April 20, 2018--Trump's End Game

Many of us have been comforted by the belief that even if Robert Mueller is fired and his report gets squelched, even if President Trump pardons 20 or more people, everyone from son-in-law Jared Kushner to Paul Manafort to Michael Flynn and especially his personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, all or most of them would still be prosecutable by state attorney generals such as New York's Eric Schneiderman for violating state law because presidential pardons pertain only to federal law.

For example, if Cohen secured a home equity loan from a New York bank, claiming it was to renovate his apartment but then used it to buy Stormy Daniel's silence, he might have committed bank fraud and thus could be pursued by Schneiderman.

Well, it may turn out, not so much.

Just two days ago the New York attorney general asked Governor Andrew Cuomo and the state legislature to pass a new law to cover a potential loophole in the current law that might not allow the state to prosecute anyone who had received a blanket federal pardon by a president. That to do so might be a technical form of double jeopardy.  

A quick analysis of how possible it would be to pass such a law suggests it could be quite unlikely. Though the New York Senate has a slim Democratic majority it is hard to believe that it is solid enough to go along with Schneiderman's request.

And so . . . 

In this circumstance, "and so . . ." is not very comforting.

Also on Wednesday, at his press conference in Florida with Japan's prime minister Abe Trump, Trump was asked if he is going to fire deputy attorney general, Ron Rosenstein, or Robert Mueller. His response, "Well, they're still here."

They are, and more germane, so is he. Trump will continue to be here, he is gambling, even as the circle of protection closes in on him.

Here's how that might work--

Of course he pardons everyone in sight who has been investigated, questioned, deposed, or indicted by Mueller's people. That could include pardoning himself  

Then he fires everyone in sight associated with the Justice Department (Rosenstein, Sessions, Mueller) and in the federal southern district in New York City where the Michael Cohen case now resides.

Then all the Trump-associated lawyers move to shut down the possibility of any state attempting to prosecute him or any of his people via state law, claiming that would constitute double jeopardy.

There of course would be a firestorm of outrage. A "constitutional crisis" (whatever that means). All but Fox News and the right-wing crazies on talk radio would seethe, investigate, and run six-inch high banner headlines decrying these step toward a tyrany. And it would be that. A big step in that direction.

Some would see this scenario to be unlikely. Trump would instantly become the most reviled president in history. His ego is such that he wouldn't willingly take on all the abuse that would be heaped upon him. He'd rather take his chances. This could include impeachment, though he wouldn't be convicted. 

Most constitutional lawyers say that sitting presidents can't be criminally indicted. Couple that with the knowledge that the two presidents who have been impeached (Nixon, though he came close, never was) were not convicted and tossed out of office by the Senate. 

Thus, in Trump's mind there is a case to be made for standing pat. For letting things play out. In fact, Bill Clinton became more popular after being impeached. Andrew Johnson is a whole other story.

Trump has already been more fully exposed (almost literally) then any other president. ("Best sex ever!") He perversely seems to thrive on being humiliated. It's the old story of not caring what's said about you as long as they spell your name correctly and keep the spotlight on you.

So, he could be thinking, ride it out. How long will members of Congress go on cable news and rail about him and what he is bringing down upon the country? More than two weeks? I doubt it.

And so there he might continue to sit. Still with Air Force One available to whisk him back and forth to Mar-a-Lago. And he'll continue to be commander in chief, having his hands on all those terrible toys.

I know this is darkly pessimistic. But if any of it is true we have to face it and deal with it.

So here then is the good news--

THIS SCENARIO IS IN OUR HANDS TO RESIST AND OVERCOME.

By voting first in November and then in 2020. 

It really isn't that difficult. We don't need to take up arms. We just need to vote and get everyone we know to do so.

If the Democrats take over the House, investigations and articles of impeachment will follow quickly. If Democrats gain control of the Senate, though there will not be enough of them even with a few courageous Republicans to convict him--that requires a two-thirds vote--but Trump will be effectively neutered. That will get us safely to 2020 when he will be eminently defeatable. As long as we don't get stupid and nominate someone sure to lose. A list of those to follow one day soon. Hint--it includes Bernie and Warren.

Then the rebuilding will begin. Don't forget, we fought a Civil War that tore the country apart. But we survived and emerged stronger than ever.

Eric Schneiderman

April 14, 2108--Wagging the Dogs

I tend not to be conspiratorial minded, but these days I am hard-pressed to maintain this posture.

I mean, is it a coincidence that the military action we are taking against Syria seems to be occurring at the same time as James Comey's book is about to be published?

What better way is there to keep the former FBI director's book off the front page then stumbling into a potential war with Russia?

Is it a coincidence that President Trump was egged-on to take a very tough position on Syria by British Prime Minister Theresa May who is also attempting to keep her collapsing political fortunes off the front pages? 

They both may have personal interest in wagging the dogs of war.

And why, all of a sudden, was former Vice President Dick Cheney's chief of staff, Scooter Libby, pardoned by Donald Trump? Not just, I suspect, as a gesture to the base who feel Scooter was persecuted and prosecuted for political reasons by a former special counsel, Patrick Fitzgerald? Forget for the moment that it was during a Republican administration, during George W. Bush's presidency that he was appointed and that Fitzgerald, like Mueller, is a lifelong Republican. 

And where else besides Fitzgerald have I heard anything recently about a "special counsel"? 

Anyone picking up anything about someone called "Robert Mueller"? What might be happening with him and the person he reports to, Deputy Attorney General Ron Rosenstein?

Also, could it be that the timing of the Libby pardon is an unplanned coming together by chance of these incidents?

Or is Libby's pardon a signal to those already indicted by Mueller that if they hang tough and do not turn on their boss pardons down the line await? Is Paul Manafort paying attention?

Then though I am relieved that initial reports indicate our military strike in Syria was tightly targeted and "moderate" (the way this morning's New York Times described it) is the timing and confluence of activities merely coincidental?

Chance, coincidence are always possibilities; but Trump, who we must agree, if nothing else, has thus far figured out how to live a life in which he many times has "gotten away with murder" (until now a figure of speech) in both his private and professional life may be at it again. 

Things are looking quite bleak for Trump right now, especially the threats to him from Comey's published accusations and the ramped-up investigation of his "personal lawyer," Michael Cohen, that nothing emanating from Trump is likely being left to chance. 

Scooter Libby

January 5, 2018--Trump's End Game

One more prediction for 2018 (and it's a big one)--

For more than a year I've been claiming that much of Donald Trump's erratic behavior is the result of the anxiety and fear that derives from his intimate personal knowledge about the extent of his and his inner circle's colluding with the Russians to tip the election away from Hillary Clinton and, more than anything else, since he is motivated primarily by greed, how he was at the center of a major money laundering operation which also has Russian ties.

Then, of course, there is the cover-up, perhaps the most dangerous of their and his potential felonies.

But money is his pole star. Money laundering is his and his family's specialty. Especially the Kushners. Keep an eye on Trump and Kushner money that was borrowed from the Russians for bogus real estate deals and then subsequently was laundered by Deutsche Bank and the Bank of Cyprus.

Only he knows the full extent of this and, since it is vast scam, it is not surprising that under the emotional strain associated with the exposure of this Ponzi scheme he is unraveling.

Unravelling at a increasing rate as the Mueller investigation closes in on him and his family. 

Thus the panicky reaction to the new Michael Wolff book, Fire and Fury: Inside the Trump White House. Tomorrow, copies will be jumping off the shelves. I preordered one and can't wait to get my hands on it.

The book hit Trump broadside this past weekend as he was concluding his blissful vacation at his beloved Mar-a-Lago and on the golf courses in Palm Beach.

I suspect he felt, 'Who needs this?' I mean, the presidency. 

I have to believe that Melania and Ivanka took him aside while there for a heart-to-heart about all of this. I can hear them pleading--

"You're 71 years old, you eat crap from MacDonald's, you're 50 pounds overweight, you don't exercise, and you haven't had a real checkup in at least 10 years. You're a classic candidate for a stroke or heart attack. 

"Isn't it enough already? You never really wanted to be president, you didn't expect to get elected, you got into the race to boost your brand but here you are after surprising yourself by winning, having to live in that dump of a White House, rather than Trump Tower. You have to deal with the likes of Mitch McConnell when you could be hanging out with your pals in Palm Beach and playing golf every day of the year without getting grief about that from the snarky fake-news corps."

He would be nodding his head. They would continue--

"So here's what we recommend: declare 'Mission Accomplished' (or call it something else) and take a victory lap one last time by racing around the country on Air Force One. You love that plane. Pardon everyone from Flynn and his clueless son to Manafort to Don Junior to Eric to Jared and to me, Ivanka. So I won't be the first female president. I've seen enough about what that's like. You get called 'dumb as a brick.'

"Then, declare your work done and get the hell out of boring Washington. Turn it over to Pence who, if necessary, will pardon you."

I doubt that he said anything in response to Ivanka or Melania. But my prediction is that as he thinks it over he'll take what's behind door number one and pack it in.

October 30, 2017--Mueller's First Moves

It is being widely reported that special counsel Robert Mueller is about to announce his first indictments. Perhaps as early as Monday.

Everyone is expecting that those charged will include Paul Manafort and Michael Flynn. I am expecting them to be at the top of the list.

But look for two other indictments, much higher profile and more incendiary--Donald Trump Jr. and son-in-law Jared Kushner.

A tip off about the latter is the fact that Kushner for a couple of months has been largely invisible. I have been speculating about his absence (as well as his wife Ivanka's). My first take was that they are separating themselves from Donald Trump Senior in large part not to be dragged down with him. Perhaps, based on this, there are other reasons Jared is nowhere to be found. Maybe because he is about to be arrested, fingerprinted, and soon to be tried minimally for perjury. 

What next--

Manafort and Flynn to save their skins will decide to cooperate with prosecutors. If they do, this will further jeapodize all Trumps, likely including the president.

And then?

Trump and his Fox News friends will accelerate their campaign to undermine the objectivity of the Mueller investigation. Mainly by trying to tie collusion with the Russians to Hillary Clinton. That won't work.

And so--

Look for Trump to pardon all involved. There is no way he will stand by and sacrifice his children. This is not the Old Testament.

And, he will attempt to fire Mueller.

Will it work?

Trump will not be impeached much less tossed out of office by the Republican controlled-Senate or the 25th Amendment.

And, though I do not understand all the legal moving parts, there is some credible opinion that all of these folks can be pursued by prosecutors in New York where any number of potential crimes may have been committed. If so, the presidential power to pardon would not work for New York based crimes.

Stay tuned. This week will be historically interesting.

Robert Mueller

July 26, 2017--"I Know You're Going Crazy"

Skipping the hello, that's what Jack said.

"I'm sure you're calling out of concern."

"Of course. You know, 'Do unto others' and all that. I'm a very compassionate fellow. I know you're an atheist, but even you know about the Golden Rule." Chuckling, he sounded especially chipper.

"I'm not an atheist and if you're calling to torture me just tell me so I can hang up."

"Don't hang up. Really, don't. I know you're very upset and since I actually like you I want to share some things with you that might make you feel better."

"Share away, but I doubt it. And I'm busy." I really wasn't, but I was very upset. Not crazy, but almost.

"It's about the pardons, right, that Trump was talking about over the weekend?" I didn't say anything, but Jack knows me well enough to know what was making me crazy. "OK, no need to say a word. Just listen. I'm about to enlighten you. About how my boy operates and what's behind this latest flap."

I may have mumbled. In any case, he said, "Let's start with Jeff Sessions and then we'll move on to the pardons."

At that I did mumble something incoherent. "Good," he said, "you're still on the line and from the sound of you presumably alive." He liked that. "I read what you wrote on Saturday. That's how I knew you were upset. You never write anything on Saturday. Am I right?" I managed not to utter a sound. "About how Trump seemingly just figured out--as if he's that out of it--the connection between Sessions recusing himself from the Russia stuff and the Mueller appointment. If he hadn't recused himself, he would have been able either not to appoint a special prosecutor or if he did to find someone who would go easy on Trump. Including not subpoenaing his tax records. Because you're right. If there's a smoking gun in this it's about, as you put it, the money. Donald Trump money."

"You read my stuff?" I broke my silence.

"Every day. Even on Saturday if you post something. But though you wrote about how this is unfolding you didn't give Trump enough credit for thinking three moves in advance. Like a chess player. Sessions did recuse himself. That's a done deal. And because he did so his deputy secretary, Rod Rosenstein, is the one in charge of Mueller. Rosenstein is the one who would have to do the firing. But if Trump can get Sessions to resign, and I see that happening in a few days or at most a week or two, Trump appoints someone else who isn't recused who then takes control of the investigation. He doesn't even have to fire Rosen-whatever.  The new attorney general would do the firing."

I let him continue, "I know you're skeptical that Trump could find someone to do that because he or she wouldn't want to ruin his reputation. But remember how Nixon, who was in even more do-do, got Robert Bork to file special prosecutor Archibald Cox? You can always find someone to do anything. Even commit a murder. Just ask the Clintons," he paused, "Of course about that I'm joking. . . . Sort of."

"That would be the end of Trump," I said.

"Oh, really? People thought he was dead 20 times during the campaign from slurring John McCain to the pussy business to saying he could shoot someone and it wouldn't make a difference. But there he is in the Oval Office."

"This is crazy," I said.

"All right, let's forget Sessions and Mueller because Trump may not want to mess with them, especially with Mueller who is equally respected by Republicans and Democrats. But he floats these kinds of ideas out there through his tweets as versions of trial balloons. To see how they go down and if they do to follow through."

"You're exhausting me," I said.

"Five more minutes," Jack promised, "Let's move on to the pardons. At the end of last week as if out of the blue he began talking about them. I think it was the Washington Post that reported about that, that he was exploring with his lawyers what his pardon powers are. And then over the weekend, again by tweets, he signaled he has wide latitude even to pardon family members--did you hear that Jared, Ivanka, and Junior? He even said he believes he has the power to pardon himself."

"I wrote about all of this on Saturday. And now you're parroting it back to me. I thought you had something new to say."

"I'm getting to that."

"Please, I'm tired of all this. Which I know is part of the point. To get people to give up in exasperation."

"But in what you wrote you didn't say why he began to talk about pardons."

"True."

"So here's my point. Why I called. He did it to preview his thinking about pardons. To have them batted about for a few days in the press so that when he finally begins to issue them it's no longer breaking news. Half the people who are out to lunch will think he already pardoned everybody and will blame the liberals and the media for picking on him again. The now familiar FAKE NEWS defense. So he takes a few days of heat, the ground prepared by his previewing his thinking, and then everyone will move on to something else. Likely something he does that's intentionally outrageous to help change the subject. Like bombing North Korea."

"What?" I shouted, "Bombing North Korea?"

"About that I'm half joking," Jack said, which didn't reassure me, "But at changing the subject he's a certifiable genius. I mean, he does that two, three times a day."

"To me," I said, "he's a certifiable something else."

"Have it your way," Jack said, "You've been wrong about him before. Actually, almost always." He roared with laughter and hung up the phone.

July 22, 2017--Imploding

No one should be surprised. Least of all Donald Trump. It has been clear for a half year or more where all this was headed.

It's always been about the money.

The denouement will not be about Paul Manafort's money or Michael Flynn's or Jared Kushner's or Ivanka's money, nor even Don Junior's.

It will be about Donald Trump's money.

A good question--if he is so proud of his wealth how come he has refused to reveal his tax filings?

On the simplest level, he has resisted because he lies about how much money he has. He has a lot, about a billion or two, enough for most of us, but not the 5 to 10 billion he has long claimed.

Remember how Marco Rubio's crack during the primary debates about his small hands got under his skin? Well, this is the same sort of thing. Manhood. Size always mattered more to guys than to women.

But, he somehow managed to get elected and reluctantly moved to Washington and into the White House. Back in New York, in his Trump, Inc. operation, which was and still is a mom-and-pop business, he was used to being the only one whose ideas counted and he had no one ever pushing back on him when he went off and did something stupid. Like getting involved with gambling casinos in Atlantic City and Miss Universe pageants.

Over time, with the big boost The Apprentice gave to his brand, he effectively became a brand. Selling his name and endorsement to the highest bidders, raking in the licensing money with little effort other than keeping his name and gold-foil life style in the public eye. Thus, even the parade of girlfriends and wives, as he aged and swelled up, ones younger and younger, were a part of that charade.

Zeroing in--

When Trump needed to ante up money for a project or bail himself out of an impending bankruptcy, where do we think he turned for money? Citibank? Chase? Wells Fargo? Goldman Sachs? No chance.

We're talking chop shops like Deutsche Bank, loan sharks, and especially money laundries such as the Bank of Cyprus which until a few years ago was a favorite place for Russian kleptocrats to sanitize their dirty lucre.

In 2008, Trump Jr. on the record said that, "Russians make up a pretty disproportionate cross-section of a lot of our assets. We see a lot of money pouring in from Russia."

At least someone in his family is capable of letting the truth slip out.

Even a casual perusal of Trump's tax returns would reveal the sources of his money and income. Would it surprise anyone if we in this way discovered that he engaged in all sorts of shady deals and shenanigans with lots of money coming from Russia?

So when it finally dawned on Trump that special counsel Robert Mueller has the power to demand his tax and other financial documents, something Trump incredibly seems to have begun to pay attention to just this week, bells and whistles went off and that immediately became Trump's line in the sand--he told the New York Times he might fire Mueller if he pressed to scrutinize his finances.

We know for sure following the money trail is looming. It's Special Counsel 101.

And then, of course, Mueller would also see son Junior's and son-in-law Kushner's tax filings, which would make matters even worse.

What we'd be likely see is the inner financial machinations of a crime family.

Donald Junior is reported to be whining that he can't wait for this presidency to be over.

Well, he may soon get his wish. He may not have to wait another endless three-and-a-half years.

If Junior is unravelling as quickly as it appears, Trump's oldest son, feeling squeezed by the implosion, may follow in the footsteps of one of Bernie Madoff's sons. I can't bring myself to spell this out. If you don't remember the details, you're on your own to look it up.

So, here are the final steps. They will happen quickly because we have a talented and mobilized press corps. Much more so than during Watergate. Trump is getting back in kind for what he dished out to the "fake-news" press. I wouldn't have recommended messing with that sleeping giant.

I suspect he'll skip the firing-Mueller step and move right to the pardons. Sacking Mueller, assuming Trump has the power to do that, would bring down the wrath of not only Democrats (that would be predictable) but also rouse the up-to-now hypocritical Republicans who despise Trump but support his agenda, such as it is.

Thus, Trump has been asking about what pardon powers he has and boasting about it. They are constitutionally wide ranging. He'll pardon Flynn and Manafort, which should keep them from throwing Trump under the bus (elegant metaphor), and he'll pardon all his family members. Then, and he is looking into this too, unlike Nixon who had his successor, Jerry Ford pardon him, Trump will try to get away with pardoning himself.

This will go to the Supreme Court and, who knows, with Gorsuch recently nominated by Trump, he might prevail, 5-4. Remember Bush v Gore in 2000. Or then again, he may not.

Then we'll see what happens in the streets. Progressives will demonstrate once or twice but use most of their energy appearing on and watching CNN and "The NewsHour."

Trump people (that hardcore 35%) will go crazy. They'll see this crucifixion of Trump (that will become their preferred point of reference) as part of the ongoing liberal conspiracy. Tune into late-night talk radio if you want a preview of that. It will make Benghazi look like a tea party. Scratch that, a polite debate.