February 26, 2018--Jared Kushner In the Soup

If you're thinking that the reason it is taking so long for First Son-in-Law Jared Kushner to receive the security clearance that would allow him to see the top-secret documents Dad is already improvisationally allowing him to see, think again.

It is not just that he and First Daughter Ivanka failed to list meetings with Russians that they "took" or because they forgot to list several hundred of their assets on the forms they were required to fill out, rather it is because it is as the Washington Post reported on Friday--there are high-level concerns about Jared getting his hands on top secret information.

As reported Friday by WaPo there are substantial reasons it has taken more then a year for the FBI to get to this point. With no resolution in sight.

How is Jared supposed to "fix" the Middle East, defeat ISIS, and figure out what to do to get control of Mexico and Venezuela while serving as de facto Secretary of State, not to mention making the federal government more efficient and solving the opioid crisis while keeping his father-in-law from going off the deep end?

This is a rather ambitious job description for Kushner so one would imagine that the FBI would have given it top priority.

I am sure they did and in the process found things so egregious, so troubling that they punted the decision to the White House itself where chief-of-staff Kelly, to whom Jared is supposed to report, is undoubtedly taking illicit pleasure in arranging for his chief rival to twist slowly in the wind.

I got a sense of what concerned the FBI from David Frum's chilling new book, Trumpocracy: The Corruption of the American Republic. Especially the chapter, "Plunder," substantially about the Trump and Kushner money.

One thing son- and father-in-law have in common is frequently hovering close to bankruptcy. Including right now. In Kushner's case the collapse of the 666 Fifth Avenue deal, about which I have already written (January 8th).

This deal alone has plunged Jared into a cascade of personal financial troubles. Perhaps enough for at least three things to result--

First, Jared and the rest of the Kushners go broke. 

No more fancy New York City lifestyle, no more regular tables at the 21 Club, no more holidays in Aspen, and likely no more Ivanka who is unlikely to hang around while her husband is forced to grovel for bailout funding to keep him out of debtors' prison. She's no Huma Abedin.

Second--the groveling part. This includes, as bankripsies often do, involvement with shady types in shiny suits, characters who are only too happy to loan you money if you promise to turn over to them as collateral your first born son, but don't wait around for long before wanting to get paid.

In Kushner's predicament, back to David Frum and the FBI (which more than any person or institution must be relishing the Trump-related agony and desperation), I am feeling certain that their background check discovered his financial situation and shenanigans. In Jared's case I am certain that they unearthed the same sorts of note holders that Frum did--largely international banks that specialize in money laundering. Chinese banks, off-shore banks, Cypriot banks, Deutsche Bank, and of course--closer to home--Russian banks where oligarchs and Putin himself go to launder they filthy lucre. 

The kind of guys, who, if they can't get their hands on your evaporating cash, after working on your knees, want a piece of your behind. In the case of someone like Kushner (and Paul Manafrot) that piece could easily be access to confidential information or levers through which to undermine what's left of our democracy. You can pay back either with cash or state secrets.

Third and finally, Trump World comes crashing down. As I also wrote recently, using my favorite, Ockham's Razor (January 29th--"Reiterating."), ultimately it has been and is all about money. With Kushner's crash proceeding his father-in-law's.
And it won't solve Trump's problem to pardon Kushner and Manafort, among others, because some of their alleged crimes occurred in New York and federal, presidential pardons do not override criminal prosecutions in individual states. 

Be patient, once even many Trump supporters see all the documentary evidence of the colluding with the Russians, in spite of Fox News and the White House crying "fake news," once they see how the coverup and obstruction of justice has been playing out, once Trump "little guy" supporters see, again, hard evidence of the money trail, it will be difficult for Trump to talk his way out.
The system may be working.  

January 29, 2018--Reiterating

With the Mueller investigation at full boil, with so many moving parts, it is again time to step back and look for a big picture that links most if not all the seemingly disconnected pieces.

Previously, I've turned to Ockham's Razor, employing that ancient philosophical tool that seeks the simplest but most comprehensive explanation when confronted with seemingly unrelated, even contradictory elements.

In Trump's case we have just this week seen the White House and the Trump enablers at Fox News and Republicans in Congress in almost complete disarray.

There has been a sustained campaign in general to undermine the credibility of the FBI and Robert Mueller's investigation in particular. There has been the absurd charge attributed to the president that the reason Mueller is incapable of being fair is because of a dispute about membership fees at one of Trump's golf courses! And we have been hearing about a secret Illuminati society within the FBI leading efforts to depose Trump and his administration.

And of course there is the revelation that back in June Trump ordered the White House counsel, Donald McGhan, to fire Mueller, even though he does not have the power to do so. He in turn threatened to resign (in a rare burst of integrity from among the Trump people) if forced to proceed.

There is more, much more. All of it, though, made coherent with the help of the 14th century Franciscan friar--

Trump's desperate behavior is because ONLY HE KNOWS THE FULL TRUTH AND EXTENT OF HIS OWN INVOLVEMENT IN RUSSIA-GATE, and because that truth is so devastating, he is frantically grasping at anything that he feels can rescue him from this self-made crisis.

Trump alone knows the full and truthful story of his and his minions' involvement in colluding with and encouraging the Russian government to intervene on his behalf in the 2016 election.

Only Trump knows fully what he and his acolytes have done to cover up, to obstruct their malfeasance. What he and they have done to obstruct justice.

Trump is the only one who knows all the details of Trump, Inc's business involvements with Russia, including the massive sums of money that were likely laundered in the process.

Trump alone knows the truth about what is included in the infamous dossier. Not the Clinton campaign's minimal involvement, which they have attempted to generalize, but Trump's business dealings in Russia as well as his possible involvement with Russian prostitutes.

Only Trump knows what his children and son-in-law have been up to in regard to everything from conspiratorial activities to money laundering to attempts to subvert justice.

Only he knows the full story of his adulterous affair with pornstar "Stormy Daniels" and what appears to be Melania understandably leaving his side.

Again, the panicky behavior we are witnessing is the result of the truth about Trump's involvements, the full extent of which he and only he knows.

It's enough to make one crazy. And that is what we are seeing. But the end is near. Quite near.

August 4, 2017--Jack: "What If . . .?"

"What if if there's no there there."

"What in God's name are you talking about?" Jack is not at his best when he tries to be clever.

"I called to see what you think."

"About there-there?"

"About my boy. The Donald." Jack was sounding chipper.

I thought--what am I missing? He's chipper after the ten days Trump just completed? Failing to get the Senate to pass even a vacuous healthcare bill; Congress' passage of a veto-proof Russian sanctions bill Trump opposed; the fiasco about his direct involvement in drafting Donald Junior's note about the dirt-on-Hillary meeting with Russians; and then of course Sean Spicer's quitting; the mini-appointment of Anthony Scaramucci; Reince Priebus' "resignation." Things of that sort.

"Here's what I'm thinking. I mean wondering about."

"Go on."

"I mean, as I said, maybe there's no there there." I sighed. "For month's you and people like you have been talking about Trump's being guilty of colluding with the Russians to undermine Hillary's campaign and how Trump probably has all sorts of business dealings with the Russians. Not to mention that scurrilous BuzzFeed dossier that claims that Trump, while in Russia for the Miss Universe pageant, was caught on tape fooling around with prostitutes. I forgot what you called it--something about a razor?"

He really had me confused. He said, "The razor business."

"Ockham's Razor, right," I said, remembering. "About how it's used to come up with the simplest explanation for a lot of seemingly unrelated information."

"That's the one."

"How almost everything Trump has said or done that has anything at all to do with Russia--from his refusal to acknowledge their meddling in Clinton's campaign to his going ballistic whenever it's hinted that one of his children was involved, and of course firing Comey and saying how he would also like to sack Mueller, all of this and more," I said, "'makes sense,' in Ockham's Razor terms if Trump himself was up to his eyeballs in dirty-dealings with Putin and the Russians."

"Exactly."

I was surprised to hear Jack agree with this, so I added--"Until Mueller and his battalion of lawyers get to the bottom of things, Trump is the only one who knows what he did and didn't do. His being guilty would explain almost everything that has been going on."

"That's my point!" He was getting more excited by the minute.

"What's your point? That Trump is drowning in his own . . ."

Jack cut me off, "That maybe he did and maybe he didn't."

"Here we go," I said, more and more exasperated. "I don't have time for games, so either get to your point or I'm hanging up."

"This is America, right?"

"More talking in riddles," I said, ready to hang up.

Jack pressed on, "In America you're innocent until proven guilty, right. Apply that to Trump. As you say, he's the only one who knows what he did and didn't do. It's conceivable, then that he could have clean hands. No colluding with the Russians to defeat Hillary, no substantial financial ties with Russia, and no truth about anything much in that so-called dossier,"

"Anything's possible," I said, "Even that he has clean hands, but what are the chances . . ."

"Think of it this way. He loves to entertain and surprise. Notice how different things are after only three days of General Kelly becoming chief of staff. No incendiary tweets, no crazy off the cuff remarks or inappropriate behavior."

"Let's see how long that lasts."

"Months ago, after he was nominated and then really after he was elected, people, even you, wondered if he would pivot. Become more presidential. Maybe he's finally about to do that. He has been letting the investigations play out, he's fulminated about Mueller, but he's still there. Do you think if Trump was seriously, legally guilty he would let Mueller continue? Wouldn't he roll the dice and fire him?"

"Where are you going with this," I asked Jack.

"Maybe there's another Ockham's Razor analysis--that there's no there there."

"Again you . . ."

"That Trump's been playing Mueller, the media, and all the rest of us. Just when he's about to go down for the last time, just before the house collapses on him, he'll pull back all his defenses, share his tax information, and show everyone there's nothing of substance behind any of the charges."

"I'll tell you what I think is going one with you."

"I'm all ears."

"Pure and simple, he's crazy and you're scared. Because you think he's going under. Just yesterday there was a story in the Wall Street Journal that Mueller empaneled the grand jury. To Trump, and to you too, this must feel ominous. So you're looking desperately for explanations other that he and his cohorts committed crimes."

Not dealing with that, Jack said, "Time and time again he's proven to be crazy like a fox. If what I'm saying is true, what do you think will happen to his approval ratings? I'll bet they'd soar to 60 percent. At that time he could become the powerful president a lot of us have been waiting to see him become. Think about how that would be viewed by both the public and Congress. It would be like a Houdini escape--it looks as if he's finished and then when all seems lost he surfaces and everything is well. Better than well."

"I suppose anything's possible. But this one strains credulity. To let himself get into so much unnecessary jeopardy is way beyond putting on a show. I know he's into providing entertainment and maybe in some case flirts with near-death experiences, but if what you're saying is true, he really is reckless. In fact, worse than reckless."

"I like your comparing him to Houdini," Jack said, "Like all magicians Houdini was a master of diversion. He gets you to watch his left hand while he's doing his thing with his right one. You yourself acknowledged Trump is great at diverting attention. This could be his masterpiece."

"Like I said--this is crazy. Talk about there not being any there there."

"Good one," Jack said, laughing. "Let's be a little patient and see how this plays out."

March 30, 2017--What's Up With Devin Nunes?

An otherwise nondescript congressman from the scorching Central Valley in California, Devin Nunes is now perhaps the best known of his 434 colleagues.

He of course is the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, a plum assignment for someone without any intelligence work on his resumé or much political savvy. Running the committee until now he played the game in the traditional bipartisan way operating out of the spotlight and rarely interviewed by the cable news channels. Your basic congressional hack.

Then something snapped.

He's on TV all the time, mostly racing through the House of Representatives fending off reporters hanging out in what appears to be Congress' underground boiler room, junior media types hungry for any snippet from him about his midnight sleuthing on "the White House grounds," his one-on-one meeting with President Trump, his unwillingness to share with committee members new information about the administration's alleged Russian Connection, or why without consulting other committee members he has suspended routine meetings and hearings. In effect shutting down the committee.

No one seems to have a handle on what's going on with him and why he either went James-Bond-style rogue or finds himself overwhelmed by the sudden scope and importance of his work.

In an effort to figure things out, I trotted out my trusty Ockham's Razor to see if that can bring insight to this mess of a situation.

Ockham would say there are at least three explanations for all the seemingly contradictory behavior--

(1) Nunes is way over his head and his underlying incompetence is being exposed. What he up to is not well thought out or strategic.
(2) As an early supporter of Donald Trump's he is striving to protect his leader from being harmed by whatever his committee might unearth.
(3) As a member of the Trump transition team, bedazzled by exposure to the glittery Trump life style and, wanting more of it, he is willing to sacrifice his reputation in order to become a member of the inner circle.
(4) All of the above.

I am inclined to say "all of the above." But with some new spin from what has already been reported and speculated about.

Invoking Ockham here's what I think is going on--

Nunes was born and raised in Tulare right in the middle of the San Joaquin Valley, a town of about 60,000, nearly 60 percent of them Hispanic farm workers. His father owned a modest cattle ranch and young Devin early on thought he would become the third generation of Nuneses to own and run it. So he went to the local community college and studied agriculture.

For someone even half smart--and he is at least that--Tulare was a good place to get away from. Almost 200 miles distant from both LA and San Francisco, he opted to stay close to home and seek ways to escape. After some local politicking he managed to get elected to Congress in 2003 and has been reelected six times, most recently, unopposed.

He was spotted by Speaker John Boehner as an effective fundraiser and was rewarded by being named chair of the Intelligence Committee. When Paul Ryan took over from the deposed Boehner he reappointed him, in part, I suspect, thinking Nunes is Hispanic. And since there aren't a lot of Latinos among the Republican congressional delegation, there he still sits and presides. That is, when the committee meets.

Nunes is in fact of Portuguese dissent, but for the GOP, this is close enough.

Then there was the invitation to join the transition team and with that came his exposure to the Russian Connection explosion.

Can you imagine what it must have been like for someone like Nunes from Tulare to be welcomed into Trump's gilded world?

Walls literally of gold; a wife and daughter looking like Melania and Ivanka; the opportunity to talk with the legendary Midas about potential cabinet appointments; and, closer to the current situation, to assist son-in-law Jared in talking with dozens of foreign leaders calling into Trump Tower to congratulate the Big Guy and to begin to seek diplomatic deals.

These apparently were Nunes' transition assignments. Heady work for someone who had never before been in any spotlight or seen the lights of Broadway.

Soon thereafter he and we learned from FBI director James Comey that there is an on-going investigation about potentially improper relationships between Trump associates, Russian oligarchs and diplomats, and Russian intelligence officers.

He and we also learned that there may have been collusion between some Trump associates and Russians who were busy hacking into the Clinton campaign in a effort to tip the election to Trump.

But as chair of the Intelligence Committee, Nunes likely learned a lot more than this barest of outlines about the investigations that are underway. He likely knows the unmasked names of those Trump associates who were picked up incidentally during FBI surveillance; he may have seen that Trump himself is a target; and, most perilous from Nunes' perspective, he may have learned that his own name appears in some of these investigative intercepts.

He, after all, might have spoken with people from Eastern Europe and, who knows, if he was used by Trump people as a dupe, even to a Russian or two. Maybe even a spy.

To get him implicated this way would assure he wouldn't be eager as Intelligence Committee chair to look too closely into what was really going on with and among Trump and his people. A compromised Nunes could provide some insurance or cover for implicated Trump operatives.

In the aggregate, especially his own potential involvement in things he shouldn't have been exposed to could easily explain his erratic and panicky-seeming behavior.

Too conspiratorial minded? Perhaps.

But who would have thought the Russians were up to sabotaging Hillary Clinton's campaign and who would have imagined that Trump's campaign manager was on a key oligarch's payroll to the tune of $10 million a year?

At the moment, I like Ockham's answer.

March 3, 2017--End of a Week Without Him

You can only imagine how unwelcome a call from Jack felt as I was approaching my last day of detox, especially since I was feeling optimistic about my progress, having managed to mention him (not Jack) only once in Thursday's Gala Girl blog.

For the past month Jack and I have talked about nothing but. I was therefore certain he wasn't calling to talk about the weather.

He wasn't.

"I assume," he began, "that in spite of your pretty pathetic efforts not to mention . . ."

I cut him off, "Please, I beg you, don't even mention his name." In the background Rona was frantically gesturing that I should hang up the phone. I was tempted but didn't since much of the 12-step literature I have been reading says that you can only consider yourself in recovery if, for example, you can be around someone having a drink and not fall off the wagon. So I didn't hang up, seeing this to be a test of how well I was doing as I approached step-12.

"OK," he said, "I won't mention Trump by name. I am trying to be empathetic, but so much happened over night, is probably happening right now, that I couldn't wait to Monday to talk with you about . . .  him."

I held off from responding.

"This business with Jeff Sessions is very disturbing. Less than two days after that amazing speech to Congress we're right back in the soup. I was thinking that before you lapsed into self-imposed silence you had some interesting things to say about the Russian connection. What did you call it, Oscar's Razor?"

I spite of myself I corrected him, "Ockham's."

"What?"

"Razor."

"Isn't it about if you connect all the dots they lead one way or the other to . . . him."

I held my tongue, already feeling quite proud of myself.

"That would explain why there are no tax returns. You probably would say, if you ever resume talking, that they would reveal that . . . he probably got bailout money from Russians through that money-laundering bank on Cyprus that his Commerce secretary, Wilber Ross is half owner of."

"I probably . . . "

"How about the report that Paul Manafort--rememebr him, . . . his former campaign manager who they fired when it became known he was on the Russian payroll--is under investigation by the FBI. If they indict him he could blow the whistle on the whole thing rather than going to jail for ten years. Like some of Nixon's people turned on him to save their scalps."

"Also . . ."

"And then there's that famous BuzzFeed dossier. Every day something else from it gets verified. Soon, like you wrote, we'll hear that the things with the prostitutes are true and that the Russians have the goods on . . . him."

"Then . . ."

"Then indeed. Didn't your favorite paper yesterday, the New York Times, publish a story about how Obama's people during their last weeks in office, to make sure that Trrrr's people . . . his people, wouldn't be able to destroy intelligence evidence about their Russia dealings because they spread what they had on . . . him around to members of Congress and the press?"

"It could be . . ."

"Listen to me."

"I try . . ."

"I'm beginning to sound like you. All this Trump bashing. But even to me it's disturbing. But to change the subject, my favorite story of the day--OK my second favorite--is that Oprah Winfrey is thinking about running for president in 2020."

"O . . . ?"

"Yes, Oprah told Bloomberg News that she never thought about it before  . . . he was elected. But now, to quote her, 'I just thought oh, oh.'"

"And your first . . . ?"

"Sorry. To top the week off there are reports that Beau Biden's wife began fooling around with Beau's brother just four months after Beau died. I mean . . ."

"I read that they're in love. Can't you leave it at that? But at least this story has nothing to do with Trump."

July 13, 2105--Ockham's and Dad's Razors

We've been sorting though things at my mother's apartment, stopping frequently to savor a picture or letter from long ago and only vaguely remembered.

Thus far my favorite is a thick looseleaf notebook in which my mother kept the minutes of the Groucho Society. It was in effect a cousins club that included Zwerlings and Neubauers, the Neubauers being from my grandmother's side of the extended family.

The Newbauers were great characters and even included a gangster or two. As you might imagine, they were my favorite of all Zwerling and Neubauer relatives. Just think how my youthful imagination was fired by the fact that Uncle Herman knew Mayer Lansky and had a pistol, which he allegedly needed and even used in one of the bars and grills he owned in New Jersey.

The Grouchos met every month or two during the first ten years after my parents were married--the late 20s to late 30s. During their lifetimes, though pressed frequently by me wanting to know about secrets from their past, neither of my parents had a good explanation about the name of the group--was it derived from Groucho Marx or just because many of the members were, well, grouchy?  They never said, which incited me to want to know more. Perhaps now in the minutes . . .

I haven't had time yet to read through the minutes my mother meticulously kept, but even a glance at her literally perfect handwriting reveals not a blot or edit on any page through which I have thus far thumbed. But just to marvel at the perception, her perfection is full of meaning and challenge. The standard she set for herself and the rest of us. To be perfect in all regards is to hold us to the highest standard, which has it attraction, but is also one we can never reach. Maybe that too has value--it humbles us to experience the unobtainable.

My other favorite thing thus far is a Bic razor of my father's that my mother brought with her to Forest Trace when she relocated. Nearly 20 years ago. Quite a shelf-life for an otherwise disposable razor!

I remember using it on much earlier visits to my mother when I either forgot to bring one of my own or wanted, by using it, to have the feel of his hand on mine and on my face while shaving. It was very intimate.

I haven't used it in 15 years and was not surprised to find it still in the guest bathroom since my mother was very good at keeping things--of course in perfect arrangement and preservation.

I took it with me to our apartment in Delray and used it twice while here because I forgot to bring one of my own or, closer to the truth, wanted my father literally close at hand at this emotional time stroking my cheeks. It worked well in those regards.

It also made me think of another razor, a metaphorical one--Ockham's. I have that helpful or dysfunctional ability to switch from deep feelings to the abstract as one of my ways of dealing with sadness or memories that overwhelm. Thus, Ockham's Razor.

It, or the Law of Parsimony, is a problem solving principal devised by William of Ockham in the 14th century that says that the best solution to a complex problem is the simplest one that accounts for the largest number of facts, variables, and phenomena. For example, in contemporary particle physics, there is the Standard Model that connects in the simplest terms yet understood the electromagnetic, strong, and weak nuclear forces.

My father was very much an Ockham man.

He was a great problem solver and, I must say, problem maker. He was adept at putting things in contexts. Often simple ones that, as he would put it, held a "grain of truth." Like, his favorite--religion is at the root of most of the world's most intractable problems. That gets to a truth in a version of the simplest way.

I should add--his version of truth. Just like Ockham's, which could be, always was, ultimately superseded by other elegant solutions that explained even more, so were Dad's challenged by members of his striving family who were coming to insights and conclusions of their own devising.

His literal razor, however, which is still functioning, over time has lost some of its sharp edge and it now scrapes across one's flesh, plucking as well as cutting. Rough while also gentle--just like my father.