September 24, 2018--Rosencrantz & Rosenstein Are Dead

Friday afternoon the New York Times, in a bombshell report, revealed that deputy attorney general, Ron Rosenstein, after just two weeks on the job, was so upset by the president's aberrant behavior that he thought seriously about "wearing a wire" to record some off the mayhem. 

He even thought about talking to the vice president and attorney general (his boss) about the possibility of invoking the 25th Amendment, which sets forth the conditions under which a president can be removed from office. Mind you, again, all this after just two weeks on the job.

Not only did Rosenstein contemplate this but he also told work colleagues about his concerns. Hence, the leak to the Times and the revelations.

This may have a devastating affect on the Mueller investigation in that he reports to Rosenstein and could easily wind up being fired by Trump along with the deputy AG, thereby potentially driving a stake in the heart of Mueller's efforts.

From this self-inflicted error, Trump must feel as if he died and went to heaven. 

Just as Trump was reeling from Paul Manafort flipping and the Kavanaugh nomination potentially collapsing he gets handed a get-out-of-jail-free card by his nemesis, Ron Rosenstein.

How stupid is Rosenstein? Let me count a few of the ways--

If he was so upset by what he was witnessing in the Trump White House and needed to talk about it are FBI and Justice Department colleagues the best people to whom to confess? We can only assume that as soon as Rosenstein finished unburdening himself and drifted down the DOJ hall they speed-dialed 1-800-New York Times. They had some story to share!

Doesn't Rosenstein have a wife with whom he could share this? One who would say, "I hear you darling, but one thing--make sure not to talk about any of this in the office. Especially anything about a wire or the 25th Amendment."

I know I'm sounding cynical but Mueller's investigation is as a result more precarious and Republicans now have validation for their conspiracy theories--witch hunt, rigged investigation, Deep State. I wouldn't be surprised to see GOP poll numbers increase for their midterm election candidates.

To be frank, between now and November 6th all I'm interested in is winning. Until then I don't care who's telling the truth or, for that matter, what the truth is. We're in a political life-and-death struggle and everyone has to be persistent, ruthless, and smart.

In other words, behave like Republicans.

July 31, 2018--A Fixer Scorned

To paraphrase a line from The Mourning Bride, a play by English author of the late 17th century, William Congreve, Hell hath no fury like a fixer scorned.

The fixer in this case is Michael Cohen, Donald Trump's longtime flunky and factotum who, to save his skin, seems to be singing like a canary to special counsel Robert Mueller and various DAs in New York City.

Last week we had a taste of the beans he is likely spilling since, being no fool, Cohen is able to corroborate some of their dirty dealings through dozens of tapes he made of their larcenous conversations.

The first recording to be leaked was just a morsel, an appetizer. In a two-minute tidbit we heard Trump and his personal lawyer talking about how to pay off Playboy model, Karen McDougal, with whom Trump had an 10-month-long affair. This was two weeks before the 2016 election and the last thing Trump needed was yet another, as they, forgive me, referred to these matters during Bill Clinton's randy time, a "bimbo eruption."

I am certain that Cohen's very clever lawyer and Clinton intimate, Lanny Davis, dangled this before prosecutors as part of a potential plea bargain arrangement with Mueller and the federal attorneys in the Southern District who raided Cohen's various offices and dwellings in April to get the goods on him so he in turn, to avoid spending the rest of his life in jail (Trump will not be able to pardon him from non-federal crimes he assuredly committed in New York) Davis previewed what his client would share as part of the deal--the rest of the tapes and everything else Cohen wisely squirreled away as he knew in his heart that eventually it would come to this: to save himself Trump would throw him under the bus. 

The very same Trump loyalist who proudly said on many occasions that he "would take a bullet" for the big guy.

If there was so much that could be implicating in only these two minutes what more would the dozens of other tapes reveal? One can only imagine. But one can imagine that before signing a get-out-of-jail-free card for the fixer in chief the various prosecutors will insist on hearing all the dirt Cohen has to dish. 

Get ready for a banquet of dish.

For the literary-minded, here is the larger context for the Congreve quote--

"Heav'n has no Rage like Love to Hatred turn'd, Nor Hell a Fury, like a Woman scorn'd."

This connection between love and hatred is instructive to a full understanding of the Cohen-Trump bromance.

First a little background--

Cohen grew up in Lawrence, a middle class suburb on Long Island. A place adjacent to Kennedy Airport where jumbo jets thundered over the Cohen house every minute or two, seven days a week, day and night, shaking the building's foundation. But from Lawrence high ground (there isn't much of it) on a clear day little Michael could catch a glimpse of the New York City skyline, 20 long miles away. Sort of like Gatsby peering at the green light at the end of Daisy's dock that symbolizes his hopes and dreams of breaking free from his origins. And sort of like the similar view that the adolescent Donald could strain to see from his Queens, outer-borough childhood home.

Cohen's mother was a nurse and his father a surgeon.

Cohen earned a bachelors degree from American University and, as a less then stellar student, a law degree from Thomas M. Cooley Law School, a diploma mill that came close to losing its accreditation in 2017 and 2018.  After attending a place such as Cooley, no white shoe-law firms in Manhattan were recruiting Cohen and so he had little choice but to began his law career as a personal injury attorney, as an "ambulance chaser," the bottom rung of the plaintiff food chain.

When some years later Trump laid eyes on him he saw a desperate striver, someone hungry to move on and up, but without equivalent street smarts. Someone to use and from whom he could expect unquestioning fealty. Someone if needed who would take a bullet for him.

Cohen was not difficult to reel in. He deluded himself, thinking Trump viewed him as a colleague and kindred spirit, a surrogate son, coming from similar places, having similar aspirations (to get out) but he should have known the truth about the nature of their relationship when Cohen had literally to plead with Trump to get him to come to his son's 2012 bar mitzvah.

Trump came so late, the Wall Street Journal reported, that the blessings were delayed. The future president then gave a speech in which he said he hadn't planned on attending but opted to come after Cohen "begged him to" by repeatedly badgering him, his secretary, and his children. The WSJ said the guests laughed at this, finding it believable, considering what they knew about the one-direction nature of the Trump-Cohen relationship.

And so we now have a sense of the depth and causes of scorned Cohen's feelings and how that unrequited love has turned to hate. 

Cohen thought he was a member of the Trump family but came to discover he was merely hired help.

And we can understand why Trump is again unhinged when he contemplates what Cohen has to share with prosecutors and where as a result the Mueller investigation is heading. 

Over the weekend in a tweet storm Trump (and current flunky, Rudy Giuliani) turned once again to personally excoriating the special counsel, claiming he should step aside because of his having numerous "conflicts of interest," including one I find most bizarre--that Mueller is pursuing Trump because in 2011, when Mueller was F.B.I. director, he had complaints  about membership fees at one of his golf courses. I assume overcharging as he did with Trump University.

Bottom line--Congreve got it right.

Trump National Golf Course

February 28, 2018--Jared Agonistes

The story-behind-the-story regarding last night's breaking news that White House senior advisor and son-in-law Jared Kushner had lost his top-secret security clearance is not primarily about the fact that he will no longer be privy to, for example, intelligence agencies' reports about the inner workings of the Israeli government--something it would presumably be important for Kushner to know as he strives day and night to "solve the Middle East," as his father-in-law puts it--but rather than the story primarily being about this most recent piece of juicy Oval Office gossip that chief-of-staff John Kelly gleefully cut Jared off from the nation's top secrets thus reducing his status to just-another-staffer in the snake pit that is the Trump administration; no, the story is not about what Kushner can and cannot know but rather the heart of the matter is that the feds that have been looking into Jared's background (the embattled FBI, the same FBI that is working hard on the Mueller investigation while daily being undercut by Fox News and the president) not only based their recommendation on the evidence that Kushner failed to report a meeting or two with the Russians or forgot to list a few of his hundreds of financial assets, but rather Jared is being cut off at the knees (including by Trump who threw him to the insider wolf John Kelly) because they, big time, have the goods on Jared Kushner.

The goods being the evidence the FBI uncovered of the fast-and-loose way Kushner has operated in his desperate efforts to lift his and his family's real estate empire for the mire of debt in which he has brought them as the result of his greed and arrogant overreach. 

This overreach luring him to turn to all sorts of bad guys as he scrambles to borrow money from the black economy where big money available to bottom-feeders such as Jared Kushner (and his felonious father before him in an almost biblical way) comes mainly from money laundries that as a consequence not only own your property but also own you.

And thus if you happen to work half a step behind the president in the White House owning you as you is worth a lot more than a billion or two. Putin already is the richest man ever with hidden assets conservatively estimated to total, give-or-take, $100 billion, making him twice as wealthy as Bill Gates. But to own Jared Kushner, now that's a story to behold. And fear.

Two more things. OK, three more--

First, within the federal bureaucracy it is no big deal to have a lowest-level security clearance. I know middle-level government workers who have little actual power but are excited that they have secret clearance. This places them in the top 40 percent of federal government workers because the 2.86 million of them who have such access to secret documents represent about 40 percent of the total 7.0 million workforce with that 7.0 million including postal workers. So think about Jared Kushner now having the status of the person who brings you your mail.

Second, note how casually Donald Trump abandoned his most trusted advisor. All right, his second most trusted family member. No one will ever displace Ivanka, though who knows what Trump will do next week to save his sagging skin.

And then last, isn't Jared's comeuppance evidence that the system is working? That not only is he being brought down by the little people as I am now feeling more certain his father-in-law will? Little people like those on various Mueller grand juries currently operating in Washington, DC and nearby Virginia? People Kushner has likely never noticed as he walks around with his nose aristocratically in the air.

Sorry, finally--do you think if Donald Trump was an American Mussolini Jared Kushner would have had his wings clipped?

February 6, 2018--The Nothing-Burger

With the release of Congressman Devin Nunes's pathetic three-and-a-half-page memo about the investigation of Russia's role in our 2016 presidential election, the fact that it is widely considered to be a nothingburger, for Donald Trump it makes matters worse. Much worse.

If it had been a something-burger, a full, well argued and sourced document that called the integrity of the investigation into question, if it provided incontrovertible evidence that the FBI and the Department of Justice were conspiring to remove Trump from office, Trump would not have to lie, claiming, as he did, that it "totally vindicates" him--the evidence for that would speak for itself--he could take a few leisurely victory laps to show the electorate that all along he has been telling the truth while the government has been concocting a case against him, his family, and his inner circle.

He wouldn't need to fire anyone. Even Robert Mueller would have been exposed as corrupt and possibly indictable and would have no choice but to resign in disgrace. 

Trump would not have to pardon anyone--there would be no one to pardon--nor would he be forced to testify. What would there be to question him about? And with Mueller out of the way, no one to do it.

But the fact that the Nunes memo is acknowledged by many to be a "dud," from Trump's perspective it changes everything.

Every hour that goes by, the serious media and the Democrats are chipping away at the memo, exposing more and more of its untruths and intentional omissions. Even a few Republicans have raised questions about its validity.

For example, the person the Trump people have been comfortable having as the fall guy, goofball Carter Page, according to Nunes, turns out to be a bit player in comparison to George Papadopoulos, who, by turning state's evidence, threatens to bring about the Fall of the House of Trump.

Thus, there will be no victory lap for Trump. In fact, Mueller seems to be increasing the pace of his staff's work to get as much done as possible before Trump tries to pull the plug on the investigation.

The shabbiness of the Nunes memo will also put Trump in higher gear. If it doesn't in fact exonerate him, what is he left with to do?

With the clock running out he may accelerate the firing of Rosenstein and Mueller as well as pardon all close to him who are in danger of being indicted. 

This would be the Saturday Night Massacre times ten. 

But with Republicans in the House of Representatives, very much including the now unmasked sycophantic Speaker, Paul Ryan, rolling over for Trump, all the Democrats will see themselves able to do is express outrage, jump up and down, go on MSNBC, and hope to take control of the House of Representatives in November.

What might the public do? Envision mass marches on both sides with some ugly clashes. Shades of the anti-war demonstrations and counter-demonstrations of the 60s and 70s.

The saddest thing is that no matter what Trump might do, he will still have his 35 percent of unquestioning supporters and the whole thing could turn out to be at most a two-week story.

But then again, and this is the scenario I am betting on, Ryan may emerge from his bubble and see his reputation collapsing. If that happens, he will begin to distance himself from Trump--fearing he will lose his speakership in November--which would  make it acceptable for enough Republicans in the House to join with Democrats to act like patriots and not the historical disgraces they currently are. 

There are already a few signs of this, including the fact that yesterday all GOP members of the House Intelligence Committee (what a misnomer) voted to release the Democratic rebuttal to the Munes memo. And with the stock market in danger of crashing that in itself will give the lie to Trump's claim that because of him there is a thriving economy. Remember, it still is the economy, stupid.

January 31, 2018--Mr. Ludwig

For decades I have been attempting unsuccessfully to locate my 7th grade teacher, Mr. Ludwig. I was a student in his English class at PS 244 in Brooklyn in 1950, nearly 70 years ago.

More than any other teacher, in fact more than almost any other person, he changed the course of my life.

From time to time I googled him but to no avail.

But then on Friday there was his obituary in the New York Times. 

I knew more about Mr. Ludwig than was usual (it was rare in that era to know even a teacher's' first name) as he shared stories from his life, which I soaked up, seeking models of adulthood to emulate. 

Obituary from the New York Times-- 

Bert R. Ludwig was born July 25, 1920, passed away January 25, 2018. He was predeceased by his adored wife Phyllis of 60 years and his brother Bob. He is survived by his sister-in-law Claire and brother-in-law Paul and nieces Joan and Karen and their husbands Warren and Jay and their children and grandchildren.  

Bert graduated from Columbia University where he was accepted at age 14. He was extremely bright and talented. He sang and played the violin, accompanied by his brother on the piano. They played many gigs together in the Borscht Belt.  

Bert was a lieutenant in the United States Coast Guard during World War II. He was the Chief Communications Officer on a flotilla of LC1 Landing Craft during the invasion of Normandy, Omaha Beach and Utah Beach on June 6, 1944. He was also in the North African Campaign and the invasion of Sicily and Salerno.  

After the war Bert was honorably discharged and he worked for the FBI; but finally decided that education was his first love. He became a teacher, Assistant Principal and principal for the New York City school system. Bert and Phyllis enjoyed 40 wonderful summers in their home in Montauk, Long Island where they entertained their many friends and relatives. 

They loved living in Manhattan and were true New Yorkers enjoying all that Manhattan had to offer. They will be missed by those of us who knew and loved them. 

Part of Mr. Ludwig's appeal was that he was so culturally different from my father that it is fair to say he became a surrogate for me. 

He was the kind of man I was wanting to become--adventurous; worldly; heroic; well read; emotionally expressive; playful; though soft, a "real man" with a touch of class. And since most of my classmates and I who came under his spell had one or more immigrant parents ("old fashioned" was the way I thought about that), he was fully American and thus doubly attractive.

He not only taught English but also coached the school's basketball and softball teams. So I had academic lessons from him during the day and life lessons after school in the gym or on the baseball diamond.

He told us about his service in the Second World War and how he had been part of the D-Day landing. He shared dramatic photos of himself and his comrades storming Omaha Beach.

And he told us that before becoming a teacher he had been an FBI agent and recounted vivid stories about his training and some of the cases on which he worked. This was very different from what I heard at home from my father and uncles, which was either criticism or silence.

I entered his class as a virtual non-reader. I am embarrassed to admit I had more interest in Batman and Superman comics than Two Years Before the Mast. To motivate those of us lagging behind in our cultural education he created a chart on which our names were listed in alphabetical order--with me thus at the exposed bottom of the list--on which he would paste a star for every book we checked out of the library and read to completion.

While many of my classmates quickly filled the chart with enough stars to rival those in the Hayden Planetarium, I was the only one who remained starless.  Then one morning, when I arrived at his classroom and slid into my chair, on top of my desk was a new, non-library book of Sherlock Holmes stories. Puzzled, I looked toward Mr. Ludwig, who with nods and winks gestured that there was no mistake, the book was for me. Not just to read but to read and then keep.

I slipped it surreptitiously (a word he taught us) into my schoolbag and once back home put it on the shelf above the table on which I did my homework. It sat there untouched for more than two weeks until, feeling guilty and pressured, I finally picked it up and read the first story, "The Hound of the Baskervilles," and then, swept along by Sir Arthur Conan Doyle's narrative magic, I read a second and after that a third. 

I stayed up all night reading the book, hiding excitedly under my blanket with the pages illuminated by my Boy Scout flashlight. 

I hid beneath the covers because to my father, reading books led to men becoming effeminate and after that . . . they would turn into men like his brother Ben, who lived a closeted life surrounded by stacks of magazines and books.

In school the next day, with Mr. Ludwig standing by the chart with his box of stars at the ready, when he asked if any of us had completed a new book, after the usual two girls waved their raised hands to report that they had finished Little Women, avoiding eye contact, in a whisper I revealed that I had finally read something other than a comic book.

Without fuss or comment, Mr. Ludwig affixed a star next to my name. And after that, through the rest of the school year I not only filled my space but my personal firmament of stars spilled over to occupy the unallocated space below my name.

I devoured anything by O'Henry or Robert Louis Stevenson or Richard Henry Dana, Mark Twain, and of course more, always more Sherlock Holmes. 

To this day,  I am an voracious reader with a personal library of read books numbering in the thousands, filling every available shelf I can fit on our crowded walls.

In 1950 I also was a non-writer. As a poor speller I was inhibited when I needed to complete written assignments. Noting this, early in the term, Mr. Ludwig asked me to remain in class after the bell.  Knowing how I admired him, he told me that Winston Churchill, when he was a young student, also could not write because of spelling problems. "And," he said, "look how well he now writes. What you need to do is just to write, to let the words flow and worry about the spelling later. That's what editors are for--to correct your grammer and speling."

He continued, "And don't forget that Einstein also had problems as a boy with both reading and writing. Not that you're a Churchill or an Einstein," he winked with a smile--he wanted to make sure I wouldn't become too full of myself, "But you can do better."

And I did: Later in life I wrote and published widely. I am the author of dozens of articles and stories and five books. All traceable to the affect Mr. Ludwig had on me at that delicate time.

Then there was what to do about my graceless, overgrown body. At the tender age of 12, I was already six-feet-five inches tall. I had fears I would grow until the only hope for me would be to join the bearded lady in the circus.

But as PS 244's basketball coach, Mr. Ludwig saw past my slumping posture and awkwardness, instead sensing the makings of a potential center for the school's basketball team. 

To help me become viable as the possible pivot for the Rugby Rockets, in those days a team's tallest player would position himself directly under the basket where he would hopefully block a few shots, do some rebounding, and score some easy layups, Mr. Ludwig spent long afternoon hours encouraging me (he believed in my potential more than I) and teaching me the moves I would need to excel in inter-school competition.

Somehow, after a few months in the gym I literally stood taller, had filled out a bit, and became one of the team's most reliable scorers. The Rockets then, with a team made up of players more talented than I, became perennial challengers for the Brooklyn borough championship. 

And finally, there was my singing. Or rather, my inability to carry a tune.

When Mr. Ludwig had the class prepare a musical "production" for PS 244's annual showcase, he had two pieces of advice, which to this day, metaphorically, have stood me in good stead--If you can't carry a tune, move your lips, lip-sync. In other words, if you are unable do something well, pretend you can. 

And, seek a role, if necessary--more metaphors--that lets you, if necessary, lay low. In this case behind a scrim lit-from-behind, as he had me do when one year's show was about tribal South Africa where I, again the overgrown me, stomped behind a suspended bed sheet so that only my attenuated shadow was projected to the audience while the rest of the class, in harmony, sang--

See him there,
The Zulu warrior.
See him there,
The Zulu chief, chief, chief, chief.

Mr Ludwig found a way to transform this frog into a prince of a chief!

For me, that is his legacy. Helping me aquire the skills and confidence to become anything my talents and hard work would permit.

For decades I have been searching for him to thank him with words that I, as an adult, finally acquired.

I failed to find him until now when I read he had died and that his funeral service last Sunday would be in New York City.

I went, hoping I would be welcome at what I suspected would be an intimate family affair. Though I was the only former student able to attend, I felt I was there representing the many others upon whom Mr. Ludwig had had such a profound effect.

I also realized I had been searching for him in all the wrong places. 

He was closer to me than I had imagined. I didn't need the Internet or Google to locate him. He had always been close at hand. Right here, within me, where has has been since 1950 and will be until I finally join him.

January 29, 2018--Reiterating

With the Mueller investigation at full boil, with so many moving parts, it is again time to step back and look for a big picture that links most if not all the seemingly disconnected pieces.

Previously, I've turned to Ockham's Razor, employing that ancient philosophical tool that seeks the simplest but most comprehensive explanation when confronted with seemingly unrelated, even contradictory elements.

In Trump's case we have just this week seen the White House and the Trump enablers at Fox News and Republicans in Congress in almost complete disarray.

There has been a sustained campaign in general to undermine the credibility of the FBI and Robert Mueller's investigation in particular. There has been the absurd charge attributed to the president that the reason Mueller is incapable of being fair is because of a dispute about membership fees at one of Trump's golf courses! And we have been hearing about a secret Illuminati society within the FBI leading efforts to depose Trump and his administration.

And of course there is the revelation that back in June Trump ordered the White House counsel, Donald McGhan, to fire Mueller, even though he does not have the power to do so. He in turn threatened to resign (in a rare burst of integrity from among the Trump people) if forced to proceed.

There is more, much more. All of it, though, made coherent with the help of the 14th century Franciscan friar--

Trump's desperate behavior is because ONLY HE KNOWS THE FULL TRUTH AND EXTENT OF HIS OWN INVOLVEMENT IN RUSSIA-GATE, and because that truth is so devastating, he is frantically grasping at anything that he feels can rescue him from this self-made crisis.

Trump alone knows the full and truthful story of his and his minions' involvement in colluding with and encouraging the Russian government to intervene on his behalf in the 2016 election.

Only Trump knows fully what he and his acolytes have done to cover up, to obstruct their malfeasance. What he and they have done to obstruct justice.

Trump is the only one who knows all the details of Trump, Inc's business involvements with Russia, including the massive sums of money that were likely laundered in the process.

Trump alone knows the truth about what is included in the infamous dossier. Not the Clinton campaign's minimal involvement, which they have attempted to generalize, but Trump's business dealings in Russia as well as his possible involvement with Russian prostitutes.

Only Trump knows what his children and son-in-law have been up to in regard to everything from conspiratorial activities to money laundering to attempts to subvert justice.

Only he knows the full story of his adulterous affair with pornstar "Stormy Daniels" and what appears to be Melania understandably leaving his side.

Again, the panicky behavior we are witnessing is the result of the truth about Trump's involvements, the full extent of which he and only he knows.

It's enough to make one crazy. And that is what we are seeing. But the end is near. Quite near.

April 13, 2017--Bromance Kaput

The New York Times lead story on Wednesday said it all--"Trump's Sudden Shift on Russia Leaves Heads Spinning."

It referred to the White House's accusation Tuesday that Russia is engaged in a cover-up of the Syrian government's deployment of Sarin gas on its civilian population. This accusation was based on an alleged declassified National Security Council report on the attack which also included a rebuttal of Moscow's assertion that insurgents were responsible for the use of chemical weapons. Trump's people claimed that the Syrians and Russians released "false narratives" to mislead the world community about their own complicitous involvement.

What happened to all the flattering references to Vladimir Putin? What happened to the possibility of a new partnership if Donald Trump were elected? Why does it feel as if the Cold War has been resumed? What are all the accusations and saber rattling about?

As in the past I am looking for the simplest explanation that answers the most seemingly-puzzling questions.

Mainly, what's in it for Putin to allow or encourage its Syrian ally to use poison gas and why is Trump so suddenly accusing Putin of being an international war criminal? What happened to the bromance?

To answer these questions requires us to explore each of their likely motives.

For Trump it is to try once more to deflect and overwhelm the on-going investigations about Russia's hacking the 2016 presidential election to undermine Hillary Clinton's campaign in an attempt to help Trump emerge victorious.

Trump's pinprick bombing of a Syrian airfield, his movements on the world stage, especially the recent meeting with the Chinese president Xi and Secretary of State Tillerson's Moscow visit did in fact for a day or two deflect attention from the Trump campaign team's possible collaboration with the Russian hackers.

But Xi is back in China and the focus has shifted again to what did or did not happen during the campaign. Ominous for Trump is the new story that one of his senior foreign policy advisors, Carter Page, with FISA authorization, is being investigated by the F.B.I. to see if he was or is a covert Russian operative. With former NSC director Michael Flynn seeking immunity, the Page investigation is a potential bombshell and it is thus understandable that Trump would want to change the subject. The best way at the moment to change it is to demonologize Putin.

Putin has a much more complex agenda. He is seeking nothing less than the destabilization of the Western world and the resulting return of Russia to its prior Soviet glory. This process is greatly assisted by direct Russian interference in democratic elections from France to Germany to of course the United States.

This process of Sovietization is also facilitated by helping to bring about chaos in Western societies. So it should be no surprise that Putin's Russia would ally itself directly and indirectly with murderous dictators such as Bashar al-Assad, rogue states such as Iran, and terrorist groups including Hezbollah.

Trump wants to survive; Putin wants to dominate. Their tangled relationship serves both of their purposes--Putin having the goods on Trump effectively neutralizes him and Trump as intentional disruptor thrives in a roiled world.

Here, though, is what to worry about--

We do not want to see either of them become desperate. In addition to historical forces we are talking about two very fragile people. Individuals with fragile egos can be particularly dangerous if they have powerful tools or wield catastrophic weapon systems. Obviously, both Putin and Trump do.

Which brings me again to North Korea--

If Trump's survival strategy, his desperate and increasing need to deflect the search for the truth about his possible involvement with the hackers, if that strategy includes looking for opportunities to have the tail wag the dog, the most  fearsome example of that is not more targeted raids on Syria but a nuclear encounter with North Korea. If that were to occur, and I fear we may be headed in that direction, who any longer would be asking what Paul Manafort knew-and-when-did-he-know-it or on which Russia payroll Michael Flynn or Carter Page are to be found.

We would have our eyes on other matters. Mushroom clouds, for example.

March 21, 2016--The Russian Connection

Here's what happened and it's pretty obvious.

Admittedly this is speculation but since it explains most of Donald Trump's behavior regarding Russia's tampering in our election, let me air it out--

Last spring when it was obvious Donald Trump would win the nomination and then that summer, after securing it, one or more members of Trump's entourage with on-going Russian connections (fierce supporter General Michael Flynn and/or campaign chairman Paul Manafort) told candidate Trump that their Russian connections, or handlers, indicated that they had the capacity to hack into Hillary Clinton's campaign and in that way dig up enough dirt to help the underdog, Donald Trump, win the election.

As someone who loves winning above all else, Trump with a nod and a wink gave them the go-ahead.

The rest of the election is history.

All the while, the FBI or NSA, as part of their routine work, were tapping into the Russian ambassador's and other Russian officials' electronic communications.

In the process, they stumbled on Flynn's and Manafort's machinations and began a deeper investigation into their work with Russia, including their involvement in the Clinton sabotage effort.

So here's the big problem--

If a version of this is true, the connected dots lead directly back to Donald J.Trump.

Trump of course knows the full extent of this, especially his own direct involvement, and thus the frantic attempt to divert attention from this festering situation and out of desperation turn the heat on his predecessor, Barack Obama, accusing him of "wiretapping" Trump Tower.

Here's how this will unfold--

Paul Manafort, eventually facing 20 years in prison, will make a James McCord, Watergate-like deal with the prosecutors and throw President Trump under the bus.

That is unless Trump has already been pardoned by his successor, President Mike Pence.

Left to Right--Manafort, Trump, Flynn

July 7, 2016--Hillary, Oh Hillary

It's even worse than I imagined.

Hillary Clinton was fortunate not to have been indicted, but what the director of the FBI said about her is devastating.

If she had been charged with crimes, she would have had to drop out of the presidential race, Joe Biden would have been nominated, and then gone on to easily defeat Donald Trump. But though "cleared" of criminal wrongdoing, the focus will not be on the legal process but on what she did and lied about. There is a lot of both.

If she were headed to trial that would have been the story. Now it's about her irresponsibility and chutzpah. Chutzpah for the many intentional lies she told--

That she used private e-mail innocently (there was supposedly no illegal "intent")

That she had only one email account and device (she had four or five)

That she never received classified material via email (she did at least 100 times)

That she failed to set up a secure private server and system (in spite of her claims that she did)

That she turned over to the FBI all but her most personal emails (1,000 are still missing)

Etcetera

In addition, among other things, she will need to reconcile and explain away the following chronology--

The FBI investigation has been proceeding, some would say, dragging on, for exactly a year and there were dozens of agents and lawyers assigned to getting to the bottom of things.

Then in a sudden rush, seven days ago, three weeks before the Democratic convention, Bill Clinton in the now infamous encounter with attorney general Loretta Lynch on the tarmac in Phoenix, self-reportedly, schmoozed with her about golf; grandchildren; and, according to the New York Times, that if Hillary were to be elected, the possibility of Lynch staying on as AG. When the meeting and the nature of their conversation leaked out, she recused herself from the investigation. One might say, this was irrelevant since it now appears that the fix was already in.

Just three days after that, this past Saturday afternoon, for up to four hours Hillary was "interviewed" by a team of FBI agents and lawyers.

Two days later, Tuesday, though criticized severely by FBI director, James Comey, she slithered off the indictment hook.

Later that same day, some would say in an attempt to change the subject, she and Barack Obama, in North Carolina, campaigned together.

After so many months, quite a week of action.

I am not a conspiracy-oriented person, but . . .

Two examples--

After a year of presumably careful investigation, it then took the FBI only two-and-a-half days to scrub the details of Clinton's lengthy "interview"? They must have worked around the clock over the July 4th weekend.

And was it just a coincidence that Barack Obama, the nation's ultimate law enforcer and constitutional law professor, just happened to be campaigning with Clinton on the day she wasn't indicted? Might he have known when this was to be announced well in advance (Comey and Lynch report to him) and to help Clinton, his legacy-assurer, he . . . ?

Voters will draw their own conclusions.

I've already done so.

I'll be sitting out this election.

In the past, the choice has too often come down to voting for the candidate I perceive to be the lesser of two evils. This time, it's to choose between two sociopaths.

For me, that's too much of a stretch.

May 26, 2016--Hillary Clinton: Drip, Drip, Drip

World War III will have to wait to Friday because there is breaking news--

I wrote and posted what follows on July 27, 2015. About a year ago.

It feels appropriate to republish it in the light of the scathing report revealed yesterday by the State Department regarding Hillary Clinton's use, while Secretary of State, of a personal email server.

This report we should note is not from a partisan Republican source or candidate but from a Democratic State Department. Among other things the department's inspector general concluded that this was not authorized or permitted by State Department rules.

The next drip will be from the FBI, with whom Clinton will soon be testifying. In the light of this new report, an indictment would not be a surprise.

Thus far, Hillary's defenders are saying, "Colin Powell did it. So why isn't he in trouble?" The inspector general gave that answer--at the time Powell was secretary, the rules were different.

One can only imagine what the Republicans and Donald Trump will do with this.

Here, from last July--

I recently read Tim Weiner's new biography of Richard Nixon, One Man Against the World: The Tragedy of Richard Nixon, which focuses on the various criminal activities of Nixon and his associates. Especially the climate that existed in the White House and in Nixon's mind that led to the break-in at the Democratic National Committee headquarters at the Watergate office complex and the subsequent coverup and resignation.

Nixon's involvement in the break-in was not direct but the result of his obsession with secrecy and feelings that there were conspiratorial forces at work that would deny his reelection in 1972. His men, thus, carried out his implied agenda.

Nixon got in deep and direct trouble when he tried to have the FBI's investigation of the break-in squelched and then led the cover-up, all the while lying by claiming he knew nothing in advance of the break-in (likely true) and knew nothing about a cover-up (patently and feloniously false).

As a result, he was brought down, named an "unindicted co-conspirator," and forced to resign the presidency.

This brings me to Hillary Clinton and the many problems with her emails while she was Secretary of State.

For whatever reasons, rather than use secure State Department channels of communication, she used her own, personal email account to carry out official business. There is no disputing that.

But under pressure, when news about this began to leak out earlier this year, she denied any wrongdoing, claiming what she did was neither against federal rules nor, much more significant, was not in any way illegal.

Under further pressure, she turned over to the State Department 30,000 official emails from her private server, deleting other thousands of a personal nature--for example, those about plans for her daughter Chelsea's wedding.

All along the way she alleged this was a non-issue, driven more by presidential politics then anything else. She held herself above the fray, claiming she had more important things to focus on--how to build an agenda, for example, to strengthen the economy, one that especially helps the middle class.

But the issue just wouldn't go away.

Daily, it is becoming clear that there are legitimate and substantial issues that were not just the result of Republican saber-rattling. As more and more was leaked and reported about what was in the actual emails, it became clearer and clearer that there is a there there.

Just at the end of last week, the New York Times, which broke the original email story in March, reported that some of Clinton's emails included classified information, which, if true, is potentially illegal.

The State Department inspector general joined by the intelligence community's independent inspector general issued a joint statement which revealed that their review of a random sample of just 40 of the former Secretary's emails revealed that four did in fact contain classified material, "Government secrets."

Clinton's response was again that this is a distraction and that nothing untoward occurred on her watch.

The two inspectors general would disagree. In fact, they recommended that an investigation be launched. A criminal investigation. Clinton didn't quite say, "I am not a crook." But . . .

It is significant to note again that the intelligence community's inspector general is a non-partisan and that though the State Department is Obama's State Department, and thus controlled by Democrats, its inspector general did not hold back.

This is feeling like the same kind of drip, drip, drip that didn't work to defend Nixon. He pretended that he was ignoring the Watergate investigation, claiming he was too busy defending the world and defeating Communism. The tapes of his White House offices and telephones put the lie to that. He was obsessed by Watergate and the judicial and congressional investigations and was active daily counseling and coaching his confederates about what to say and which lies to tell.

I suspect Hillary Clinton in dong much the same thing. I mean obsessing. She knows the truth and we are learning more about it every week. I suspect there will be an outcome similar to Nixon's--her emails are not unlike his tapes. There are likely numerous smoking guns in them and I would be surprised if Clinton is able to stay in the race for the presidential nomination. Polls are already showing she trails Jeb Bush and Scott Walker in key battleground states. This will only get worse as we learn more.

It's time for Democrats to be thinking about serious alternatives. It wouldn't surprise me to see Joe Biden join the race and perhaps John Kerry. Elizabeth Warren may also be rethinking her decision not to run.

Who knows, by fall a Democrat clown car might be revving up.

I am not a crook.

October 16, 2015--Hillary

Unless there is something that the FBI will uncover in Hillary Clinton's emails that is indictable, after Tuesday's Democratic debate, not only will she waltz to the nomination but a year from November she will be elected president.

Bernie Sanders might have been an old fashioned gentleman when he said "enough about these damn emails," but politically, for all intents and purposes, that ended this line of questioning.

He is not privy to what the FBI is rooting about in, and there is more than a small chance that they will uncover a smoking gun. That would change everything. But as things stand, I stick by my prediction.

Clinton was so impressive that Joe Biden now will decide to stay out of the race. Maybe he even feels relieved. He had little chance of upsetting her. And he knows now that she is capable of roughing him up as she did to Sanders in regard to his record about guns and his naivety with world affairs ("With all due respect, senator, the United States is not Denmark"). Does Joe need to go through any of this in a losing cause?

He'd go from being the potential savior to spoiler. As of now there is nothing to save.

But above all here is why I am feeling so certain that the nomination and president is hers to lose--

Women.

Pretty much all the women I know have been planning to vote for Hillary. I mean even before the debate. To some it was a hold-you-nose thing. Yes, she's flawed. Deeply. But she is no worse than any of the others and . . . she's a woman.

Being female was the decider.

After Tuesday, checking in with a number of politically active women, I found they are now enthusiastic supporters. They are feeling that she excelled (admittedly the other four candidates were quite weak--I am trying to be kind) but she stood more than a little above them.

It was easy to imagine her back in the White House. This time as the president she always wanted to be.

So, they will not only vote for her, they now plan to contribute money and become active supporters. They will do  everything they can to encourage others to vote for her as well as become volunteers in her campaign.

And if this morning's rumors are true that she will select Julian Castro to be her running mate, it's all over. He is the former mayor of San Antonio and currently secretary of Housing and Urban Development. And, of course, is Mexican-American.

He they are together--

April 10, 2015--Ready for Your Closeup?

Though I hate the proliferation of surveillance cameras that make me feel that wherever I am under scrutiny--on the street, in my car, going through a red light, in my Manhattan apartment elevator, getting coffee at a 7-Eleven--I am having some second thoughts about being tracked and continuously videotaped.

All our traditional notions of privacy have been obliterated by these cameras, urban crowding, social networks, big data mining (check out the explosion of ads targeted to you on Facebook), and a youth culture that thrives on self-promotion and exhibitionism.

Then of course there are all the people whose smartphones are also video cameras, the hackers and, more than anything else, the various domestic surveillance programs of federal agencies such as the CIA, FBI, and especially the NSA. Pretty much everything that someone wants to know about you--from the sources and amounts of your income to your medical records to your shopping and reading habits--are readily available. Thus, though some may hate knowing this--and for whom the only alternative is to live in the North Woods off the grid--by now there is virtually nothing one can do to retain any shred of privacy.

And then there are the benefits that are less discussed--how these images and data enhance legitimate efforts by the police and justice system to keep us safe.

In the news in the last day or two are glaring examples.

First, in Boston, at the conclusion of the trial of Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, with his brother one of the Boston Marathon bombers, we were reminded of how large a part surveillance cameras on the street where they placed their pressure-cooker bombs contributed to their being tracked down and apprehended in only days, which thwarted their plans to explode more bombs in New York City. Without the images of them walking calmly in lockstep toward the bomb site it would have likely taken many days or weeks to apprehend them.

And also a few days ago, in North Charleston, SC, a white policeman, Micahel Slager, was caught on a smartphone camera when he gunned down and murdered a black man, Walter Scott, who from the images it was clear was posing no threat to the officer. Without the video it is likely that it would have been easier than it will be at the eventual trial to cover up the truth of what occurred.

So how to think about this is complicated.