September 16, 2019--Trump's Four-Step Program

Take the tariffs as an example of a political strategy Trump employs with great aplomb and consequence.

During the 2016 campaign he stressed two things more than anything else--the Wall, how he would build it and Mexico would pay for it--and trade with China--how they were taking advantage of American naiveté and as a result surpassing us in economic growth. They were stealing our intellectual property and the Chinese government was unfairly subsidizing the cost of the expansion of their manufacturing sector. We, on the other hand, were experiencing a chronically stalled economy and ballooning trade deficits.

He said that unlike his predecessors he would confront the Chinese directly and fight back by using every trick and tool at his disposal. Among them, first and foremost, tariffs.

As the initial step he talked tough, boasting how he would take on the Chinese and force them to amend their ways or face crippling tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of manufactured goods and agricultural products.

The Chinese did not knuckle under. Instead, they announced retaliatory tariffs of their own. In response Trump, as the next step, ramped up the rhetoric, including personal attacks on Xi Jinping, China's president for life.

Still the Chinese did not back down. As a consequence the American stock market plunged, attracting Trump's attention. He had represented the previously soaring market as evidence that his economic policies were working. If the market tanked, not far behind would be Trump's reelection chances.

As a result, as the third step, he began to soften his position. To back off. He ratcheted back his criticism of Xi and began to hint that he would hold off on imposing tariffs until the end of the holiday shopping season. And just last week he announced that perhaps tariffs aren't necessary after all since both the Chinese and he are interested in making a deal. Not so between the lines was the implication that that deal might not require tariffs.

In this final move of the Trumpian four-step, he will soon take credit for getting the Chinese to retreat in the face of a crisis that he himself created and from which he, not they, is doing the backing down. 

The Chinese government's recent announcement that they will resume importing soybeans will be cited as evidence by Trump that they are capitulating, while in truth he is.

So, he begins by initiating a crisis which, when it starts to spin out of control, he "solves" by abandoning his own positions while at the same time taking credit for doing so as if that was the plan all along. 

If I have this right, those who want to depose Trump need to understand how this strategy works and figure out how best in real time to counter it. It's his most powerful tool and we have to expose and resist it, jiu jitsu-style, by turning his own strength against him.

August 30, 2019--Trump's Second Thoughts

If I believed he had first thoughts I might feel a bit optimistic that Trump is having second thoughts about his ill-begotten China tariff policy which, if implemented, would drag the global economy down to the same level England will shortly experience after they Brexit.

For weeks Trump has been in full Twitter as he excoriated China and its leaders and how they dishonestly manage their economy. All to our disadvantage, Trump has been fulminating.

But then last Friday when the Dow Jones Average shed 700 points Trump hit the panic button. He has been using the Dow as his personal barometer of how well the economy has been doing on his watch. 

Not so good the bears were now saying. Talk of inflation was also in the air. Not the kind of economic news any president wants to run on when seeking reelection.

And so he had second thoughts. 

When asked about the tariffs during the G-7 meeting in France he said that sure he is having second thoughts. He has them all the time about everything. And "that's a good thing." 

It is easier, of course, to have multiple thoughts about everything if you don't believe in anything other than your own wellbeing. 

But as with so much, it depends on the second thoughts. To rethink engaging in a ruinous trade war, having real second thoughts is a good thing. With emphasis on "real." 

What is in fact underway with China is not anything resembling normal negotiations or diplomacy but rather a play on Trump's part to enhance his domestic political standing. Period.

Here's how it is working with the tariffs but it equally applies to how he approaches background checks or immigration. Actually, with Trump how it applies to everything.

He's a master of having it both ways, or even more than both ways. In his case, this is easy to get away with since his supporters (a shrinking pool polls are now showing) are low-information voters (I'm trying to be kind) and as such are not as concerned as evidence-based voters when it comes to flip-flops and contradictions and facts.

For Trump's people he is incapable of flip-flopping or acting inconsistently. Wherever he says, whatever he does is by definition true and consistent. If it comes from him, truth is not the issue. Though in a perverse way it is because, ex cathedra, whatever he says or does is or becomes the truth.

Then there are direct political advantages for him to having multiple thoughts about the same thing--it gives his believers (and  I consider them believers) more to embrace, more to accept, more rituals and incantations by which to be guided.

So, when it comes to tariffs some of his supporters can be for them while others can oppose them, all the while both being for HIM. Which after all is the point.

June 1, 2018--Jack: Base-Ball

"I don't want to talk about politics," Jack said, waving us off before we could even say hello after running into him in on a perfect morning in downtown Damariscotta.

"I unfriended half my Facebook friends because of politics," he said. I suspected that included me since I haven't seen any postings from him for at least two months. 

"I'm just trying to get the renovation work done on my house and want to lead a calm life. The politics talk has been making me crazy."

I said, "I understand, but you know it's your own fault." He looked at me skeptically and tried to walk on. I trailed after him. "How can you literally run away from the discussions you initiated for months? Years?"

"Like I said," he said with his back half turned away, "I'm through with talking. I want to concentrate on living."

"I'm not blaming Trump's election of you," I said, "But you bear some responsibility. You talked him up for months before he ran and after he beat the odds and won the nomination, all you wanted to talk about was Trump, Trump, Trump. You remember--'your boy?'"

"I need to get back to work," he said but stopped racing ahead and turned toward me, slowing down so I could keep up with him. I'm a little wobbly on me feet, he's full of energy.

"So are you having a bit of a change of heart?" I suspected this might be why he didn't want to talk and had unfriended so many people. Avoidance. Feeling, perhaps, that he was in fact partly responsible for Trump's election but was feeling some disenchantment.

"I don't agree with everything he says or does. Nobody does. But I do agree with some of his issues."

"Some? That surprises me. I would have thought from our conversations that you'd be a happy camper. But give me some examples of things with which you agree and especially those with which you disagree."

"I believe in the tariffs. All around the world they're taking advantage of us. Even our so-called friends  Europe, Canada, and of course Mexico. They're killing us. Especially the Chinese. So he's right now moving, in fact today, to impose them. On steel and aluminum. He promised to do that during the campaign. And by the way, one thing you'll have to agree about--he is good at keeping his campaign promises."

"Even the crazy ones like tariffs. Most Republicans don't agree with them," Rona said. She had caught up with us. "They believe in the free market. That it will take care of everything, including inequality, if the government stops trying to manage the economy. Conservative politicians and economists say this. For every job saved by these kinds of tariffs three down the supply chain are lost."

"We'll see how it works out," Jack said, avoiding eye contact. But he made no effort to move on.

"You really want a trade war with China just when we need them to help us with North Korea?"

"The Chinese are smart. That can do two things at at the same time. Like walk and chew gum. As long as they see it to be in their best interest."

"Speaking of the Chinese," Rona pressed on, "How are you feeling about all those million-dollar trademarks the Chinese recently awarded First Daughter Ivanka? Just days before Trump went against all advise to prop up that Chinese telecommunications firm, ZTE, that everyone, including Republicans, say is a threat to our national security. This feels like play for pay to me."

"Not my favorite thing," Jack mumbled.

"Anything else not your favorite thing?" I poked him, "You said that there are things Trump is doing that you disagree with."

"I'm not sure he should be meeting with the North Koreans. I mean, do you think they're going to give up their nuclear bombs just because Trump acts nice to them and agrees to meet? I doubt it. I think Kim and his henchmen are very smart and are looking to buy time while finishing the work to build missiles that can reach America. They did the same thing with Clinton, Bush, and Obama. Our presidents thought they were making progress with the current Kim's father all the while they cheated and perfected their nukes and missiles."

"So why do you think Trump seems so eager to take a deal?"

"You mean other than winning the Peace Prize?" I nodded. "It's all about his base. People like me," Jack fessed up, "To appeal to them, us, by moving down the checklist of his campaign promises. We talked about that already. He's doing everything he can to get his people to turn out in November and vote. To try to keep the majority in Congress. Especially the House because if he can turn that tide or blue wave around he won't be impeached."

"I agree with that," I said. "You might think about it as base-ball."

Jack moaned, "What a terrible pun. But I do agree. It's all about them. And me. At the moment I've had it about up to here. I'm focused on getting my house painted."

"A lot of people on both sides are concentrating on their houses. On their lives. They, we, are also fed up with everything political. We need a break. Distractions," Rona said, "But those of us who want to see things change in Washington had better not be passive and withdraw from the battle. Tending to our gardens. Our future is at stake."

"I would agree with that," Jack said, "But about the specifics we still disagree. Though I'm not happy with everything. That I'll admit. I'm not in the same place I was 18 months ago. Maybe one day we'll meet in the middle."

"As long as it's my side of the middle," Rona said.

Jack reached out to hug her and then ran off.

Damariscotta