zero likelihood, that Trump will be voted out of office.

Rather than witnessing an impartial trial, we will experience an attempt to portray Trump as an innocent victim of the Democrats, persecuted by a Dark State "witch hunt," aided and abetted by the "enemy of the people"-- the press.

Senate Majority Leader, Moscow-Mitch McConnell will be in charge. He will make and promulgate the rules (to be fair, as did Adam Schiff and Nancy Pelosi in the House) and people such as Lindsey Graham--chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee--will be in flagrant political ecstasy.

We won't be hearing more from Fiona Hill or anyone like her. Rather it will be left to Devin Nunes to whine to the Senate how Trump was railroaded in the House. Adam Schiff will be assigned by Mitch a small desk by the men's room.

As good as it felt the past two weeks to see young bureaucrats put their careers and perhaps lives at risk to tell the truth about how Trump led the effort to undermine the stirring of democracy in Ukraine to advance his own political agenda, that's how bad it will feel when Chief Justice Rogers gavels the trial to commence. We will hear nothing but conspiracy theories 24/7 even on MSNBC. It will be as if it had morphed into Fox News.

And at the end of the day, Trump will still be in office, his favorabilities will have risen, and the Democrats will be viewed by an increasing number of voters as politically-motivated obstructionists. Defeating Trump next Election Day will be considerably less likely. Reelecting a majority of the new class of Democratic House members will also be more difficult. 

This is why since 2018 when the Democrats gained control of the House Speaker Nancy Pelosi resisted the move to impeach Trump.

But there is a relatively easy way for the Democrats to get out of this pickle and actually gain political standing--move the goal posts from impeachment to censure. 

Get the House to condemn Trump's behavior and move on. Take impeachment off the table. Censuring a sitting president is a big deal and would demonstrate to moderate voters that the Democrats are capable of behaving decisively and moderately.

They can do this as it is possible for one house of Congress on its own to censure colleagues and members of the administration, including the president.

It would also free up the Democratic senators who are seeking the presidential nomination--Senators Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, and Amy Klobuchar. As impeachment "jurors" they would be like hostages in the Senate for at least a month during the height of the primary season. Mitch McConnell will relish muzzling them. And Lindsey will launch investigations into everything from the Bidens to Hillary Clinton's server.

Spare us.

November 20, 2019--The Bidens: It's Spine Time

I'm deep into following the House of Representatives' impeachment hearings. 

One thing that is clear is that more and more of those called to testify are feeling the need to amend their testimony. Including some yesterday. This is all to the good. It gets us closer to the truth and coming clean is good for the soul. It also is good for keeping one from being prosecuted for perjury.

Shouldn't Joe and Hunter Biden be thinking about doing a version of this?

If they have nothing to hide, if everything was above board about Hunter's well-paid work for Burisma, the Ukrainian gas company, to clear the suspicions, wouldn't it be smart to ask to testify? I mean politically smart.

Just ask to show up and answer the questions, including those of Devin Nunes, the ranking member who has embraced every conceivable conspiracy theory.

Swatting him aside would put the lie to this line of paranoia and assure father Joe a clear path to the Democratic nomination. It would also be good for the soul.

And, if he and his son are not telling the whole truth, it would also get that on the record so Democratic voters can move on.

March 2, 2019--New Feature: Saturday's Rats

Viewed from his perspective, after the worst week of Trump's presidency, the wall that counts, the one he built around himself and his family is collapsing.

Michael Cohen's powerful testimony and corroborating evidence, the collapsed summit with Kim Yong-un, his despicable comments about Kim not knowing about the torture and murder of Otto Warmbier, and the story about how Trump overrode his senior advisors to unilaterally grant son-in-law Jared Kushner top secret security clearance is a brief summary of this week's self-inflicted troubles.

Sensing this is the beginning of the end, expect to see how those who claim they would take a bullet for Trump rush for the gangplank.

As a new Saturday feature I will try to chronicle this--"Saturday's Rats."

First deserting the SS Trump is my almost favorite snitch, Devin Nunes.

Numes, chair until January of the House Intelligence Committee (when it comes to him that's an oxymoron) was a very useful butt boy for Trump, passing along to him copies of any incriminating documents he thought Trump could use to defend himself.

For someone famous for skulking around in the shrubbery on the White House grounds so as not to be seen when hand-delivering these documents, at this week's CPAC convening, out of character, he called for the entire Mueller report to be publicly released.

He said--

“I want everything that Mueller did made public. I want every email, everybody that they wiretapped, every warrant that they got.

“I think the White House is going to ultimately have to get involved in declassifying all documents,” Nunes said, adding that he doubts the Justice Department will declassify all the documents, based on its previous reluctance to declassify other documents related to the investigation. 

Expect to see along the way, as things get more dire for Trump, that even Mark Meadows will be pushing his way to the front of the gangplank. And how could I forget Lindsay Graham.

November 7, 2018--The Economy, Stupid

Briefly since I was up all night listening to the election results--

First, I did pretty well with my predictions. 

Beto O'Rourke did lose by about three points (which for a Democrat in Texas is remarkable) and one would think that would end any talk about his president possibilities in two years, but last night on MSNBC there was chat about his running and in this morning's New York Times speculation about his potential candidacy.

Then, by far the biggest headline from the evening's results was the Democrats winning control of the House of Representatives. By a somewhat bigger margin than predicted by most. Adam Schiff, who will become chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, essentially announced that in January there will be wide-ranging investigations of Trump and his minions, including demands that they have access to his tax returns. 

The takeover of the House by Democrats will also assure that Mueller's eventual report will see the light of day. Even if Trump fires everyone associated with the investigation Schiff and his colleagues will have the power to subpoena it and make it public. 

And, one bonus from Schiff's ascension, is that we won't have to pay attention anymore to the departing chairman, Trump funky Devin Nunes.

On the Democratic side there did not appear to be any stars waiting for 2020 to be born. Perhaps Gavin Newsome, who will become California's governor might turn out to be credible. I know nothing about him (all talk about California presidential candidates have thus far centered around Senator Kamala Harris), but as my father would point out if he were still around--he has "presidential hair."

Finally (and then back to bed) though James Carville's insight when it comes to national elections is that it's always the economy, stupid, that was not true last night. It was about healthcare, healthcare, healthcare and immigration, immigration, immigration. And, yes, concern about Trump's abhorrent behavior. A full 30 percent said to vote against him was a major reason why they turned out.

Thinking about going forward, it will be important to see how many white women and young people voted, for whom, and by what numbers. Because by 10:00 am today the 2020 election moves to center stage.

April 12, 2018--Watergate History Lesson

Who knows. 

Before I finish drafting this we may be at war with Syria and Russia; Paul Ryan will have a $5.0-million-a-year job with Goldman Sachs; Devin Nunes will be in line to become the new Speaker of the House; Ron Rosenstein, Jeff Sessions, and Robert Mueller will have been fired; the tariffs we and China have been spatting about will have been rolled back or ramped up; Ron Pruitt will be the new Attorney General; and North Korea will have cancelled the anticipated meeting with Donald Trump. 

And, I almost forgot, Michael Cohen will have "flipped" and will become Mueller's latest star witness. No more "taking a bullet" for Trump for Cohen. However, there will be nothing new to report about Stormy Daniels. 

But the day is still young.

In case we still have a country left when I get up from typing, allow me to again remind those younger than I (which is about everyone) how Richard Nixon's Watergate troubles ended.

As the noose was tightening on him the tapes of White House conversations were subpoenaed by special prosecutor Archibald Cox. Nixon resisted releasing them. He ordered Attorney General Eliot Richardson to fire Cox. He refused and was fired. 

Nixon next ordered Deputy Attorney General William Ruckelshaus, second in command at the Department of Justice, to fire Cox. He too refused and, on the evening of October 20, 1973, was fired.

The Saturday Night Massacre was under way.

Third in line was Solicitor General Robert Bork. Nixon ordered him to fire Cox and, after giving it some thought, ever-ambitious Bork agreed to do so. Cox was fired and quickly cleared out his office. But he did speak to the press and in an impassioned statement asked, "Whether ours shall continue to be a government of laws and not men is now for Congress and ultimately the American people to decide."

Nixon next, with Bork's backing, attempted to thwart the appointment of a new special prosecutor, but the courts ruled that the special prosecutor had the power to prosecute the president and also ruled that Cox had been illegally fired. He thus ordered the president to appoint someone to take Cox's place. 

Reluctantly, Nixon then appointed Leon Jaworski, who continued the investigation in a fair and impartial way and ultimately cooperated with the House of Representative's Judiciary Committee which moved to impeach Nixon.

But before the committee could complete its work Nixon, urged to do so by senior Republican members of Congress, on August 9, 1974, resigned the presidency.

Lesson--

Above all be patient. It took 26 months from the time of the Watergate break in to Nixon's resignation. It took 15 months from the time Cox was appointed and Nixon resigned.

Mueller and his team have been at their investigation for only 11 months. I know most of us would like this work to be completed and Trump back in Trump Tower (assuming the fire is out) or the Metropolitan Correctional Center. But none of this will happen quickly.

I have been saying for some time here that it will all come down to November's midterm election. If the Democrats take control of the House, Trump will be publicly investigated (regardless of Mueller's fate) and soon after that impeached. However, he is unlikely to be found guilty by two-thrids of the 100 senators, but his impeachment alone should lead either to a Nixon-like resignation or, if he seeks reelection, defeat at the polls in November 2020.

Which means, beginning now, that we all have to redouble our efforts to elect Democrats this fall.

Archibald Cox

February 6, 2018--The Nothing-Burger

With the release of Congressman Devin Nunes's pathetic three-and-a-half-page memo about the investigation of Russia's role in our 2016 presidential election, the fact that it is widely considered to be a nothingburger, for Donald Trump it makes matters worse. Much worse.

If it had been a something-burger, a full, well argued and sourced document that called the integrity of the investigation into question, if it provided incontrovertible evidence that the FBI and the Department of Justice were conspiring to remove Trump from office, Trump would not have to lie, claiming, as he did, that it "totally vindicates" him--the evidence for that would speak for itself--he could take a few leisurely victory laps to show the electorate that all along he has been telling the truth while the government has been concocting a case against him, his family, and his inner circle.

He wouldn't need to fire anyone. Even Robert Mueller would have been exposed as corrupt and possibly indictable and would have no choice but to resign in disgrace. 

Trump would not have to pardon anyone--there would be no one to pardon--nor would he be forced to testify. What would there be to question him about? And with Mueller out of the way, no one to do it.

But the fact that the Nunes memo is acknowledged by many to be a "dud," from Trump's perspective it changes everything.

Every hour that goes by, the serious media and the Democrats are chipping away at the memo, exposing more and more of its untruths and intentional omissions. Even a few Republicans have raised questions about its validity.

For example, the person the Trump people have been comfortable having as the fall guy, goofball Carter Page, according to Nunes, turns out to be a bit player in comparison to George Papadopoulos, who, by turning state's evidence, threatens to bring about the Fall of the House of Trump.

Thus, there will be no victory lap for Trump. In fact, Mueller seems to be increasing the pace of his staff's work to get as much done as possible before Trump tries to pull the plug on the investigation.

The shabbiness of the Nunes memo will also put Trump in higher gear. If it doesn't in fact exonerate him, what is he left with to do?

With the clock running out he may accelerate the firing of Rosenstein and Mueller as well as pardon all close to him who are in danger of being indicted. 

This would be the Saturday Night Massacre times ten. 

But with Republicans in the House of Representatives, very much including the now unmasked sycophantic Speaker, Paul Ryan, rolling over for Trump, all the Democrats will see themselves able to do is express outrage, jump up and down, go on MSNBC, and hope to take control of the House of Representatives in November.

What might the public do? Envision mass marches on both sides with some ugly clashes. Shades of the anti-war demonstrations and counter-demonstrations of the 60s and 70s.

The saddest thing is that no matter what Trump might do, he will still have his 35 percent of unquestioning supporters and the whole thing could turn out to be at most a two-week story.

But then again, and this is the scenario I am betting on, Ryan may emerge from his bubble and see his reputation collapsing. If that happens, he will begin to distance himself from Trump--fearing he will lose his speakership in November--which would  make it acceptable for enough Republicans in the House to join with Democrats to act like patriots and not the historical disgraces they currently are. 

There are already a few signs of this, including the fact that yesterday all GOP members of the House Intelligence Committee (what a misnomer) voted to release the Democratic rebuttal to the Munes memo. And with the stock market in danger of crashing that in itself will give the lie to Trump's claim that because of him there is a thriving economy. Remember, it still is the economy, stupid.

February 5, 2018--How Sick Is This?

The Dow Jones Average Friday plunged 666 points. (Note the number.)

Searching for reasons, I found a few--

Since the Devin Nunes memo turned out to be what Bret Stephens in the New York Times called a nothing-burger it is thought that this means it wasn't going to be the get-out-of-jail card Donald Trump's enablers were hoping for. (Talk about a nothing-burger.) If Trump continues to be in peril, it's by definition bad for business.

Then, Alan Greenspan (remember him?) warned that there are currently two bubbles in the financial market--a bond bubble and a stock bubble. That about covers it.

When chairman of the Fed, except when he wasn't, he was considered to be infallible. Partly because of his job but also because, perhaps more important, his words were often intentionally incoherent and thus considered to be as if they were coming directly from the Oracle. As to why incoherent riddles might be considered to be wisdom, it is because the original Oracle's words were in Classic Greek, not Greenspan's metaphoric Greek, as in "It's all Greek to me."

Finally, most put forth as the explanation for the slide in stock values, was the clear evidence that after decades of frustrated waiting, workers are finally seeing an increase in their wages. Up 2.9 percent in January as compared to a year ago.

How sad, how sick is it that what's good for the struggling middle class is bad for business. That's not a nothing-burger. It's a whopper. 

April 7, 2017--Congressional Dye Job

There was something familiar looking about Adam Schiff yesterday morning during his appearance on Morning Joe.

As the ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee he's in high demand these days by the media since the Intel Committee is one of two congressional committees investigating the Trump administration's various Russian involvements.

Though their work is supposed to be confidential, since national security may be at stake, he and his fellow committee members, especially the chairman, Devin Nunes have not been shy about appearing on TV and in some cases inappropriately even thinking out loud that they wouldn't be "surprised" if at the end of the day some people who are apparently involved in dealing less than legitimately with Putin and his people will wind up in jail.

2020 presidential candidate  and committee member Joaquin Castro said as much earlier this week. He got lots of headlines for that as did a number of other Democrats who chimed in. Half the Dems on the committees it seems are also thinking about running for president in four years.

I peered intently at Schiff to see what might have triggered my curiosity about the way he looked. Was it that he reminded me of my Uncle Ben or Mr. Gatti, my 5th grade teacher?

I tried squinting to see if would help.

Then there was the first of the morning's breaking news--under pressure to step aside because of his behaving as a Trump apologist, eager to do his bidding, rather than a more-or-less impartial investigator, Nunes "temporarily"suspending his Russian Connection involvement.

Nunes' picture popped up on the screen.

"That's it!" I said to Rona, who had no idea why I was so excited. "They have the same hair!"

"The same what?"

"Hair. Schiff and Nunes. Look." I pointed at the TV, "Not the same hair but the same color. I mean the same dye job. Isn't that amazing?"

"I'm beginning to be concerned about you," Rona said. "Can we watch something fluffy? I've already had my daily fill of this and I'm worried about you. You're in danger of going off the deep end over Trump and his people. Is there a MASH or Seinfeld rerun to distract us?"

"I think I know why they have the same hair color," I said.

"You can tell me on one condition."

"What's that?"

"That after you do we watch an episode of Married With Children. I hate that show but it always gives you a few laughs, which you desperately need. In fact, the next time you go to see Dr. Heller I want you to talk with him about this."

"This? You mean their hair?"

"No, your obsession with everything having to do with Trump. Maybe there's some medication he can prescribe."

Ignoring that, I asked, "Is this just a coincidence? The both of them having the same color dye? What are the odds of that?

"I wouldn't know and I don't care."

"I don't care but I'm sure I know."

"Lord help me."

"They go to the same barber. And I bet it's the House barber."

"The House barber? The House of Representatives has a barber?"

"More than that. A barber shop and a hair salon for female members. I saw them one time when a congressman I was working with walked me around the Capital and showed me that and their gym and swimming pool and sauna and of course the cafeteria and restaurant. Where things are either free or very low cost."

"So your theory is that Nunes and Schiff go to that barber rather than ones in the districts?"

"Exactly. I can hear them telling the barber 'Give me a Nunes or a Schiff.'"

"Like people used to ask for an Elvis or Farrah." Rona was getting into it.

"I wonder what else our representatives are getting as perks. I know they get a minimum of $174,000 in salary and $250,000 a year for office and travel expenses which means that they effectively fly for free."

"And don't forget the free parking at Reagan Airport. Right by the terminals."

"And pensions that are way beyond what ordinary employees or executives get. I looked that up the other day. After 20 years in office they get $59,000 a year. More than twice what they'd get or a typical retiree would get from Social Security."

"This is making me sick to my stomach," Rona said.

"Congress meets only part of the year and so members get 239 days a year off. They work on many of those days back home, but really."

"Can we change the channel?" Rona pleaded with me.

"Here's my favorite thing--they get platinum health care of course, much of the cost of which is subsidized by, you'll never guess, Obamacare. I'm sure when they repeal and replace it they won't be taking away that subsidy."

"Is it any wonder people who are struggling to get by are made crazy by this?"

"At least if Congress did its job. But one more thing," I said.

"As long as it's the last thing."

"I promise. But back to the hair business. Don't you think that if they didn't have their own hair place in the Capital they would benefit by going to barbershops in their home districts? Barber shops and beauty parlors are great places to stay in touch with constituents. Better than town hall meetings where everyone is screaming and yelling."

"Joaquin Castro was right--they need to be put in jail."

March 30, 2017--What's Up With Devin Nunes?

An otherwise nondescript congressman from the scorching Central Valley in California, Devin Nunes is now perhaps the best known of his 434 colleagues.

He of course is the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, a plum assignment for someone without any intelligence work on his resumé or much political savvy. Running the committee until now he played the game in the traditional bipartisan way operating out of the spotlight and rarely interviewed by the cable news channels. Your basic congressional hack.

Then something snapped.

He's on TV all the time, mostly racing through the House of Representatives fending off reporters hanging out in what appears to be Congress' underground boiler room, junior media types hungry for any snippet from him about his midnight sleuthing on "the White House grounds," his one-on-one meeting with President Trump, his unwillingness to share with committee members new information about the administration's alleged Russian Connection, or why without consulting other committee members he has suspended routine meetings and hearings. In effect shutting down the committee.

No one seems to have a handle on what's going on with him and why he either went James-Bond-style rogue or finds himself overwhelmed by the sudden scope and importance of his work.

In an effort to figure things out, I trotted out my trusty Ockham's Razor to see if that can bring insight to this mess of a situation.

Ockham would say there are at least three explanations for all the seemingly contradictory behavior--

(1) Nunes is way over his head and his underlying incompetence is being exposed. What he up to is not well thought out or strategic.
(2) As an early supporter of Donald Trump's he is striving to protect his leader from being harmed by whatever his committee might unearth.
(3) As a member of the Trump transition team, bedazzled by exposure to the glittery Trump life style and, wanting more of it, he is willing to sacrifice his reputation in order to become a member of the inner circle.
(4) All of the above.

I am inclined to say "all of the above." But with some new spin from what has already been reported and speculated about.

Invoking Ockham here's what I think is going on--

Nunes was born and raised in Tulare right in the middle of the San Joaquin Valley, a town of about 60,000, nearly 60 percent of them Hispanic farm workers. His father owned a modest cattle ranch and young Devin early on thought he would become the third generation of Nuneses to own and run it. So he went to the local community college and studied agriculture.

For someone even half smart--and he is at least that--Tulare was a good place to get away from. Almost 200 miles distant from both LA and San Francisco, he opted to stay close to home and seek ways to escape. After some local politicking he managed to get elected to Congress in 2003 and has been reelected six times, most recently, unopposed.

He was spotted by Speaker John Boehner as an effective fundraiser and was rewarded by being named chair of the Intelligence Committee. When Paul Ryan took over from the deposed Boehner he reappointed him, in part, I suspect, thinking Nunes is Hispanic. And since there aren't a lot of Latinos among the Republican congressional delegation, there he still sits and presides. That is, when the committee meets.

Nunes is in fact of Portuguese dissent, but for the GOP, this is close enough.

Then there was the invitation to join the transition team and with that came his exposure to the Russian Connection explosion.

Can you imagine what it must have been like for someone like Nunes from Tulare to be welcomed into Trump's gilded world?

Walls literally of gold; a wife and daughter looking like Melania and Ivanka; the opportunity to talk with the legendary Midas about potential cabinet appointments; and, closer to the current situation, to assist son-in-law Jared in talking with dozens of foreign leaders calling into Trump Tower to congratulate the Big Guy and to begin to seek diplomatic deals.

These apparently were Nunes' transition assignments. Heady work for someone who had never before been in any spotlight or seen the lights of Broadway.

Soon thereafter he and we learned from FBI director James Comey that there is an on-going investigation about potentially improper relationships between Trump associates, Russian oligarchs and diplomats, and Russian intelligence officers.

He and we also learned that there may have been collusion between some Trump associates and Russians who were busy hacking into the Clinton campaign in a effort to tip the election to Trump.

But as chair of the Intelligence Committee, Nunes likely learned a lot more than this barest of outlines about the investigations that are underway. He likely knows the unmasked names of those Trump associates who were picked up incidentally during FBI surveillance; he may have seen that Trump himself is a target; and, most perilous from Nunes' perspective, he may have learned that his own name appears in some of these investigative intercepts.

He, after all, might have spoken with people from Eastern Europe and, who knows, if he was used by Trump people as a dupe, even to a Russian or two. Maybe even a spy.

To get him implicated this way would assure he wouldn't be eager as Intelligence Committee chair to look too closely into what was really going on with and among Trump and his people. A compromised Nunes could provide some insurance or cover for implicated Trump operatives.

In the aggregate, especially his own potential involvement in things he shouldn't have been exposed to could easily explain his erratic and panicky-seeming behavior.

Too conspiratorial minded? Perhaps.

But who would have thought the Russians were up to sabotaging Hillary Clinton's campaign and who would have imagined that Trump's campaign manager was on a key oligarch's payroll to the tune of $10 million a year?

At the moment, I like Ockham's answer.