November 13, 2019--Vice President Nikki

I spoke too soon when I wrote snarkily last week that if Michael Bloomberg wants to enter the Democratic contest and is playing to win, running on a bipartisan ticket with someone like Nikki Haley as his Vice Presidential candidate could be a politically smart move.

But then a couple of things happened--first, I had second thoughts about Haley after a rush of friends' comments inspired me to take a closer look at her resumé. It's not that impressive. She clearly has a lot of personal sizzle but not much substance. 

And, then, in conjunction with the publication of her book, With All Due Respect, she appears to be signaling that she is available right now to run for vice president--not on a Bloomberg ticket but on Trump's, after he dumps Mike Pence.

I can only imagine her pitching Trump that if he taps her that will solve his problem with suburban women. And as a woman of color, that too would be helpful. Win, win, win.

Gossipy books such as this, for which she received at least a $2.0 million advance from Simon & Schuster, need to have enough juicy stories to generate prepublication buzz and advanced orders on Amazon. As of this morning it is 4th on Amazon'a best seller list.

In the case of Haley, the juicy stuff is her claim that in the early days of the Trump administration she was approached by Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Chief of Staff John Kelly to join them in "saving the country" by "undermining Trump." 

If true, one might call this treason.

But is her revelation true?

She was asked point blank Monday night on Fox News by Sean Hannity if she told the president about this plot. She said, "absolutely."

He failed to follow up. He did not ask her why, then, she did not mention it in her book. If it happened, wouldn't she have written about alerting Trump and wouldn't he, if she brought this treasonous allegation to his attention, have had Tillerson and Kelly escorted by federal marshals to the Oval Office and fired them on the spot?

So I doubt her story and see it as fabricated for an audience of one, Trump, to maneuver him to put her on his ticket. And to sell books.

On the other hand, candidate Bloomberg with a moderate Republican as his vice president may still be a good idea.

February 28, 2018--Jared Agonistes

The story-behind-the-story regarding last night's breaking news that White House senior advisor and son-in-law Jared Kushner had lost his top-secret security clearance is not primarily about the fact that he will no longer be privy to, for example, intelligence agencies' reports about the inner workings of the Israeli government--something it would presumably be important for Kushner to know as he strives day and night to "solve the Middle East," as his father-in-law puts it--but rather than the story primarily being about this most recent piece of juicy Oval Office gossip that chief-of-staff John Kelly gleefully cut Jared off from the nation's top secrets thus reducing his status to just-another-staffer in the snake pit that is the Trump administration; no, the story is not about what Kushner can and cannot know but rather the heart of the matter is that the feds that have been looking into Jared's background (the embattled FBI, the same FBI that is working hard on the Mueller investigation while daily being undercut by Fox News and the president) not only based their recommendation on the evidence that Kushner failed to report a meeting or two with the Russians or forgot to list a few of his hundreds of financial assets, but rather Jared is being cut off at the knees (including by Trump who threw him to the insider wolf John Kelly) because they, big time, have the goods on Jared Kushner.

The goods being the evidence the FBI uncovered of the fast-and-loose way Kushner has operated in his desperate efforts to lift his and his family's real estate empire for the mire of debt in which he has brought them as the result of his greed and arrogant overreach. 

This overreach luring him to turn to all sorts of bad guys as he scrambles to borrow money from the black economy where big money available to bottom-feeders such as Jared Kushner (and his felonious father before him in an almost biblical way) comes mainly from money laundries that as a consequence not only own your property but also own you.

And thus if you happen to work half a step behind the president in the White House owning you as you is worth a lot more than a billion or two. Putin already is the richest man ever with hidden assets conservatively estimated to total, give-or-take, $100 billion, making him twice as wealthy as Bill Gates. But to own Jared Kushner, now that's a story to behold. And fear.

Two more things. OK, three more--

First, within the federal bureaucracy it is no big deal to have a lowest-level security clearance. I know middle-level government workers who have little actual power but are excited that they have secret clearance. This places them in the top 40 percent of federal government workers because the 2.86 million of them who have such access to secret documents represent about 40 percent of the total 7.0 million workforce with that 7.0 million including postal workers. So think about Jared Kushner now having the status of the person who brings you your mail.

Second, note how casually Donald Trump abandoned his most trusted advisor. All right, his second most trusted family member. No one will ever displace Ivanka, though who knows what Trump will do next week to save his sagging skin.

And then last, isn't Jared's comeuppance evidence that the system is working? That not only is he being brought down by the little people as I am now feeling more certain his father-in-law will? Little people like those on various Mueller grand juries currently operating in Washington, DC and nearby Virginia? People Kushner has likely never noticed as he walks around with his nose aristocratically in the air.

Sorry, finally--do you think if Donald Trump was an American Mussolini Jared Kushner would have had his wings clipped?

February 26, 2018--Jared Kushner In the Soup

If you're thinking that the reason it is taking so long for First Son-in-Law Jared Kushner to receive the security clearance that would allow him to see the top-secret documents Dad is already improvisationally allowing him to see, think again.

It is not just that he and First Daughter Ivanka failed to list meetings with Russians that they "took" or because they forgot to list several hundred of their assets on the forms they were required to fill out, rather it is because it is as the Washington Post reported on Friday--there are high-level concerns about Jared getting his hands on top secret information.

As reported Friday by WaPo there are substantial reasons it has taken more then a year for the FBI to get to this point. With no resolution in sight.

How is Jared supposed to "fix" the Middle East, defeat ISIS, and figure out what to do to get control of Mexico and Venezuela while serving as de facto Secretary of State, not to mention making the federal government more efficient and solving the opioid crisis while keeping his father-in-law from going off the deep end?

This is a rather ambitious job description for Kushner so one would imagine that the FBI would have given it top priority.

I am sure they did and in the process found things so egregious, so troubling that they punted the decision to the White House itself where chief-of-staff Kelly, to whom Jared is supposed to report, is undoubtedly taking illicit pleasure in arranging for his chief rival to twist slowly in the wind.

I got a sense of what concerned the FBI from David Frum's chilling new book, Trumpocracy: The Corruption of the American Republic. Especially the chapter, "Plunder," substantially about the Trump and Kushner money.

One thing son- and father-in-law have in common is frequently hovering close to bankruptcy. Including right now. In Kushner's case the collapse of the 666 Fifth Avenue deal, about which I have already written (January 8th).

This deal alone has plunged Jared into a cascade of personal financial troubles. Perhaps enough for at least three things to result--

First, Jared and the rest of the Kushners go broke. 

No more fancy New York City lifestyle, no more regular tables at the 21 Club, no more holidays in Aspen, and likely no more Ivanka who is unlikely to hang around while her husband is forced to grovel for bailout funding to keep him out of debtors' prison. She's no Huma Abedin.

Second--the groveling part. This includes, as bankripsies often do, involvement with shady types in shiny suits, characters who are only too happy to loan you money if you promise to turn over to them as collateral your first born son, but don't wait around for long before wanting to get paid.

In Kushner's predicament, back to David Frum and the FBI (which more than any person or institution must be relishing the Trump-related agony and desperation), I am feeling certain that their background check discovered his financial situation and shenanigans. In Jared's case I am certain that they unearthed the same sorts of note holders that Frum did--largely international banks that specialize in money laundering. Chinese banks, off-shore banks, Cypriot banks, Deutsche Bank, and of course--closer to home--Russian banks where oligarchs and Putin himself go to launder they filthy lucre. 

The kind of guys, who, if they can't get their hands on your evaporating cash, after working on your knees, want a piece of your behind. In the case of someone like Kushner (and Paul Manafrot) that piece could easily be access to confidential information or levers through which to undermine what's left of our democracy. You can pay back either with cash or state secrets.

Third and finally, Trump World comes crashing down. As I also wrote recently, using my favorite, Ockham's Razor (January 29th--"Reiterating."), ultimately it has been and is all about money. With Kushner's crash proceeding his father-in-law's.
And it won't solve Trump's problem to pardon Kushner and Manafort, among others, because some of their alleged crimes occurred in New York and federal, presidential pardons do not override criminal prosecutions in individual states. 

Be patient, once even many Trump supporters see all the documentary evidence of the colluding with the Russians, in spite of Fox News and the White House crying "fake news," once they see how the coverup and obstruction of justice has been playing out, once Trump "little guy" supporters see, again, hard evidence of the money trail, it will be difficult for Trump to talk his way out.
The system may be working.  

February 13, 2018--#metoo

Friday afternoon, exasperated, Katy Tur on MSNBC, said, "All I'm hearing is 'he, he he.' Not a word about 'her.'"

She was referring to what she and the rest of us were hearing from Donald Trump about Rob Porter, his recently fired White House Staff Secretary. Though an ordinary-sounding job title, the Staff Secretary has frequent direct access to the president and is responsible for determining what printed material is given to the president to read or, in Trump's case, ignore.

To serve in that position, like his predecessors, Porter needed a top secret security clearance. Which he didn't have since the FBI, about a year ago, when reviewing his application, discovered that he had physically assaulted both of his ex-wives and thus did not approve assigning him that status.

Late Friday afternoon, in a virtually unprecedented move, unannounced, Trump invited the White House press corps into the Oval Office to take a few questions. It was no surprise that all of them were about Rob Porter. Trump had clearly thought carefully about what he would say.

At length, with a heavy-sounding heart, he spoke about what an exemplary employee Porter had been and how he would be missed. He called his departure "very sad" and that "we hope he will have a wonderful career." That "it's been a hard time for him."

He also reminded us that poor Porter had not been proven guilty, that he was merely the victim of allegations. There had not been due process. 

It was widely noted by Katy Tur and others that Trump spoke not a word about the women who had been physically assaulted. He didn't point out that what they had endured was also "sad" or offer the hope that they too would have "wonderful careers" or lives.

Over the weekend a little research revealed that with Trump there is a distinct pattern about these matters--when someone is accused of spousal abuse or sexual harassment, in all cases except Harvey Weinstein's, Trump totally ignored the women and consistently made excuses for the men.  

About Senate candidate Roy Moore in Alabama, who was credibly accused of molesting and raping minors, Trump,  not acknowledging the then girls, emphasized that Moore hadn't been convicted of anything. It was classic he-said-she-said though it was clear who Trump believed. 

And in the cases of campaign managers Cory Lewandowski and Steve Bannon, both accused by ex-wives of domestic violence, Trump did not seem concerned and stood by them when the accusations came to light.

Then, still fitting the pattern, when Fox News's Roger Ailes and Bill O'Reilly were exposed as serial sexual predators, Trump fell in line in support of them.

About Weinstein Trump couldn't resist joining the condemnation since he was a major donor to Hillary Clinton's and other Democrats' campaigns. And so he overcame his reluctance to criticizing the men and took a swipe at Weinstein, saying, with unintentional irony on the very anniversary of the notorious Billy Bush Access Hollywood tape, that he was "not at all surprised" by revelations that the movie mogul repeatedly paid to settle charges of sexual harassment. It was obvious that Trump was speaking from personal experience.

"Still missing from this discussion," Rona said, "is more analysis about Trump's reticence."

I said, "I think in general it's been claimed that he's a classic chauvinist right out of the era in which he, a spoiled rich kid, came of age. A world where powerful men felt free to sexually exploit women, especially in the workplace. Mad Men like."

"I think that's only a part of the story," Rona said, "More significant to me is that he himself has been charged with sexual misconduct by at least 15 women and that he allegedly raped Ivana, his first wife. So he is directly implicated in his own world of similar accusations. Thus to talk in a more balanced way about the current burst of sexual allegations would potentially force him to confront his own behavior. So, by making excuses for the men accused, men like Rob Porter, via the psychological mechanism of projection, he is making excuses for himself. Diminishing the claims of the women suing him by assigning or projecting his behavior onto them. 

"You remember the hashtag Maureen Dowd created for him in her Sunday column? Instead of #metoo, she came up with something more appropriate for him--#me." 

"Perfect," Rona said with a sad smile.

February 12, 2018--Our Best Hope

What else is new. Over breakfast Saturday Rona and I were again talking about Donald Trump. This was in the midst of the Rob Porter fiasco. 

The fiasco was not about his two battered ex-wives (that was tragic) but about the way chief of staff Kelly handled, no, ignored the situation and tried to cover up the fact that Porter was denied a security clearance because the FBI found he was a spousal abuser. 

Additionally distressing, no one on the Trump team, including its supreme leader, did anything about it until it became publicly known and the White House was reluctantly forced to fire him. 

Reluctantly, not because Porter did such a good job, which was to manage the paper flow to Trump. Considering the fact that Trump does't read, that suggests Porter's was less than a full time job, which--gossip--meant he had the time to fool around with Trump uber-insider Hope Hicks. 

Trump and his Praetorian Guard handled his firing very gently--praising Porter highly as he was marched out the White House door because Trump and his inner circle feared he might show up on Robert Mueller's witness list and they didn't want to do anything further to incite him. 

Oh the stories Porter could tell Mueller from his vantage point right outside the Oval Office.

"You remember" Rona said, "the first person we knew who said he was not only putting out a Trump lawn sign but predicted that Trump would secure the nomination and also win the election?"

"I do remember that. It was up in Maine, it was Joe, and most amazing, he got it right even though Trump had just announced he was running and everyone, everyone, apparently including even Trump and his family, thought he had no chance. People were sure he was running half-seriously to build his brand. In other words, to make more money.

"We thought Joe was crazy."

"But he turned out to be right. Do you also remember what he said when we asked him why he was supporting Trump?"

"I do," Rona said, "It was because he felt Trump knew how to get things done. As a successful builder and businessman he had skills that would translate well in the White House. He'd be CEO-in-chief. And that's what we needed after eight years of Obama, where, Joe claimed, very little that was needed got done.

"I asked him to give us an example of Trump getting things done that qualified him to become president much less a successful one."

"He talked about the iceskating rink in Central Park. How the city couldn't make it work--the ice for years wouldn't freeze solid and though over six years they spent $3.0 million dollars of taxpayer money they couldn't fix it. After two years of agitating Trump finally got the mayor to agree to let him try, charging the city only for the cost of materials. In four months, 25 percent under budget, it was working fine and is now called the Trump Iceskating Rink."

"We were surprised that Joe knew so much about it. But he told us that not only did he but so also did a lot of others and that they would become his voters and defenders."

"Obviously Joe was right about the nomination and election but he was dead wrong about Trump being able to 'hire' only the best people or 'get things done.'"

"It turns out Trump's better at making messes than accomplishing things. Take Rob Porter as the most recent example."

"Can you imagine," Rona said, "How much worse it would be if Trump was actually competent and able to get things done? I hate to think what that would look like. At the moment, ineptitude is our best hope."

"One thing Trump accomplished."

"What's that?"

"After all the messes Joe's no longer willing to talk about politics or Trump."

August 18, 2017--What's Really Going On

From Donald Trump's perspective, it's not about white supremacy, it's not about America first, it's not about support for neo-Nazis, nor is it about immigrants. Though he does have hateful positions about all of these. 

As with almost everything about him, it's personal

For most of his followers, including that frightening base of about 25 percent of racist Americans as well as nearly 80 percent of Republicans who still support him, it is about some of these matters; but his appeal continues to derive primarily from his ability to mobilize the anger Americans feel at the eroding quality of their lives and their frustrations about America's diminishing place in the world.

Trump continues to be depressingly adept at exploiting their sense of decline and dislocation. He knows the buttons to push to elicit support when he sees it necessaryto shore up his coalition. Especially those who are at the hard core of his base. The ones he encourages through dog whistle statements and tweets that sanction the ugliest of reactions. The kind of scary hatred and violence we saw on display this past weekend in Charlottesville.

Again, none of this comes from genuine concern about Americans who feel they have been left behind (too many in fact have been). It is all about Donald Trump. Not about America but Donald Trump.

And so what we are witnessing is his latest reaction to what special counsel Robert Mueller is bringing to the boiling point--the role Trump himself played in stealing the presidency and his years of financial dealings with the Russians.

Concurrent with giving sanction to the mobilization of neo-Nazis and white supremacists were reports during the past two weeks about the FBI raid on former Trump campaign manager, Paul Manafort's house; what is turning up in the more than 20,000 documents the Trump campaign turned over to Mueller's people and what their perusal is beginning to reveal about collusion in the election with the Russians; and Mueller's move last week to seek testimony from senior White House aids, including recently-fired chief of staff, Reince Priebus.

Only Donald Trump knows what he did and didn't do. And this is clearly terrifying him.

If his hands are clean, he should have no concerns. On the other hand, if there is clear evidence that he knew and/or encouraged working with the Russians to undermine Hillary Clinton and/or if he has had significant financial dealings with Russians (many of them likely to be dirty), he has a lot to be more than concerned about. He should be feeling desperate.

Feeling desperate would explain much of his recent behavior, most vividly on display in his gyrating reaction to what was perpetrated in Charlottesville.

His desperation about his own, personal collapsing circumstances could be what has been motivating his increasingly grotesque behavior.

Again, it's all about Mueller.

Thus, we should soon see a renewed move to fire him and the offer of pardons to Michael Flynn and Paul Manafort. Both vulnerable to being "squeezed" by investigators in the hope that they will throw Trump under the bus to save their skins and keep them out of jail--which is where both are headed.

Meanwhile, while Charlottesville was blanketing the news, North Korea hasn't been sitting on its hands--expect reemerging threats from moves to launch more ICBMs and even renewed testing of nuclear weapons. This will give Trump the pretext to strike back and thereby clear the headlines of anything having to do with white supremacy or Trump people colluding with the Russians to undermining Clinton's campaign.

We'll see what the generals will say or do about that.

Of course, expect to see Steve Bannon receive his walking papers from the current chief of staff, John Kelly. Assuming Kelly himself doesn't quit before doing that.

Then, there is what Trump's senior advisors who are Jewish will do--treasury secretary, Steve Mnuchin and chief economic advisor Gary Cohen . . .

Son-in-law Jared Kushner might . . .

And daughter Ivanka may . . .

Left to Right--Gary Cohen, Steve Mnuchin, Donald Trump

July 31, 2017--Bring In the Generals

Reince Priebus is out and General John Kelly is in.

For months there have been rumors about replacing Priebus as White House Chief of Staff. Half the reason Anthony Scaramucci was brought in as Communications Director was to get rid of Priebus, who Trump had growing misgivings about but not the cojones to fire face-to-face. He appears only capable of doing that on reality TV.

So they tortured Preibus until he had enough and said enough. Big-bucks cable news and book deals await.

Kelly, a highly-decorated four-star Marine general will be moving from heading the Department of Homeland Security as soon as he can fill out the paperwork. Let's hope he doesn't forget to mention any meetings he had with Russians. Who will replace him in Homeland Security is anyone's guess. Maybe, God help us, Rudy or Christie?

Trump does like his generals. And he has appointed seemingly good ones in high level positions. Jim (Mad Dog) Mattis in Defense, H.R. McMaster as National Security Advisor, and General George Dunford as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Though generals are not by nature my favorite people, I am feeling good about these men.

As the Trump presidency continues to come undone, I am reminded of the last days of Nixon's reign. As he realized his time was nearly up, as the evidence became conclusive that he was involved in the coverup of the Watergate break-in, as he himself began to unravel, not sleeping, drinking heavily, and reportedly talking to the presidential portraits on the walls of the White House, concerned about his sanity, his chief of staff, General Alexander Haig, and his secretaries of Defense (Donald Rumsfeld), State (Henry Kissinger), and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (General George Brown) talked among themselves that if in a stupor he commanded them to launch nuclear missiles against, say, Russia, they would commit technical treason and not carry out Nixon's orders.

I am assuming that similar discussions are now occurring among senior members of Trump's administration. At least I hope so because as Trump sees himself more-and-more cornered, as only he knows the full extent of his dirty dealings with Russians both in business ventures and undermining Hillary Clinton's 2016 campaign--with Trump likely directly involved in both--one sleepless night he might call for a nuclear attack on North Korea or Syria. With North Korea it may come to that, but to the generals who know best about the perils of such an intervention, it may be wise for them not to carry out a bomb-first-think-last order of this kind.

In popular culture, in films such as Seven Days In May and Dr. Strangelove, it is the generals who seize power and get their hands on nuclear weapons. But in Nixon's day and hopefully now, it may be the the generals who will save the country.

General James (Mad Dog) Mattis

March 8, 2017--Ivanka Time

I've been holding off on suggesting this until things got desperate.

They are now that desperate and so--

Have you noticed that President Trump's tweets are at their most outrageous on Saturday mornings? The Jewish sabbath. A sabbath observed by daughter Ivanka and her family since she converted to "modern orthodox" Judaism in 2009.

The orthodox on Saturdays do no work, including turning on anything electrical. Things such as lights, electric ovens, and smart phones. So by posting his most outlandish thoughts and rants on Saturdays Trump figured out that in this way he can avoid the censorious scrutiny of son-in-law Jared and favorite child, Ivanka.

But now with his presidency unravelling and their own lives heading toward decline (economic as well as social--their New York friends are pretty much all liberals, including Chelsea Clinton), it is time for the children to intervene and become the parents of their parent.

When doing so they need to tell Dad over and over how much they love him, how remarkable he is, how magnificent his political assent, and emphasize all the good things he has already accomplished. But, they also need to tell him with affection and love, that his reign is about to come undone and he is in danger of slipping into irrelevancy or worse.

More than anything else, they need to tell him that he has to, desperately needs to get rid of Steve Bannon. That he is a radical anarchist and is in the process of destroying our most cherished institutions, from diplomacy to an independent judiciary to economic fairness to basic human compassion. Among other things, his ideas and influence will bring America to the brink of war. Or worse. All on Dad's watch.

What kind of legacy would he leave, they need to tell him, for his cherished children and grandchildren? What would a war, likely a nuclear war with North Korea, look like and what would remain of all they he literally and figuratively built?

He needs to listen to and bring to the forefront his best and brightest aides and cabinet members--Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Secretary of Defense Jim Maddis, Secretary of Homeland Security John Kelly, and National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster. They are mature and loyal (for a few more months at least) and will offer good advice while watching his back.

They need to emphasize that there is still time to begin to become a great president (I choke on these words), but not more than a few more months. The knives are already out. They know most people in the government including Congress either do not feel any loyalty to him or in more fundamental ways care about him.They see him mainly as someone available to sign legislation that he barely understands or cares about. So he really can't count on the Paul Ryans to stand by him and protect him. In many instances, just the opposite.

And then there is the nuclear option (and I am not talking about North Korea)--if Trump resists what they are urging they need to tell him that they will resign, return to New York City, which they already miss, and not be there to prop him up or console him when he screws up, as he did in spades in last Saturday's tweets.

And we know wife Melania has no interest in being in Washington. So he will be alone, for narcissistic types the worst of fates.

With tears and genuine feeling Ivanka and Jared need to say that it's their lives too that are being affected by the outrageous ways in which he is conducting himself. And, more important, their children's lives will be diminished. His grandchildren's.

In the meantime, I'm stocking up on bottled water and dried beans.