March 19, 2019--Two Predictions

For the Democratic presidential nomination I predict it will come down to three finalists--

In third place, Kamala Harris; the runner up will be Bernie Sanders; and the winner--Joe Biden (assuming he cuts out the rapidly wearing-thin coy act and gets in the race).

Biden will select Harris to be his running mate and they will go on to defeat Trump or Mike Pence.

Can we vote now?

Second prediction--

The Mueller report is about to land and, as a courtesy, the special counsel informed Trump's attorneys that he and members of his family are about to be indicted. Trump as an un-indicted co-conspirator.

The FBI will not break into Eric's, Don Junior's, or Jared's homes because as big-game hunters the sons' places are likely armed to the teeth with elephant guns. They will thus be invited to turn themselves in by the end of the month.

So Trump will be faced with pressure to pardon them and perhaps Paul Manafort and others while he's at it. To obviate this, we will learn that Mueller has referred their cases and turned over the evidence he has amassed to the pardon-proof prosecutors of the New-York-City-based Court of the Southern District of New York.

These impending arrests have Trump crazed, off his pins, and thus he has been launching a record number of vitriolic tweets, including two this weekend again about John McCain and five about suspended Fox News personality, Janine Piro. In total, a clinically-concerning 50. 

Further evidence of his desperation is the fact that he and Melania went to church last Sunday.

If there is a just God, that will not help.

May 25, 2018--What Is He Up To?

It has been more than a month since I attempted to sum up what he is up to. Trump. Donald Trump.

At the time I said it was all about the Russians, money, and sex, with all three interconnected.

This is still the case.

Russia's agenda is easy to figure out--Vladimir Putin personally is reputed to be worth perhaps as much as $200 billion, with a B. Even more than Amazon's Jeff Bezos. Putin's oligarchic henchmen, who cut him in on every shady deal, if all their money were totaled, are worth at least another $100 bill more. Much of this money is hidden in various Western and U.S. assets like billion dollar condos in New York City and one-off loans to corrupt and desperate businessmen who do not have easy access to legitimate lending sources.

To protect all of this the Russians need compliant political leadership which will not allow too much snooping around in their shifty affairs. 

The best way for the Russians to assure compliant leadership is to have something on those leaders. Something like evidence that that leadership colluded with the Russians to covertly undermine the election chances of that leadership's political opponent. 

Also, something like having loaned money on "generous" terms with no questions asked to bail out that leader with dark money which was pre-laundered by Putin and his billionaire business partners. 

And then, to assure compliant leadership, it would be good to have something like very incriminating tidbits of gossip that would be devastating to that leader if it suddenly showed up on "Page Six" or CNN. Something like payoffs to adult film stars and sex tapes of that leader cavorting with prostitues of Russian vintage.

In our case didn't the younger of that leader's adult sons back in 2008, at a public meeting that was taped, casually mention that, "We have all the funding we need out of Russia"?

And didn't the older son--Junior--add, "We see a lot of money pouring in from Russia"?

Shouldn't this be played nightly to remind us that what I listed above is not just the product of a fevered imagination? But, I am not naive, that's another story.

Because of all this what that leader, Trump, is up to now is totally focused on the November elections. Because if the Democrats take control of the House of Representatives, come January 2019, the House Judiciary Committee will initiate impeachment proceedings with Trump as a result likely to be impeached since only a simple majority is required. 

(Even if in the unlikely case the Democrats were to take control of the Senate Trump will not be convicted and removed from office because that requires a supermajority, 67 of 100 votes.)

But "just" being impeached will mean the effective end of Trump's presidency and his life as he knows it. To be a loser, to him, is as bad as it gets.

Since Trump is obsessively focused on November expect him to do everything he can to feed his base and motivate them to turn out and vote for Republican candidates.

Thus we are currently seeing Trump and his enablers doing everything they can to feed the conspiratorial narrative that appeals to his most passionate and activated supporters, including claiming that what is underway is a partisan "witch hunt." That the entire justice system and the media are corrupt and colluding to bring him down.

We should pay attention to this as Trump is an expert when it comes to collusion.

Then, if all else fails there is the Gotterdammerung scenario where Trump goes up in flames and brings the metaphorical house down on all of us.

January 25, 2018--Mueller's "Whitewash"

I have a Facebook friend who has been consistently pessimistic about everything involving Donald Trump and the fate of the world. Among other things he expects to see nuclear war with North Korea breaking out this year.

He is very angry and may be right on all counts as he is smart, successful, and well informed.

Here's a recent, slightly edited example from his postings--

I'm now worried that Mueller is going to do a whitewash. I cannot understand why he hasn't brought in Trump's lying son or Kushner and his wife. At first I thought it was because he knew if he did Trump would fire him. But now I don't know. They all need to go to jail if not for lying than for money laundering and tax evasion. They must be deterred from ever seeking public office. I'm worried.

Thinking about this and the list of witnesses Mueller has interviewed and is planning to seek testimony from, it is curious that the Kusners and Trump's sons are not on the list. Trump himself, though, clearly appears to be.

Traditionally with investigations and prosecutions of this kind, where there may be collusion, obstruction of justice, and conspiratorial behavior, prosecutors work their way up the witness food chain. From, in this case, the likes of George (Coffee Boy) Papadopoulos to Paul Manafort to Michael Flynn to Jeff Sessions to Steve Bannon and then on to members of Trump's inner-inner circle, including ultimately the president and his potentially implicatable family members.

So what is Mueller's logic of seemingly not seeking testimony from Trump's sons, daughter, and beloved son-in-law?

I've been struggling to make sense of these curious omissions and have finally come to what I now see to be very clever. This should have been apparent to me sooner as Mueller is nothing if not clever.

The special counsel is intentionally not planning to include the children in his investigation and thus will not charge them in his ultimate findings.

Keeping his eye on the big picture--Donald Trump and what he did that is potentially indictable or impeachable in order to cleanse the system, Mueller does not want to incite Trump even more than he is fulminating at present.

Mueller suspects that if he moves against any of the children, Trump will go off the rails and immediately pardon them, disband Mueller's team, and fire Attorney General Sessions and Mueller himself, precipitating a constitutional crises that will make Watergate look no more troubling than a parking ticket.

As a backup to a version of likely mass firings reminiscent of the Watergate Saturday Night Massacre, in addition, the main thing from a Mueller perspective, is to get enough work completed, enough evidence double and triple checked, enough of the mosaic of evidence pulled together into a coherent and convincing narrative, and to insure enough channels are in place to leak all of this to the public and Congress if it hits the fan before he completes his work. 

Mueller wants to make it certain that Americans get the full report of his findings. To, if necessary, leak them so no matter what Trump does to him and his staff, the truth will out.

The bottom line for the investigation and for us is what Trump knew and then did. If our democracy is to survive we need to know the peril in which we have been so that we can recover what has already been lost. Everything Mueller does should be viewed in this critical light.