December 13, 2019--It's In Their Hands

Earlier in the week there was a blizzard of presidential poll results. 

Mainly about how the candidates were faring in Iowa and New Hampshire and how, nationally, individual Dems were doing in head-to-head contests with Trump.

The upper tier could not but feel encouraged. Even Amy Klobuchar, who was in about 8th place overall at four or five percent, appeared to be leading Trump by five or six percentage points. In first place, holding steady, Joe Biden was nine percentage point ahead of Trump.

Yes, the election is still nearly a year away, though almost everyone I know would like it to be next Tuesday, or tomorrow, and we know from the 2016 polling and results that people who eventually voted for Trump didn't reliably show up in the polls--apparently many people were and perhaps are reluctant to admit, perhaps are embarrassed to reveal they plan to vote for Trump--Biden's numbers especially are looking encouraging to anyone who wants to send Trump packing to Mar-a-Lago.

There was also a trickle of related poll and election results chat in the media that was both encouraging and concerning.

Some of the polls broke out data about how women are thinking about Trump and a generic Democratic opponent. Encouraging, 60 percent said they planned to vote for Trump's opponent, but concerning, 34 percent of polled women said they planned to vote to reelect him.

I know 60-34 represents a landslide and I'll take it, but how can one account for the fact that more than a third of American women say they will vote for Trump in spite of all the outrages he has committed when it comes to women.  From Stormy Daniels to the Access Hollywood tape to the way he characterizes any women with whom he disagrees. Ask Congresswoman Maxine Waters how he has smeared her.

And then, when discussing the polling results someone on "Morning Joe" reminded the panel and viewers that in 2016 only 19 percent of young people voted. Not for Trump, not for Hillary but did not vote at all. 

Also, someone pointed out that three years ago 4.4 million of Obama's 2012 voters did not vote.

So, looking toward 2020, unless women turn out, especially if black women vote at close to Obama levels, unless young people turn out, Trump could win a close Electoral College victory.

The good news though--it's all in our hands. 

August 22, 2018--The Fall of the House of Trump

On split-screen TV, on the same day, during the same hour, with the conviction of Donald Trump's campaign manager Paul Manafort, the guilty pleas of Trump fixer Michael Cohen, who will now sing like a canary, with the reminder yesterday that former National Security Advisor and confessed felon, Michael Flynn is still spilling the beans to the Mueller investigators, and the promise of more troubles to come (like the indictment of Don Jr?), well short of two years into his presidency, before our eyes, Trump World is unraveling.

As a result we can expect to see a great deal of desperate, out of control behavior by our deflating president.

There will be firings, there will be pardons, expect an intensification of insults and threats to soft targets such as Little Rocket Man, expect distractions, including some wave-the-dog military action. Expect more unhinged rallies like the one last night in West Virginia, and of course there will be more tweet storms with Mueller and Sessions in the crosshairs as Trump also continues to savage Omarosa, Maxine Waters, Nancy Pelosi, and Hillary. 

Melania will disappear from sight (also yesterday she announced she's about to take off on a solo trip to some "s-hole" countries in Africa) as will the Kusners. Unless Jared as well finds himself under the Mueller bus.

One thing not to expect--more than a handful of critical comments from wimped-out Republicans. They helped create Trump, rode his coattails to congressional leadership, doubled their bets on him as the midterms approached, and now will trickle down to insignificance with him. 

It is too late for these "rats" (Trump's word) to abandon ship. Live by him, die by him. As Tennyson wrote, to class up this sordid tale, we are seeing "Nature red in tooth and claw."

No one in Congress is writing a profile in courage.

And don't expect anything Trump perpetrates to protect him beyond Election Day. Even if Mueller is fired, like the Pentagon Papers, his report will see the light of day and, as a result, after Democrats win control of the House in early November, investigative hearings will begin January 2nd, Trump will be impeached by the House by the fall of 2019.

Though he will not be convicted by the Senate even if Democrats retake the majority since that requires an impossible 67 votes.

But in spite of this Trump will not retain the presidency beyond 2020. Knowing he can't win reelection, after declaring "mission accomplished," expect him to opt out for "health reasons." He will do a Nixon and turn the keys to the White House over to Mike Pence. Another nightmare in waiting.

But rather than focusing on that, let's enjoy the moment and the evidence from yesterday that the "system" may be working.

Paul Manafort Mugshot

August 20, 2018--George Lindberg's Nightmare: The Donald J. Trump Presidential Library

I received this email from my good friend George Lindberg--

Dear Steven

When you get in a slump because of insomnia, remember you at least have control of how you spend your awake time.  You can change the channel or shut it off at whim.  I on the other hand have no trouble falling asleep or staying asleep.  My problem is what happens while I am asleep.  

The other day you and Rona set some wheels in motion.  It all started the evening following your musings about the numerous presidential libraries you two have visited.  I have never been to any so I can only wonder what would be on display.

As I drifted into slumberland, I made the mistake of wondering what the Donald J. Trump Presidential Library would be like.  Steven, I can’t shut him off . . .

The dream always starts the same way.  I'm driving down I-95, heading toward Queens, the birthplace of Donald, where from a sign I notice that the name of the Throgs Neck Bridge has been changed to the Thongs Neck Bridge. When I get to Jamaica Estates, his boyhood home, I find myself at the new Donald J. Trump Presidential Library. Built on an old swamp that wasn't drained but filled in.

There was some talk of locating it on the campus of Trump University, but no one could locate it and the Wharton School people said, “No way."

In keeping with Trump tradition, the library has been set in a hot-sheet motel. In my dream it is always a pay by the hour place.  I park in a new seven story parking garage.  Funny thing is mine is the only car there.  A welcome sign tells me the place was built on land that was cleared after evicting 5,000 immigrants. 

As I enter I am required to show proof of citizenship.  Lucky for me (it’s a dream remember) I have my birth certificate with me.  Stepping in the foyer a holograph of Ivanka appears, suggesting I genuflect as I pass the life size (both height and width) portrait of The Donald.   “But,” she says, “By no means should you take a knee.”

Behind me is a gentleman who is apparently of foreign decent.  When he apologetically states he has no identification, Poof, the holograph disappears and the booming voice of Donald descends from the heavens, proclaiming --“OUT, OUT, GET THE S.O.B. OUT.  YOU'RE FIRED.”

I had to move on as I was being charged by the hour.

My recollection is that all the walls were painted a brilliant lily white.  Ivanka is back suggesting I follow the main corridor and at the end not to miss what's at the far right. She also urges me to look around in the High Tariff gift shop and purchase an official DJT gift with the presidential seal made by our good friends in China. She adds, “Please be sure to buy something in the apparel closeout section."

As I walk down the main corridor a screeching sound is heard and a golf cart comes careening around the corner from the alt-right.  It has been customized to look like the original clown car from the 2016 campaign.  At the wheel is Steve Bannon.  Except his hair is combed and bleached blond.  He says, “Get in.  I’ll show you around."    

Room after room passes by but I’m able to read the name plates on each door.

There is the Insults room, with dozens of printed tweets posted on the walls. The first one I see is about Rosie O'Donnell.

The Fake News room has an old teletype machine clacking away.  Lots of stuff is coming in from Fox News.

The Immigration room. On quick glance there are several pictures of families being reunited.  Including dates showing reunions occurring some five years after separation.

The Military Parade room has photos of veterans groups taking a knee.  I notice as a veteran I was in one of the pictures.  Head bowed, fist in the air.

There is the crowded Wives room.

The Promises Made room includes an audio introduction by Jon Luvitz.

The Apprentice room has Meatloaf songs piped in.

In the Law Suits room where there is a life-sized portrait of Roy Cohn.

The Miss Universe room has a for sale sign on the door.

A Space Force room includes mock ups of the first space warriors Trump wants to send to the moon.

There is a wax museum of many of the most prominent players from Trump World --Giuliani, Sessions, Bannon, Kellyanne, Hope Hicks, Anthony Scaramucci, and many more.

Right next to it is the Robert Mueller room and next door to that the Pardon room.

There is the Ladies room with wax likenesses of Stormy Daniels, Karen McDougal, a couple of Russian working girls, and even Rosie and Megyn.

The Putin room contains memorabilia from all their good times together.  With a newly-released video. I need to get back there to watch it.

I pass the Rocket Man room.

Steven, in my dream I asked Steve Bannon to show me the basement, but he said it was closed.  Something having to do with the base crumbling.

When we get to the end of the first floor hall, I see broom closets that are devoted to black people.  One is for NFL and NBA players, including LeBron James, and another for Maxie Waters and someone named Omarosa.  That name is crossed off and "Low Life Dog" is spray painted in its place.

Bannon tells me there is a wall half built around the library but contractors walked off the job when the residents in Queens refused to pay for it.

There are several floors just like this but the sun is coming up and so I rush to get out.

Sitting out front in a lawn chair I see former CIA director, John Brennan.  He told me they won’t let him in without a security clearance.

Driving home I can hear Tom Bodett saying, "Come back soon. We’ll leave the light on for ya”.

The road is smooth yet my car is rocking and bouncing.

A voice in my head says, "George, George wake up you’re having that nightmare again."

                                            *   *   *

I wrote back--"Somehow having 'library' and 'Donald Trump' in the same sentence is an oxymoron."

George said, "This is supposed to make me feel better?"

Site of the Donald J. Trump Presidential Library

August 14, 2018--Jack: Omarosa

"Long time no talk."

"What's on your mind, Jack? I'm sort of busy."

"Omarosa. You've heard of her?"

"Unfortunately, yes. So what is it?"

"Your people are all excited about her. Not actually about her, but about her so-called tell-all book, especially the tapes she says she has."

"Right. The one she made in the Situation Room of Kelly firing her and her claim that there are tapes of Trump during the Apprentice years using the N-word when talking about black people."

"You guys think this is going to bring down Trump. If so, dream on."

"I don't think she's going to bring Trump down. That should only happen. Mueller can bring him down but especially voters beginning in November. The Omarosa business at most will chip away at his support."

"The way I see it," Jack said, "is that she will wind up helping Trump."

"This I have to hear."

"I'm not proud to say this, because as you know I'm not a racist. In fact I hate some of Trump's dog-whistle behavior, including his attack on athletes--black athletes--and other African Americans like CNN's Don Lemon and congresswoman Maxine Waters, both of who I can't stand. Always referring to them as 'low IQ.'"

"That's more than dog-whistle behavior," I said, "It's more like classic, out-and-out racism. Outrageous and disgusting. But finish your thought."

"When Trump plays the race card," Jack said, "it just adds to how you and your kind think about him. You're already convinced that he's a racist. At most it will motivate a few more liberals to vote in November and in 2020, if he runs for reelection. But . . ."

"But?"

"But," Jack said, "what he said about NFL players or even the very popular LeBron James actually appeals to his people. To them it's another example of his not being politically correct. Which they love. It's one of the things that make them excited about supporting him in the first place. Look, even I will admit that a portion of his base--maybe even more than a portion--are racists. They hate people of color. You heard what Laura Ingraham said the other night on Fox News--that America is no longer the country we loved in the past. It's changed for the worst, she said, because of all the immigrants who have come into the country. Including those who entered legally. Really what she was saying is that the country is now browner and blacker than it was in the good old days. When America was great. She tried to walk it back the next day after she got slammed, but what she said was what she said. It was stark and clear but wasn't pretty."

"You sound like you're all over the place. On the one hand, you criticize Trump for playing racial dog-whistle politics and then you seem to like the fact that by his being openly racist he secures and strengthens his base."

"I am sort of the way you described me," Jack fussed up, "I dislike some of the stuff he does (just as I'm sure you didn't like everything Clinton or Obama did), but overall I still support him and want him to do well in November and then two years later in 2020. To me it's not about distractions like Omarosa but about his policies. So if what he says or implies some times turn me off, what I care about is what he's done and plans to do. I agree with most of his agenda. And so if she jazzes up his people that to me is a good thing."

"To tell you the truth I'm still confused. You're even less coherent about this than usual." I already had my fill of him.

"Let me try to straighten you out. Both she and he energize people but come at it from opposite perspectives. He shamelessly plays the race card while Omarosa convinces people that those like her--black people--are Trump haters and are just like Trump describes them to be--low-IQ criminals. By her extreme and dishonest behavior, without intending to, she reenforces the stereotype of black people he's promulgating. She seems self-seeking and biased. Just the kinds of things he and his people believe to be true about all black people."

"This is too cynical for words. I hate what you're saying."

"You may, but do you disagree with me?"

"Totally. I reject your racist views."

"You're missing the whole point," Jack said sounding exasperated, "I'm against racism. I'm just saying that being openly racist like Trump is--or pretends to be--is a strategy to build and mobilize support for himself. And people like Omarosa and the football players who take a knee are helping with that because, as I said before, they confirm the stereotype."

"I get that and some of what you say may be true, but that doesn't make it acceptable. It's not just about doing whatever it takes to win, how you win also counts. You guys who claim to be good Christians and true conservatives are nothing but hypocrites. I don't see anything Christian in any of this. There is no milk of human kindness. All I see is mean-spiritedness, fear of the 'other,' and hatred. Now I've had my say and am about to hang up." 

Jack held back and so I continued, "For what it's worth, my sense of things is that you need to do some deep soul-searching, including about how you come across. Maybe more than that you would be advised to do some thinking about what you are bringing down upon America. A country you say you love."

And with that I did hang up.