October 4, 2018--A Subdued Trump

Until a day or two ago Trump had been on a roll and, incredibly, at times almost sounded like a normal person.

He spoke moderately about deputy attorney general Rod Rosenstein. After the ("failing") New York Times wrote about how Rosenstein contemplated wearing a wire to record Trump's irrational behavior, when all were expecting him to fire Rosenstein and perhaps even Robert Mueller, Trump said he really wants to "keep" Rosenstein, that he'll meet with him in a week or so, and "we'll see what happens." As if Trump had nothing to do with the what happens.

When Senator Jeff Flake got the Senate judiciary committee to delay a week before voting on Brett Kavanaugh's appointment to the Supreme Court, to allow the FBI time to reopen its background check, rather than returning to ranting about and mocking the Arizona senator ("Jeff Flakey"), he offered temperate comments about this being a good idea. "No rush," he again said, "We'll see what happens." He even offered to withdraw Kavanaugh from consideration if he is found to have lied during his testimony before the committee.

Then he bullied Mexico and Canada to agree to significant changes in NAFTA. Changes even Democrats such as Chuck Schumer praised. A new-seeming Trump barely took a victory lap.

I thought someone in the White House must have slipped some Thorazine into his Big Macs.

Most amazing, after Dr. Christine Blasey Ford's wrenching statement to the judiciary committee, rather than attacking her credibility, Trump spoke softly about how it is important to listen to what she has to say and, again, if it proved to be true, he indicated he would withdraw Kavanaugh's nomination. 

But then, on Tuesday, unable to contain himself, Trump lashed out, mocking Dr. Ford.

At a rally in Southaven, Mississippi, imitating her voice, he spun out this viscous two-character Q&A--

"How did you get home? 'I don't remember.' How did you get there? 'I don't remember.' Where is the place? 'I don't remember.' How many years ago was it? 'I don't know. I don't know. I don't know.'"

That, I thought, is the Trump I know. Playing to his misogynist base.

Where had he been? What had he been up to?

I suspect, probing to find his best political way to respond to all the battering before launching new lines of attack.

And then he found his strategy--

He set his nasty little dialogue in a new context.

At the Mississippi rally he told parents in the audience, in the era of #MeToo, boys are in more danger than girls. Daughters might be threatened by sexually assault but their sons might find themselves falsely accused of committing sexual abuse and thus have their lives ruined. 

He said, "It's a very scary time for young men in America when you can be guilty of something you may not be guilty of. This is a very difficult time."

This is red meat for his base. Especially for middle-age white men who have felt their prerogatives, their privileges threatened, initially by how they experienced the women's movement which, among other things, called for equal pay, sexual parity, control of their bodies, political and executive equivalence, and now by the MeToo movement.

Women with access to a microphone or blog or a corporate human resources office have the power, these disaffiliated men feel, not only to boss them around, but with a simple accusation potentially ruin their lives.

It doesn't help the progressive cause when cable news outlets such as CNN have guests drawing comparisons between Bill Cosby (a convicted sexual predator) and Brett Kavanaugh. No matter how despicable and slimy he feels, Kavanaugh has not been convicted of anything, much less being, like Cosby, a "serial rapist."

We may already be seeing the beginnings of the political consequences from the new Trump campaign to play on this anger, these fears. 

In a number of key Senate battleground red states where Democrats are seeking to retain seats, poll numbers are beginning to swing in their opponents' direction. In North Dakota, for example, Senator Heidi Heitkamp who was running neck-and-neck with Kevin Cramer is now trailing by about 10 points.

We need to get to work. There are just four weeks until Election Day. We know Trump will be campaigning full time. Assuming he doesn't get any more love letters from Kim Jong-un.

February 6, 2018--The Nothing-Burger

With the release of Congressman Devin Nunes's pathetic three-and-a-half-page memo about the investigation of Russia's role in our 2016 presidential election, the fact that it is widely considered to be a nothingburger, for Donald Trump it makes matters worse. Much worse.

If it had been a something-burger, a full, well argued and sourced document that called the integrity of the investigation into question, if it provided incontrovertible evidence that the FBI and the Department of Justice were conspiring to remove Trump from office, Trump would not have to lie, claiming, as he did, that it "totally vindicates" him--the evidence for that would speak for itself--he could take a few leisurely victory laps to show the electorate that all along he has been telling the truth while the government has been concocting a case against him, his family, and his inner circle.

He wouldn't need to fire anyone. Even Robert Mueller would have been exposed as corrupt and possibly indictable and would have no choice but to resign in disgrace. 

Trump would not have to pardon anyone--there would be no one to pardon--nor would he be forced to testify. What would there be to question him about? And with Mueller out of the way, no one to do it.

But the fact that the Nunes memo is acknowledged by many to be a "dud," from Trump's perspective it changes everything.

Every hour that goes by, the serious media and the Democrats are chipping away at the memo, exposing more and more of its untruths and intentional omissions. Even a few Republicans have raised questions about its validity.

For example, the person the Trump people have been comfortable having as the fall guy, goofball Carter Page, according to Nunes, turns out to be a bit player in comparison to George Papadopoulos, who, by turning state's evidence, threatens to bring about the Fall of the House of Trump.

Thus, there will be no victory lap for Trump. In fact, Mueller seems to be increasing the pace of his staff's work to get as much done as possible before Trump tries to pull the plug on the investigation.

The shabbiness of the Nunes memo will also put Trump in higher gear. If it doesn't in fact exonerate him, what is he left with to do?

With the clock running out he may accelerate the firing of Rosenstein and Mueller as well as pardon all close to him who are in danger of being indicted. 

This would be the Saturday Night Massacre times ten. 

But with Republicans in the House of Representatives, very much including the now unmasked sycophantic Speaker, Paul Ryan, rolling over for Trump, all the Democrats will see themselves able to do is express outrage, jump up and down, go on MSNBC, and hope to take control of the House of Representatives in November.

What might the public do? Envision mass marches on both sides with some ugly clashes. Shades of the anti-war demonstrations and counter-demonstrations of the 60s and 70s.

The saddest thing is that no matter what Trump might do, he will still have his 35 percent of unquestioning supporters and the whole thing could turn out to be at most a two-week story.

But then again, and this is the scenario I am betting on, Ryan may emerge from his bubble and see his reputation collapsing. If that happens, he will begin to distance himself from Trump--fearing he will lose his speakership in November--which would  make it acceptable for enough Republicans in the House to join with Democrats to act like patriots and not the historical disgraces they currently are. 

There are already a few signs of this, including the fact that yesterday all GOP members of the House Intelligence Committee (what a misnomer) voted to release the Democratic rebuttal to the Munes memo. And with the stock market in danger of crashing that in itself will give the lie to Trump's claim that because of him there is a thriving economy. Remember, it still is the economy, stupid.

July 26, 2017--"I Know You're Going Crazy"

Skipping the hello, that's what Jack said.

"I'm sure you're calling out of concern."

"Of course. You know, 'Do unto others' and all that. I'm a very compassionate fellow. I know you're an atheist, but even you know about the Golden Rule." Chuckling, he sounded especially chipper.

"I'm not an atheist and if you're calling to torture me just tell me so I can hang up."

"Don't hang up. Really, don't. I know you're very upset and since I actually like you I want to share some things with you that might make you feel better."

"Share away, but I doubt it. And I'm busy." I really wasn't, but I was very upset. Not crazy, but almost.

"It's about the pardons, right, that Trump was talking about over the weekend?" I didn't say anything, but Jack knows me well enough to know what was making me crazy. "OK, no need to say a word. Just listen. I'm about to enlighten you. About how my boy operates and what's behind this latest flap."

I may have mumbled. In any case, he said, "Let's start with Jeff Sessions and then we'll move on to the pardons."

At that I did mumble something incoherent. "Good," he said, "you're still on the line and from the sound of you presumably alive." He liked that. "I read what you wrote on Saturday. That's how I knew you were upset. You never write anything on Saturday. Am I right?" I managed not to utter a sound. "About how Trump seemingly just figured out--as if he's that out of it--the connection between Sessions recusing himself from the Russia stuff and the Mueller appointment. If he hadn't recused himself, he would have been able either not to appoint a special prosecutor or if he did to find someone who would go easy on Trump. Including not subpoenaing his tax records. Because you're right. If there's a smoking gun in this it's about, as you put it, the money. Donald Trump money."

"You read my stuff?" I broke my silence.

"Every day. Even on Saturday if you post something. But though you wrote about how this is unfolding you didn't give Trump enough credit for thinking three moves in advance. Like a chess player. Sessions did recuse himself. That's a done deal. And because he did so his deputy secretary, Rod Rosenstein, is the one in charge of Mueller. Rosenstein is the one who would have to do the firing. But if Trump can get Sessions to resign, and I see that happening in a few days or at most a week or two, Trump appoints someone else who isn't recused who then takes control of the investigation. He doesn't even have to fire Rosen-whatever.  The new attorney general would do the firing."

I let him continue, "I know you're skeptical that Trump could find someone to do that because he or she wouldn't want to ruin his reputation. But remember how Nixon, who was in even more do-do, got Robert Bork to file special prosecutor Archibald Cox? You can always find someone to do anything. Even commit a murder. Just ask the Clintons," he paused, "Of course about that I'm joking. . . . Sort of."

"That would be the end of Trump," I said.

"Oh, really? People thought he was dead 20 times during the campaign from slurring John McCain to the pussy business to saying he could shoot someone and it wouldn't make a difference. But there he is in the Oval Office."

"This is crazy," I said.

"All right, let's forget Sessions and Mueller because Trump may not want to mess with them, especially with Mueller who is equally respected by Republicans and Democrats. But he floats these kinds of ideas out there through his tweets as versions of trial balloons. To see how they go down and if they do to follow through."

"You're exhausting me," I said.

"Five more minutes," Jack promised, "Let's move on to the pardons. At the end of last week as if out of the blue he began talking about them. I think it was the Washington Post that reported about that, that he was exploring with his lawyers what his pardon powers are. And then over the weekend, again by tweets, he signaled he has wide latitude even to pardon family members--did you hear that Jared, Ivanka, and Junior? He even said he believes he has the power to pardon himself."

"I wrote about all of this on Saturday. And now you're parroting it back to me. I thought you had something new to say."

"I'm getting to that."

"Please, I'm tired of all this. Which I know is part of the point. To get people to give up in exasperation."

"But in what you wrote you didn't say why he began to talk about pardons."

"True."

"So here's my point. Why I called. He did it to preview his thinking about pardons. To have them batted about for a few days in the press so that when he finally begins to issue them it's no longer breaking news. Half the people who are out to lunch will think he already pardoned everybody and will blame the liberals and the media for picking on him again. The now familiar FAKE NEWS defense. So he takes a few days of heat, the ground prepared by his previewing his thinking, and then everyone will move on to something else. Likely something he does that's intentionally outrageous to help change the subject. Like bombing North Korea."

"What?" I shouted, "Bombing North Korea?"

"About that I'm half joking," Jack said, which didn't reassure me, "But at changing the subject he's a certifiable genius. I mean, he does that two, three times a day."

"To me," I said, "he's a certifiable something else."

"Have it your way," Jack said, "You've been wrong about him before. Actually, almost always." He roared with laughter and hung up the phone.